Karat Packaging Inc. (NASDAQ:KRT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Michael Hoffman: Right, right, and the way I sort of characterize it, 1Q negative 10%, 2Q sort of up 5% to 10%, 3Q up 10% to 15%, 4Q up 20% to 25%, that blends you into you know, call it an 8% number, that’s a high single digit. But would you discourage us from thinking about it that way?

Jian Guo: No, I wouldn’t. I think the overall trend makes sense. Obviously part of it depends on the timing of the shipment, especially as we think about quarter end, but I think overall the trend, it makes sense.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. And then your margin outlook 32% to 33% straddles the 32.2% for the year, so it you know a slide down to an 80 basis points and you’re dealing with a negative in the first quarter. So the nature of this question is, are we looking for increased number of skews and better quality of what’s being sold is what helps overcome a headwind in margins in 1Q and then an improving trend to get you to, call it the midpoint 32.5%, which would be up modestly year-over-year on a full year basis at the midpoint. Is that the right assumptions about how that’s happening?

Alan Yu: Michael, Michael, let me answer that question. We’re going to see more of a higher margin in the first quarter and second quarter, and I want to see a lesser margin in the second half of the 2023. That’s one of the strategy that we were seeing is because we are going to go full ahead in terms of competing in the market, starting the second quarter, second half of the year, as we have more capacity in terms of facility space. And yes, and earlier Jian mentioned that in the fourth quarter we’re going to see €“ actually starting in third quarter, fourth quarters, we’re going to see a more of an increase, because historically our increase year-over-year has been around 15% to 22% year-over-year growth, and that’s where we’re going to see the momentum of that part, mainly because of our additional sales rep that we’ve hired, as well as the additional warehouse suite that we have to service the new geographic area customers.

We mentioned that in the past years, our goal is to continue to grow into the area that we have not touched. That is the southeast, Midwest and the east coast, and finally we are having €“ with the additional space that we added, we’ll be able to accommodate growth in that area.

Michael Hoffman: Okay, and just so I make sure I heard this correctly. If I’m looking at the margin trend, you’re higher in the first half than you are in the second half, which means you have a sequential improvement from the year end 4Q into the first half, in order to land at a midpoint of 32.5% for the full year, which is the €“ you know your guide 32% to 33%?

A – Alan Yu: Correct, yeah.

Michael Hoffman: Okay, and then I don’t want to belabor the fourth quarter much. I get some of the dynamics were happening that were out of your control between down equipment and getting product from overseas. But if you €“ and I haven’t had a chance to do this, because I’m on the road and so I confess I should have done it myself, but I haven’t, so I’m asking you. If you account for €“ let me ask it a different way. You gave guidance that would’ve landed us at about 33.2% for the margin for the quarter, and we came in at 32%. So what is €“ what accounts for that 120 basis points? I’m assuming some of it’s the write-offs and some of it is the timing of product that got disrupted because of say the equipment failures, but I would like to hear sort of what’s €“ what made up some of that 120 basis points?

A – Alan Yu: Jian, would you? I mean me, my understanding it’s the write-off, but Jian can go into detail on that part.

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