JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript March 20, 2024
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. misses on earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $1.21 EPS, expectations were $2.32. JKS isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Hello ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by for JinkoSolar Holdings Co. Limited Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. After management’s prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, today’s conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today’s call, to Ms. Stella Wang, JinkoSolar’s Investor Relations. Please proceed, Stella.
Stella Wang: Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today for JinkoSolar’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The company’s results were released early today and available on the company’s IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as on Newswire Services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today’s earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website. On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; Mr. Gener Miao, CMO of JinkoSolar Company Limited; Mr. Pan Li, CFO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; and Mr. Charlie Cao, CFO of JinkoSolar Company Limited. Mr. Li will discuss JinkoSolar’s business operations and company highlights, followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing, and then Mr. Pan Li, who will go through the financials.
We will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows. Please note that today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar’s public findings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward looking statements except as required under the applicable law. It’s now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding.
Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin, and I will translate his comments into English. Please go ahead Mr. Li.
Li Xiande: [Foreign Language] We are pleased to have achieved very impressive operational and financial results in a challenging year by leveraging our advantages in N-type TOPCon technology, globalized operations, and integrated capability. Thanks to strong execution by our team, our module shipment for the full year increased 76.4% year-over-year to 78.5 gigawatts, back to the top position in the industry. Benefiting from our efforts in cost optimization, our profit ability for the full year improved significantly year-over-year, with growth margin at 16% compared to 14.8% in 2022. Net income was $485.8 million, up 4.56 times year-over-year. Adjusted net income was $573.8 million, up 1.93 times year-over-year. Module shipments in the fourth quarter was 26.3 gigawatts, exceeding our guidance.
As module prices fell more than expected in the fourth quarter and nearly 50% of our modules were sold through the Chinese market at lower prices. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 12.5%, a significant decline from 19.3% in the third quarter. [Foreign Language] In China, newly added PV installations reached 216.88 gigawatts in 2023, up 148.1% year-over-year to a historical high. At the same time, excess supply in various links of the industrial chain led to price decline. Tender prices for modules at the year-end decreased over 40% to below RMB1 per watt. Compared to the beginning of the year, export volumes of PV products in 2023 increased significantly year-over-year, whereas export volume fell slightly as a result of a decreasing prices.
In January and February 2024, seasonality combined with extreme competition from certain manufacturers intensified the market panic and irrational prices. We remain cautious and irrational in the face of abnormally low tenders. In addition, while some manufacturers without competitive cost or advanced products reduce or suspend production, we maintained our leading utilization rates in the industry as a result of cost advantage and high order visibility. Into March, as demand picked up and inventory reduced, module prices gradually stabilized and some bidding prices rebounded slightly. In a short to midterm, we expect that the decline in module price will significantly improve the economics of solar energy and we anticipate demand in the global PV markets will continue to increase in 2024.
Meanwhile, rapid iteration of new technologies and the elimination of obsolete production capacity will also accelerate the consolidation of the industry. Market share for the top 10 module manufacturers is expected to increase from 70% in 2023 to over 90% in 2024. We’re confident to consistently enhance our competitiveness through cyclical fluctuations and we expect our market share to further increase in 2024. [Foreign Language] Thanks to our integrated manufacturing strategy and leading position in N-type TOPCon technology in the early stage, by the end of fourth quarter, our N-type capacity exceeded 70 gigawatts, and our cost structure continues to improve. Currently, our mass-produced N-type cell efficiency exceeds 26%, while the integrated cost of N-type is almost on par with P-type.
With the continuous introduction of new cell technologies and optimization of cost-reducing process, our cost structure is expected to become more competitive. [Foreign Language] We attach great importance to intellectual property rights and are fully focused on sustaining our technical leadership based on extensive intellectual property rights. By the end of the fourth quarter, we had been granted 330 TOPCon patents, one of the largest portfolios of granted TOPCon patents in the world. [Foreign Language] With the largest overseas integrated capacity of over 12 gigawatts in the industry and an effective supply chain traceability system, we have become the most reliable module supplier to the US market, which is expected to generate a significant profit in 2024.
