We recently published a list of the 10 Stocks to Buy and Sell Before the Third Quarter 2024 According to Jim Cramer. Since Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) ranks 4th on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Jim Cramer in a latest program discussed the changing consumer trends in the US, wondering whether the consumer is just “fed up” of paying high prices and becoming “frugal.” Cramer said this “frugal thesis” is not “obvious” but he has recognized this latest trend based on some new developments. Cramer named a few consumer companies that are benefitting from the changing consumer behavior because of their discounted price offerings. Cramer rejected the notion that dollar stores are cheap. He said these stores raise prices “aggressively” and calling them dollar stores has become a “misnomer.” The CNBC host said the consumers “want prices lower” and that’s why dollar store companies are getting crushed in the new environment.
Jim Cramer also said the “renting society” is winning the “owning society,” pointing to a new trend where consumers are renting boats instead of buying them to enjoy the experience without spending a fortune.
For this article we watched several latest programs of Jim Cramer aired on CNBC and picked some stocks he’s recommending investors to buy or sell. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 60
Jim Cramer said in latest program that any volatility in Chipotle won’t “deviate” him from his age-old bullish mantra on the stock.
“You know me, I am not going to deviate from my position. Own Chipotle, don’t trade it. For ages it’s been my manta and I am not going back on that.”
Chipotle is one of the stocks Barclays analyst Venu Krishna believes could offset the tech concentration risks.
In April, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) posted strong Q1 results, which showed revenue in the period jumped by 13.9% on a YoY basis, beating estimates by $30 million. Comparable sales in the quarter increased by 7%. For the full year, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) expects its comp sales to grow in the mid to high-single digit range. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) has been steadily increasing its footprint over the past several years. Back in 2007, the company had just 704 stores. This figure now stands at 3437. One of the biggest signs of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s (NYSE:CMG) strengths is its rising margins, even when the restaurant industry is reeling from high labor costs and squeezing margins. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s (NYSE:CMG) current net margin of 12.45% is the highest it has been in the past decade.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) trades at 47X 2025 EPS estimate of $66.92 set by Wall Street analysts. This P/E is much higher than the industry of 16. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) is expected to see revenue growth of just 13-15% per year over the next 3 years, while its EPS growth is expected to come in between 3% to 20%. Analysts expect the American consumer to remain prudent in spending amid higher for longer interest rate scenario and dwindling savings. Therefore, for investors looking for high-growth stock appreciation names, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) might not be the ideal choice.
Average analyst estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) is $3244.77, which presents just 3% upside potential from the current levels. That means the Wall Street believes the stock has reached its potential and based on current catalysts and growth trajectory it does not have any room to grow significantly.
Rowan Street Capital stated the following regarding Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“The best investment ideas are simple. We have previously written about Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG). It turned out that this was our best investment idea since starting the fund. The stock is up 10x since we first invested at the end of 2017 (~47% annualized). Sounds absolutely incredible, except that your managers sold CMG back in 2018 (thinking that the stock had gotten ahead of itself), and proudly booked an 85% profit in 6 months, patting ourselves in the back. Interestingly, when we wrote about this in our 2019 letter, describing our big mistake to sell, the stock still went up +270% since that letter, delivering an impressive 30% annual return. This is an incredibly important point! You do not get many Chipotles in your investing career. Companies like these are super rare and the opportunity to buy them at an attractive price (which we got in 2017) is even rarer. Booking a quick profit, paying the capital gains tax and thinking that you will find another CMG to invest your proceeds into is usually delusional.
Along with our personal investment case of CMG, let us compare that to the experience that Bill Ackman had with the same investment. He is a famous hedge fund manager that we greatly admire, who has achieved an incredible track record in the past 20 years running Pershing Square. Bill Ackman has owned the restaurant stock since the third quarter of 2016 at an initial cost basis of about $411 per share (our cost basis was $289). Originally, Mr. Ackman bought 2.88 million shares. He was wise to hold on to CMG stock and it still is the top position in his fund (18% weight). But, if you follow his 13F filings, which are the public filings disclosing large investment manager’s holdings of publicly traded securities, he kept trimming his position as the stock went up. We calculated that if he just sat on his original 2.88 million shares and didn’t sell a share, his position would be worth $8.8 billion today. This would represent ~50% of his entire firms’ assets under management (AUM). But he only has $1.8 billion invested in CMG as of Q1 2024. As Charlie Munger said: ““The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) ranks 4th on Insider Monkey’s list titled 10 Stocks to Buy and Sell Before the Third Quarter 2024 According to Jim Cramer. While we acknowledge the potential of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
