Kemper Corporation (NYSE:KMPR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

James McKinney: So we don’t disclose our assumptions on that standpoint other than what we can give you is what we have been seeing more recently is something that’s much more comparable to kind of some of the historical norms. There’s still some inflation inside there. We see a higher level. You might think about low double digits on some of the things that we’re seeing from a commercial perspective, but auto may be running more in that kind of 5%, 6% kind of area. Any way you look at it, this does take into account what we think is the mix component that would be there, both from a state perspective, a coverage perspective and other. And so what we’re trying to give you is kind of the net answer. It includes what the earned rate and other elements are going to come in.

If you think about kind of the framework that we outlined before, where we talked about jumping off of kind of that normalized underlying, think about sequential improvement as it relates to the — basically the additional earned rate coming in and underwriting actions offsetting effectively some of the trend. What I would suggest is, you’ll get — maybe you’re adding at this point in time, 1 point — 1.5 points inside there for a trend just because some of the underwriting actions on a sequential basis aren’t going to continue to materially increase from that perspective. So they won’t fully offset trend. So sort of giving you any advice, maybe you got a little bit there. But you should basically kind of be coming to that outcome where you’re baseline way to kind of think about improvement and begin to think are we going to be a little faster, a little slower than that would be, again, kind of that earned premium change earning in, maybe 1 point, 1.5 points difference from effectively trend kind of exceeding those underwriting actions and then essentially your answer begins to fall out and then you can appropriately adjust up or down relative to you think the additional progress we’ll make against that.

Brian Meredith: Got you. Got you. That’s — my point I was just trying to get to is that if you missed your thought of like getting to that number by the end of the — underwriting profit by the end of the year, it’s going to be because trend is running hotter than you have expected.

James McKinney: It would be. We obviously would corresponding update guidance as we went, but it would be — this would be something unforeseen, right, and significant, to some degree, not — it should not be — if we’re talking about 1 point or 2 throughout the year, a little higher, a little lower, we’re comfortable relative to the guidance in that, that we’re — we provided here. So again that’s been something . We’re pretty comfortable with thinking — with the thought of profitability.

Brian Meredith: I get it. So we’ve learned in the last 2 years, nothing surprising, right? So second question — Yes, I get it. I get it. I get it. The second one, I’m just curious, California, it looks like you all filed for and were approved for 6.9%. I know a competitor of yours actually achieved a lot more than that. I think it was north of 17%. Does that make you kind of reconsider — rethink your strategy with respect to getting rate in California?