Furthermore, our investment in innovative production model is expected to generate returns over time. Phase 1 and 2 of our integrated projects in Shanxi will start production in the first half of 2024 as planned and gradually ramp up in the second half. The full integration of automation can greatly improve labor efficiency and operation turnover efficiency and is expected to bring a significant reduction in operating costs after reaching full production. [Foreign Language] In the mid to long term, the rapid expansion of AI and electrical vehicles may lead to a tight power slide in the world, and the demand for clean power generation is expected to further increase. So far, reduced solar cost has significantly increased the competitiveness of solar in energy sectors.
In the future, solar as a new quality productive force is set to play an increasingly important role in face of energy crisis and energy transformation. We are bullish about PV market growth in the mid to long term and we are confident we will continue to lead the industry with advanced technologies and premium and high-efficiency products. [Foreign Language] Taking into account supply chain and market conditions, we are reducing investments in capacity expansion in 2024. We are focusing on expanding our advanced N-type capacity, including 28 gigawatts of integrated capacity in our Shanxi plant and about 4 gigawatts of N-type cell and module capacity in Vietnam. We continue to focus on improving working capital efficiency and achieving sustainable growth in operating cash flow.
[Foreign Language] Before turning over to Gener, I would like to go over our guidance for the first quarter and the full year of 2024. By the end of 2024, we expect mass-produced N-type cell efficiency to reach 26.5%. We expect our annual production capacity for mono wafers, solar cells and solar modules to reach 120, 110 and 130 gigawatts respectively by the end of 2024 with N-type capacity accounting for over 90% of total capacity. We expect the module shipments to be in the range of 18 to 20 gigawatts for the first quarter of 2024 and 100 gigawatts to 110 gigawatts for the full year 2024 with N-type accounting for nearly 90% of total module shipments. Gener?
Gener Miao: Thank you, Mr. Li. We are pleased to have achieved a historical high in quarterly and annual module shipments, thanks to our excellent global marketing network and the power of our products. Total shipments were 27.9 gigawatts in the fourth quarter, with module shipments accounting for approximately 95%. Annual module shipment increased 76.4% year-over-year to 78.5 gigawatts. And both module shipments in the fourth quarter and the full year 2024 ranked the world number one. We continued to improve product quality and build our customer service network to expand the influence of our brand. By the end of fourth quarter, our accumulated global module shipment exceeded 210 gigawatts, covering more than 190 countries and regions.
In terms of a geographic mix, China and the Asia-Pacific became our major shipment regions in the fourth quarter, accounting for approximately 70%. For the full year 2023, shipment to Asia Pacific and North America grew significantly more than doubling year-over-year. As we continue to expand our footprint in overseas markets and the use of integrated capacity, we move on to invest in North America and emerging markets. Based on our business conditions and market trends, China and Europe will continue to be the major contributor to the shipment in 2024, with North America, emerging markets and Asia Pacific expected to flourish. On the product front, the competitive high-efficiency Tiger NEO accounted for 70% of the shipment in fourth quarter, with average premium of RMB0.10 per watt versus P-type modules.
And the Tiger NEO accounted for approximately 60% of annual global shipment, achieving the goal we set at the beginning of the year and accelerated its market penetration globally. Currently, the power output of Tiger NEO modules is more than 30 watt peak higher than that of the similar P-type module, providing our customers with higher power generation yield. Shipments of our Tiger NEO were expected to account for over 85% in the first quarter 2024 and its product strength to continue to lead the industry. We are always committed to bring greater economic value to our customer with high efficiency, highly reliable product, and sustainable solutions. Recently, we unveiled the first Neo Green panels produced with renewable energy. These panels were produced in factories that were awarded the Zero Carbon Factory certification by TUV Rheinland.
