In this piece, we will take a look at the top ten long software stock positions among institutional investors according to Jefferies.
After the post-pandemic rush and the subsequent inflation and glut-driven crash experienced by technology stocks, the sector is now fully bathing in the tailwinds and headwinds generated by artificial intelligence. Yet, unlike the pandemic, inflation, and interest rate-driven effects, AI has grown the addressable market for technology companies and shaken up several of them as well.
Within technology, one sector that has been shaken by AI is the software industry. Before AI, software firms were content with generating stable subscription-driven recurring revenue, but with AI, investors are not only focused on their ability to deliver AI products and monetize them but also on the fact that the firms themselves might be made redundant because of the new technology.
Nowhere else is the latter effect clearer than on software as a service (SaaS) stocks. These stocks offer software products on a subscription basis, and their narrative is based on their ability to deliver technologically complex products that businesses are unwilling to develop because of costs. The impact that AI has made on the SaaS sector is driven by the opinion that as AI enables users to easily create their software, several SaaS companies might not be needed in the business world.
To understand how AI has impacted software stocks, consider data from hedge fund Coatue Management. It shows that booming AI interest has led to software stocks taking the back seat as semiconductor stocks bask in investor attention. During the SaaS peak of 2022, the difference between the returns offered by a SaaS stock index and the semiconductor index were at their highest for the past decade. But, as of June 2024, the difference between the semi and the SaaS index is at the highest for the past decade in a 180-degree paradigm shift driven by AI.
These returns have also been driven by the beefy margins delivered by the semiconductor firms. Margins are a key valuation driver of SaaS stocks, and one popular valuation tool among investors is the Rule of 40. This rule sums up a SaaS stock’s revenue growth rate and profit or operating margin and checks whether the new value is greater than 40. As a result, margins play a key role in SaaS valuation, as a 40% or higher margin means that the firm can get away with little to no growth.
Why is 40% important? Well, according to Coatue, as of June 2024, Wall Street’s top AI GPU stock pick and the stock that ranked 6th in our list of the 10 Most Profitable Stocks of the Last 10 Years had operating margins of 65% and 49%, respectively. On the flip side, the largest software company in the world known for its Windows operating system had a margin of 44%. For chip stocks, new products drive margins since they can charge a premium through high prices. Whether these margins are sustained is another matter, and it was also part of the reason that the GPU firms’ shares fell by 6% as its full-year margin gross guidance of mid-70 % fell short of analyst expectations of 76.4%.
Coming back to software stocks, another metric used in their valuation is the price-to-sales ratio since several software and SaaS firms are unprofitable. In the era of AI, the SaaS index quoted by Coatue is trading at 5.5x price to forward sales. This is well below the long-term median of 7.2x and just a quarter of the 2021 peak of roughly 22x. This valuation compression is accompanied by lower revenue growth estimates. As mentioned above, growth is a fundamental tenet of SaaS and software valuation, and as of June 2024, just one percent of software companies had a next twelve-month revenue growth rate greater than 30%. At the peak of the software boom, 30% of firms faced similar expectations. Digging deeper, several factors are driving this trend.
AI is affecting SaaS stocks by making them shift to a consumption-driven model that charges customers for the services used instead of seat-based packages that simply sell capacity. Additionally, software stocks are also reckoning with the fact that their customers might end up using AI to cost-effectively develop their software instead of relying on expensive third-party options. As Jensen Huang shared in a 2021 interview with Time Magazine, well before his firm’s stock posted 1,100% in share price gains:
“AI is a watershed moment for the world. Humans’ fundamental technology is intelligence. We’re in the process of automating intelligence so that we can augment ours. The thing that’s really cool is that AI is software that writes itself, and it writes software that no humans can. It’s incredibly complex. And we can automate intelligence to operate at the speed of light, and because of computers, we can automate intelligence and scale it out globally instantaneously. Every single one of the large industries will be revolutionized because of it. When you talk about the smartphone, it completely revolutionized the phone industry. We’re about to see the same thing happen to agriculture, to food production, to health care, to manufacturing, to logistics, to customer care, to transportation. These industries that I just mentioned are so complex that no humans could write the software to improve it. But finally we have this piece of this new technology called artificial intelligence that can write that complex software so that we can automate it. The whole goal of writing software is to automate something. We’re in this new world where, over the next 10 years, we’re going to see the automation of automation.”
So, as the software industry undergoes a once-in-a-generation shift, it’s important to see how institutional investors are positioning their trades. Its latest survey is historic as it shows that just 19% of institutional investors are overweight in software stocks, the lowest reading recorded since the survey started. The figure sat at 51% in January and dropped to 28% in July. Yet, even though investors are less overweight, they’ve also reduced their short exposure as they’ve shorted 54 software stocks as of October 11th – down from 73 in July. So, let’s take a look at the stocks that they persist to be long in.
