Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And you’re seeing the proof of that now flow through and we have great visibility to that in the back half of the year. So, put it on the table, our assumptions for the back half of the years continued slow and gradual recovery of the category in total. We have and continue to gain share of total at home coffee and single-serve. And then an improving margin and that’s driven by pricing flowing through the P&L, moderation, and inflation and our ability to focus on productivity now, that our supply chain is in really good shape across the board. Our customer service on coffee has been fantastic. So, let me talk a little bit about refreshment beverages and it’s a, it is a fantastic story that I’m glad you raised, because we certainly don’t take it for granted nor should anyone else.

What’s been working for us is three factors. We’ve been gaining share in a growing category and I don’t mean to make light of it because it’s really each one of these is an important double-click, but it’s driven by marketing, innovation, and really importantly outstanding retail execution. So, gaining share in growing category is always a positive thing. Our pricing and productivity have been catching up to inflation. There was – we were chasing inflation for a long period of time. We were able to narrow that Gap. And I think importantly, consumer resilience has allowed the category to withstand all the pricing that was required to offset that inflation. Now, last point is an area that we continue to watch very carefully. And we’re seeing a general elasticity hold up nicely.

But we’re seeing some greater elasticities in some of the segments within LRB that we will watch and adjust to. But, if I were to summarize the cold beverage business, growing margin, and share, and growing category, certainly a formula for success. We plan to continue to do everything I just said, plus add new partnerships as we’ve done with C4 most recently and then more recently La Colombe.

Operator: Our next question is from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan. You may now go ahead.

Andrea Teixeira : Thank you. Good morning. I have a couple of questions to the Sudhanshu’s point on site EPS and then a question to Bob on the Pod. First on the EPS growth outlook for Q3, what would be the underlying growth ex non-operational items for the quarter because we understand there were no operational items in Q3 last year? And the question for Bob on the Pods would be the shipment inflection. Should we expect shipments to converge to consumption in Q4? Or kind of like the embedding what the outlook that you gave for the fourth quarter? Or could you bridge the impact for the private-label exits, which is one of the factors that was a headwind in the quarter and also in the second half? And sorry for the two-parted question.

But on this on – the on the price and improved mix as you exit this, this third-party manufacturing, should we not – so with the private-label should we expect pricing to lap in Q3? Or use – expect to still have some benefit on pricing for pods into the second half of the year? Thank you.

Sudhanshu Priyadarshi : So, let me take the first one. First, I would urge you to think about back half in total with the cadence between Q3 and Q4 EPS, just the matter of phasing. Our second half growth is expected to be largely Q4 loaded reflecting the expected flow of investment spend and the cadence of pricing and productivity relative to inflation. In forecasting quarter three EPS, last year, we have no non-operating items in Q3. We had in Q4, which we expect that to be minimal. But the reason we is modestly higher year-over-year. There are three key components. One is U.S. refreshment beverages. We are lapping the year ago pricing and we are forecasting heavier investments. U.S. coffee positive OI growth as margin begin to inflect in quarter three and then more to come in quarter four.