JinkoSolar is also the first company in the industry to be awarded with Zero Carbon Factory certification by TUV or silicon in the manufacturing, wafer cutting, cell manufacturing, and the module manufacturing. We also continue to improve our ESG practices and optimize our traceability system. In the first quarter, we were awarded with the ESG Transparency Award from EUPD Research, which recognized our far-reaching commitment to sustainability and transparency. Recently, bidding for some domestic projects began to activate. EU inventories became depleted. And we have seen additional demand, especially in DG business. This gradually improved the PV economics and the growing demand for transmission to clean energy globally. PV demand in the global market is expected to further increase in 2024 but at a relatively slower pace than in 2023.
In longer term, the requirement of AI for computing power will further increase the demand for electricity and electrical equipment, ensuring strong growth potential for PV plus storage. As a responsible global company, we are always committed to providing clients with reliable and highly efficient product and solution, practicing the values we share with our clients, partners and investors to accelerate to a greener future. With that, I turn the call over to Pan.
Pan Li: Thanks to the solid execution, our operations and management strategies, as well as successful efforts in cost optimization, we delivered excellent financial performance. For the full year, key metrics such as total revenues, gross margins, income from operations, and net income, all significantly increased year-over-year. We also improved working capital efficiency and optimized operating cash flow. By the end of the fourth quarter, we had cash and cash equivalents of $2.75 billion. And our net debt decreased by over 20% year-over-year. In December, we announced the extension of our existing share repurchase program. And by the end of February this year, we had repurchased nearly 1 million ADS in aggregate amount of approximately $28 million.
With our advantages in N-type TOPCon technology, globalized operations, and integrated capacity, we are very confident in our growth prospect and will continue to improve working capital efficiency and achieve sustainable growth in operating cash flow. Let me go into more details now. Total revenue was $4.6 billion, an increase of 3% sequentially and more than 9% year-over-year. Gross margin was 12.5% compared with 19% in the third quarter and 14% in the fourth quarter of ‘22. The decreases were many due to the decrease in average selling prices of solar modules. Total operating expenses were $526 million. The increases were mainly attributed to loss of disposal on PPE and expense in relation to settlement of a dispute with customer. Operating margin was 1.1% as compared with 2% last year.
Excluding the impact from a change in fair value of the notes and long-term investments and share-based compensation expenses, adjusted net income attribute to JinkoSolar Holding Company ordinary shareholders were $65 million compared with $45 million in the fourth quarter last year, up 73% year-over-year. Now I’ll brief you on our ‘23 full-year financial results. Total module shipments were 78.5 gigawatts, up 76% year-over-year. And total revenues up 43% year-over-year. For the full year 2023, gross profit was about $2.7 billion, an increase of 55% year-to-year. Gross margin was 16% compared to 14.8%. The increase was mainly attributed to a decrease in the material cost of solar modules. Total operating expenses were $1.8 billion, up 9% over a year.
The increase was mainly due to an increase in payment loss on PPE, an expense in relation to settlement of dispute with customer and increase in staff cost. Operating margin for the full year of ‘23 was 5% compared to 0.5% last year. Excluding the impact from a change in fair value of notes, long-term investments and share-based compensation expenses, adjusting net income attribute to JinkoSolar Holdings ordinary shareholders was about $574 million, up nearly two times year-over-year. Let’s move into the balance sheet. As mentioned, at the end of the fourth quarter, our cash and cash equivalents were significantly higher at $2.75 billion, up from $1.93 billion at the end of the third quarter, and $1.64 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of ‘22.
AR turnover days were down to 76 days in the fourth quarter from 87 days in the third quarter. Inventory turnover days were down to 57 days from 67 days in the third quarter. The total debt was $4.38 billion at year end compared to $4 billion last year. And net debt was $1.6 billion compared to $2.3 billion last year. This concludes our prepared remarks. We’re now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.
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Q&A Session
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Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH MKM. Please go ahead.
Philip Shen: Hi everyone, thank you for taking my questions. First one is on pricing. Was wondering if you could share with us the Q4 ASP. Sorry if I missed it. And then what do you expect that ASP to be in Q1 and Q2 and as we get through the year? Thanks.
Pan Li: Hey, Gener, would you like to answer the question?
