And the other part that also impacts us on the mix side is that we’ll be getting more bare versus the higher-margin coated product from our customers as they really focus on trying to meet their minimum contractual obligations to us. So that by itself is going to be roughly, I would say, half of what we’re looking at, the downside. The other part is we expect, Neal talked about those higher metal costs, which are going to continue to be extended, okay? And then — so what we have those two together will be about $10 million to $12 million of that bridge to what we did in the third quarter. And then finally, the higher major maintenance spending this year due to the — just the timing of some of the spending of the year, as compared to the third quarter, we’ll have about a $6 million increase in major maintenance spending in the fourth quarter.
So when you bridge that all together, that’s about a $16 million to $18 million difference, which really leads us to the outlook we’re looking for the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter.
Timna Tanners: Okay. Helpful. I’ll just ask one more and hand it over. But on the $100 million increase in CapEx, obviously, pretty big amount it seemed like to us. So just — can you clarify, I think in the past, we’ve kind of assumed flattish CapEx from 2024 to 2023. Should we just add like $100 million or more to that number? Or how should we think about the cadence of that spending?
Keith Harvey: No, no. It won’t be. And we’ll come out with those numbers in February. But we — there will be additional spending that goes on in the fourth quarter, Timna. So that $100 million won’t just parlay over. And we’ve only spent — we spent $140 million year-to-date.
Neal West: Actually over two years.
Keith Harvey: Total, over two years, we spent over $140 million on it. So that spending will come, as Neal said, over the next nine months. So we’ll give you more outlook for that, but there will be additional spending in the fourth quarter for that line. Now let me talk a little bit about the spending on that, Timna, because I agree with you. I mean I don’t like cost overruns. But I think with every major player that’s making major investments, especially during these last couple of years of high inflation, it’s really been a challenge to bring these projects in. If you take a look at that $100 million bucket, a significant part of it is material cost which have gone up. And then labor constitutes another percentage of that, so higher labor costs, all associated with inflation.
And then finally, just getting the scope and engineering changes to match exactly what we need and our customers’ need really led to that overall $100 million, but the majority of that is material and labor.
Timna Tanners: Okay. So you’re not prepared to give us guidance for what CapEx might be at in 2024?
Keith Harvey: No. We’ll do that in February.
Timna Tanners: Got it. I’ll hand off. Thank you again.
Keith Harvey: Thank you, Timna.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Bill Peterson: Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking the questions.
Keith Harvey: Yeah. Good morning, Bill.
Bill Peterson: Yeah. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on the packaging side. So I guess, can you give us a rough split or ballpark on what the exposure between bev can and coated food would be? And I guess maybe on the bev can side, I guess, how confident are you that, that portion of the business has bottomed?
