13. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 117
Jim Cramer called out Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) as one of the major enterprise software names that’s been hit hard recently, expressing his own concerns over competition from generative AI. He said:
“Adobe, what a great company. Its stock is down almost 35% from its high set last year […] Adobe has come up with a few AI tools of its own headlined by Adobe Firefly – it’s a Lamborghini, wow! It’s a really impressive technology. But the problem is OpenAI can also do these things too. So is Adobe being hurt or helped by AI? It’s really hard to say. […] I’m not sure I’d stick my neck out for Adobe with its generative AI threats.”
Adobe is investing heavily in generative AI across its Creative Cloud suite, but faces competition from newer AI-native tools. However, its massive install base and enterprise subscriptions give it a solid revenue moat.
Guinness Global Innovators stated the following regarding Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) faced challenges this year, ending as the Fund’s worst-performing stock (-25.5% USD). Investor concerns about Adobe’s AI strategy and underwhelming earnings reports played a key role in performance over the year. Adobe started the year with optimism surrounding its generative AI innovations and the company seemed poised to capitalize on the surging demand for creative and marketing automation tools. Its AI-driven platform, Firefly, launched in March 2023, quickly gained traction, generating over 16 billion creative outputs and setting adoption records. However, despite this strength, Adobe’s stock has underperformed, as earnings reports over the year have appeared softer than initially expected from investors. The market reaction however was not caused by scepticism about Adobe’s AI products and tools, but rather driven by concerns on the ability to monetise these quickly. The creative design market has seen intensifying competition with competitors like OpenAI, Canva and even startups introducing generative AI content tools such as text-to-video tools. Adobe’s strategy has appeared to be focused on prioritising widespread adoption over immediate monetization, echoing its successful strategy with PDF in previous years. While larger enterprises have adopted and appreciate Adobe’s ‘commercially safe’ tools compared to peers, Adobe sees a large opportunity amongst those that were not traditionally users of the Adobe’s tools, whether enterprise employees or non-enterprise customers and have thus chosen to drive proliferation of their tools in these ‘untapped’ consumers and delay monetisation. Whilst some AI tools have missed revenue expectations through the year, the increased proliferation and the increasing costs of creating content should improve Adobe’s prospects of monetisation into FY25. Further, despite these short-term challenges, Adobe has a track record of high-quality attributes and long-term growth prospects. Its extensive distribution network, and loyal customer base provide it with a durable competitive edge. The company’s subscription-based model, which accounts for over 90% of its revenue, ensures stable cash flows and high margins. Finally, its brand equity as the industry standard in creative and document solutions supports ongoing market leadership, allowing us to remain confident in Adobe’s ability to navigate current challenges and deliver sustained value over time.”