Gener Miao: So I’m traveling, so I didn’t get all of your questions, but I heard it’s about pricing, right? So the pricing — actually the pricing significant drop happens across December to January. So that means if we compare the ASP between Q4 and Q1, definitely there will be a big gap in the course of the market price changes. So detail number wise, I don’t have that with me for — sorry about that.
Philip Shen: Okay, yeah, hey Gener, thanks for that. So can you share what the ASP was in Q4 for modules? And then can you quantify how much lower Q1 might be? Thanks.
Gener Miao: Charlie, can you take that? I don’t have the number with me now.
Charlie Cao: Yeah. Philip, I think the most important thing is we believe it’s kind of the panic sales, the module. Let’s say two quarters, and we don’t believe the price, particularly in China, is sustainable. And we are expecting, as well as the market, expecting the module price has been stabilized and maybe up a little bit. And back to the pricing, depending on different markets, the US is pretty significantly priced premium and Europe is a little bit better than China and different segments, DG versus utility has different price difference. But to answer your question, I think you want to explore is, for sure, if Q1, Q2 versus Q4 last year, we think the ASP is still in the downward trend, but it’s not dramatically, but slightly, and we think it’s reaching to the bottom in the first half of the year, 2024, for the ASP.
Philip Shen: Okay, so do you have the average selling price for all the regions for Q4, right? Can you share that price for Q4?
Charlie Cao: No, we don’t disclose, but you can calculate the [indiscernible] if you take the total revenue with this module shipment. And typically we have 95% of the revenues coming from module business.
Philip Shen: Okay, thank you. So it sounds like the bottom could be Q1 or Q2. And — or do you think the bottom is more Q2 or more Q1, in terms of module pricing?
Charlie Cao: I think different companies have different mix, but I think it’s relatively stable Q2 versus Q1. Maybe a little bit lower, but it’s not significant. And yes, that’s what we are looking at. And the most important thing is we think China’s demand is exceeding the expectations. China demand is very, very good and Europe, the destock has been completed and they are picking up the stock. So we think there’s a kind of the improved outlook from the demand side. Still some oversupply situations. For Jinko, we have more, 90% is N-type and global sales and manufacturing capabilities. And we think we are relatively better than the other peers. But it takes time for the low inflation, say, capacity, Tier 2, Tier 3 companies face out, but it takes time. But we think the most important thing is to focus on our added revenues throughout the relatively challenging year.
Philip Shen: Okay, thanks, Charles. Shifting over to margins, so you’ve given us a little bit of a framework for how to think about pricing trends through the year. How do you expect, like, what do you expect your margins to be for Q1? I know you haven’t given official guidance, but just relative to Q4, maybe you can say a little bit up or down or something, and then as it relates to Q2, like, when do you see a bit of a recovery of the margins? Thanks.
Pan Li: We estimate the Q1, Q2 first half of the year, it’s a little bit lower, slightly lower, which is Q4 last year. It’s not dramatic lower for the Q4, which is Q3 last year. It’s slightly lower throughout the Q1, Q2. But we believe there’s opportunities and for a certain half year, maybe preferably they will — to expand.
Philip Shen: Got it, that’s very helpful. And then finally, I think in your slides, you talked about 2 gigawatts of integrated US capacity. Again, sorry if I missed this, but does that mean you might do wafer cell and module in the US? Can you share if so, like, what the locations are? And then, so I’ll leave it there and I have one follow up on that topic next.
Pan Li: Yeah, the US capacity, we started the construction last year, and it’s getting ready. I think we work quickly in March or April to start the operation. It’s a 100% module, 2 gigawatts, no way for sale. And by the way, we have integrated capacity in South East, Vietnam, Malaysia, the capacity roughly 12 to 14 gigawatts. And in the combinations with the 2 gigawatts, the module capacity in the US, I think we are in a good position. And on top of that, we have separate, independent supply chain from the poly, everything to the module. And we have very good traceability systems and proof record rather than the last year. So we think this year is a — we can — we have more market opportunities and to catch up for the next two or three years for the US market.