A data analyst in a lab monitoring a cloud-based software system to detect cardiac disease.
Our Methodology
To make our list of Jefferies’ top overcrowded software long positions, we ranked the top ten crowded long positions from the latest Trading Positioning Survey by their shares short as a percentage of outstanding shares.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
10. Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 44
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 4.36%
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a software company that enables customers to analyze and generate insights from their data. It is one of the most well-known government contractors for intelligence-driven data analysis, and the firm also enables customers to consolidate their data under a single software roof and virtually deploy software. Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) stands out from most other software companies through the fact that it works directly with its customers to deploy software. This means that businesses interested in customized products are drawn to the company. These strengths are also manifesting in Palantir Technologies Inc.’s (NYSE:PLTR) income statement. Its US commercial revenue grew by 70% in the second quarter, and the software company also added 96 contracts worth more than $1 million each and 27 contracts worth more than $10 million each. Such deals are the gold standard in the software industry as they help beef up margins and ensure sizeable annual recurring revenue.
Scout Investments mentioned Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) in its Q1 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“The top contributor to return for the quarter was Palantir Technologies. Sentiment improved on Palantir after it reported stronger than expected commercial customer revenue and free cash flow. U.S. commercial growth was especially encouraging, as U.S. commercial revenue was up by a large percentage year over year for the fourth quarter and U.S. commercial customer count grew nearly as much. We expect Palantir to become one of the premier artificial intelligence (AI) software providers, built on its Foundry and AIP platforms.”
9. CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 69
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 4.12%
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a cybersecurity software products provider that made headlines earlier this year due to a faulty software update that caused one of the biggest software outages in history. The outage affected an unbelievable 8.5 million computers worldwide, and it is now shaping CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD)’s narrative as well. While the shares are up by 42% since the post-outage bottom, compared to the pre-outage peak, they are still down 20.8%. Investors are waiting to see whether the reputational impacts from the outage might lead businesses to not renew their contracts with CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD)’s Falcon system. As for the firm, it is still targeting $10 billion in annual recurring revenue by its fiscal year 2031 and a midpoint free cash flow margin of 36%. Consequently, investors will be combing CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD)’s upcoming earnings with a fine-toothed comb to see if customer sentiment has weakened to make meeting these guidelines difficult.
Baron Funds mentioned CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is a cloud-architected SaaS cybersecurity vendor offering endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyberattack response services. Shares continued their strong performance from the first quarter and were again a top contributor, rising 19.5% in the second quarter on better execution than peers in the broader security space. The company reported strong quarterly results with 33% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by customers consolidating their cybersecurity spend on CrowdStrike with free cash flow margins reaching 35%. With accelerating market share gains in its core endpoint detection and response offering, emerging products including Cloud, Identity, and SIEM reaching material scale, and newer products in data protection and AI ramping quickly, net new annual recurring revenue and total revenue look to sustain a long duration of growth. With its leading competitive positioning in cybersecurity, the growing threat landscape (which is also driven by the advancements in AI, making hackers more dangerous), its unique lightweight, single-agent, architecture, and its platform approach, we retain conviction in CrowdStrike, which is emerging as the security platform to beat in terms of scale, profitability, and free cash flow conversion.”
8. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 66
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 2.95%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) is a pure-play cybersecurity company that offers a host of products such as malware protection, cloud network and platform security, and firewalls. It has been one of the most interesting software stocks in 2024 courtesy of a massive 28% share price drop in February. This was its worst fall in history, and it came on the back of a full-year billings cut by the firm. Billings growth is a key metric of software stock evaluation since it relates to growth, and Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) reduced its midpoint billings and revenue guidance to $10.15 billion and $7.975 billion, respectively. Previously, the two respective figures were $10.75 billion and $8.175 billion. When compared to the levels immediately before the crash, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW)’s shares have gained a meager 3.7% so far. On a longer-term basis, the firm has been working to expand its presence in the important edge security industry that regulates employees using personal devices to access business networks. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW)’s next-generation security business dominated by its Cortex platform has been a hot performer in 2024 with annual recurring revenue growing by 42.8% in its fiscal fourth quarter.
Parnassus Investments mentioned Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Palo Alto Networks has been a profitable position for the portfolio. Given its elevated valuation, we decided to sell it to fund the purchase of Workday, where we see greater opportunity and a clearer story of margin expansion potential.”
7. Datadog, Inc. (NASDAQ:DDOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 79
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 2.39%
Datadog, Inc. (NASDAQ:DDOG) provides software that enables businesses to monitor and observe their cloud infrastructure via event logging, performance management, and other operations. This means that the firm’s fate is tied to the health of the cloud industry, which in turn depends on corporate financial flexibility that is typically found in a low interest rate environment. As a result, it’s unsurprising that Datadog, Inc. (NASDAQ:DDOG)’s shares are up by a modest 8.29% year to date since the cloud sector has struggled to maintain momentum as corporate budgets remain stressed. It also means that the firm will benefit once cloud spending picks up since its narrative depends on Datadog, Inc. (NASDAQ:DDOG)’s competitive strengths in the monitoring and observability segment of the cloud industry. It does enjoy several advantages on this front though, courtesy of its portfolio of 23 products and the ability to enable customers to monitor more than 1,000 microservices.
Datadog, Inc. (NASDAQ:DDOG) is also targeting observability for LLMs and AI systems. Here’s what management shared during the Q2 2024 earnings call:
“In the next-gen AI space, we announced the general availability of LLM Observability, which allows application developers and machine learning engineers to efficiently monitor, troubleshoot and secure LLM applications.
With LLM Observability, companies can accelerate the development of AI applications into production environments and reliably operate and scale them. We also expanded Bits AI with new capabilities. As a reminder, Bits AI is a Datadog built-in AI copilot. In addition to being able to summarize incidents and answer questions, we previewed at DASH the ability for Bits AI to operate as an agent and perform autonomous investigations. With this capability, Bits AI proactively surfaces key information and performs complex tasks such as investigating alerts and coordinating incident response. Taking a step back and looking at our customer base, we continue to see a lot of excitement around AI technology. More customers are telling us that they are levering up on AI and ramping up experimentation with the goal of delivering additional business value with AI, and we can see them doing this.
Today about 2,500 customers use one or more of our AI integrations to get visibility into their increasing use of AI. We also continue to grow our business with AI-native customers, which increased to over 4% of our ARR in June. We see this as a sign of the continuing expansion of this ecosystem and of the value of using Datadog to monitor the production environment. I will note that over time, we think these metrics will become less relevant as AI usage and production broadens beyond this group of customers.”
6. ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 97
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.88%
ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) is one of the biggest SaaS companies in the world. The firm provides products that enable users to automate their business processes and manage human resource operations, IT operations, and others. The firm has raked in $1.1 billion in trailing twelve-month net income and its shares are up 33.5% year to date. Since it’s a SaaS stock, ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW)’s narrative depends on its ability to sustain revenue levels, maintain profitability, grow its customer base, and increase the portion of larger deals within the overall mix. ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) appears to be executing well on these fronts. During the second quarter, the firm grew customers with annual recurring revenue greater than $20 million by 40% and its committed remaining performance obligations by 31% to a whopping $18.6 billion. The latter is a particularly important metric since it measures the money that ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) is nearly guaranteed to receive in the future. This helps evaluate the firm’s future cash flows.
Polen Capital mentioned ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) in its Q1 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“We trimmed our positions in Adobe and ServiceNow earlier in the quarter as we believe positive AI narratives had driven the valuations of both companies higher than we felt was comfortable relative to their weighting in the Portfolio. We believe both companies will likely have incremental revenue and profits from generative AI products they incorporate into their offerings, such as Firefly for Adobe and Now Assist for ServiceNow. However, we do not expect them to be substantial revenue contributors in the near term. As such, we felt it was prudent to reduce the weightings and reallocate to other positions at better valuations.”
5. Workday Inc. (NYSE:WDAY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 86
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.75%
Workday Inc. (NYSE:WDAY) is a human operations and financial management software as a service provider. With the broader business spending and operating environment still struggling from the Federal Reserve’s 24-year high interest rate cycle and inflationary trends, the firm has felt the pinch as its shares are down 9.14% year to date. Workday Inc. (NYSE:WDAY) prospers when businesses are hiring and when firms have ample money in their budget to invest in process software, and it has struggled in today’s high inflation era. During the firm’s fiscal years 2021 to 2023, it struggled to keep costs under control and ended up posting operating losses in each of the years. This was even though for each year, Workday Inc. (NYSE:WDAY) also grew revenue by roughly $1 billion. The slow labor market has also injected considerable volatility into its shares. For instance, the stock fell by 15% in May after Workday Inc.’s (NYSE:WDAY) fiscal first quarter SEC filing warned that moderating business spending could create future headwinds. Yet, the shares jumped by 12.5% in August after the Q2 report saw Workday Inc. (NYSE:WDAY) beat analyst EPS and revenue estimates of $1.65 and $2.071 billion by posting $2.085 billion revenue and $1.75 in EPS and increase its 2027 margin guidance by five percentage points to 30%.
Parnassus Investments mentioned Workday Inc. (NYSE:WDAY) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Workday, Inc. (NASDAQ:WDAY), a provider of human capital and financial management software, warned of slower growth in subscription revenue even as first-quarter revenue and earnings topped expectations. We added to our position as it fell to a valuation that we believe does not reflect its revenue growth and increasing operating margins.”
4. Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 117
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.72%
Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM), as its ticker might suggest, is a customer relationship management software provider. It is one of the largest players in its industry and commanded 21.7% of the market in 2023. Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)’s scale is evident by the fact that it offers customers a whopping 8 trillion data points to run their campaigns. This is a key advantage in today’s AI driven industry, as data is the oil for artificial intelligence training. However, despite its considerable strengths, Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)’s shares are down 12.6% year to date. This is driven by a sizeable 19.7% drop in May after the firm’s fiscal first-quarter earnings disappointed on the growth front of SaaS stock valuation. Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)’s revenue grew by 11% to $9.13 billion in the quarter but analysts had penciled in $9.17 billion. Its Q2 higher-end guidance of $9.25 billion also missed broader consensus estimates of $9.37 billion. Another worrying factor for investors is Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)’s inability to increase the portion of large deals in its deal portfolio.
Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)’s management shared details about its plans to increase deal value during the Q1 2025 earnings call:
“Data Cloud gives every company a single source of truth and you can securely power AI insights and actions across the entire Customer 360.
Now let me tell you why I’m excited about Data Cloud and why it’s transforming our customers and how it’s preparing them for this next generation of artificial intelligence. Data Cloud was included in 25% of our $1 million plus deals in the quarter. We added more than 1,000 data cloud customers for the second quarter in a row. 8 trillion records were ingested in the Data Cloud in the quarter, up 42% year-over-year and we processed 2 quadrillion records, that’s a 217% increase compared to last year. Over 1 trillion activations drove customer engagement, which is a 33% increase year-over-year. This incredible growth of data in our system and the level of transactions that we’re able to deliver, not just in the core system but especially in data cloud is preparing our customers for this next generation of AI.”
3. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 107
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.48%
Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) is one of the biggest productivity software providers in the world. It offers a wide variety of products such as those used in image editing, document management, and marketing. The age of AI has been great for Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), as AI expands the services that it can offer to customers. However, the stock has struggled in 2024 with the shares down by 14%. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)’s 2024 stock performance is bifurcated into two halves, and the poor performance has been driven by the first half. This saw the shares tumble by 30% between February and May as investors remained unconvinced of Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)’s ability to leverage AI to retain or grow its market share. These two factors are key to its hypothesis which depends on the firm’s ability to earn through subscription revenues. However, the second half of Adobe Inc.’s (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock performance has been kind to investors as the shares are up by 13.4%. Growth is still a key tenet of the hypothesis, with the stock tumbling by 9% in September after Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)’s Q4 midpoint revenue guidance of $5.25 billion missed analyst estimates of $5.61 billion.
Polen Capital mentioned Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“With Adobe, in some ways, we see it as a microcosm of the market’s “shoot first, ask questions later” approach to categorizing AI winners and losers. In the early part of last year, Adobe came under pressure with a perception that generative AI (GenAI) would represent a material headwind to their suite of creative offerings. In short order, the company introduced its GenAI offering, Firefly, which shifted the narrative to Adobe as a beneficiary with a real opportunity to monetize GenAI in the near term. Earlier this year, that narrative was again challenged as the company reported a slight slowdown in revenue growth. Results in the most recent quarter were robust as the company raised its full-year forecast across a number of key metrics and showcased better-than-expected results.”
2. Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 93
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 0.61%
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) is one of the largest enterprise resource management software products providers in the world. The firm enables businesses to manage their manufacturing, supply chains, and other operations. Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) has also used its expertise in providing computing products to businesses to create a key role for itself in the artificial intelligence infrastructure industry. It is one of the largest operators of AI GPU clusters in the world, which enables Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) to position itself to serve the hardware needs of firms needing GPUs to train their AI models. Its Opera Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) business aims to allow AI users to access as many as 131,072 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs – creating a sizeable chance that Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) ends up becoming the backbone of the global AI industry since Blackwells are among the most hotly demanded products in the world right now.
Janus Henderson mentioned Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Enterprise software company Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) was a top contributor to relative performance. The company reported revenue and bottom line metrics that were in line to slightly below consensus; however, it also reported record bookings for new business. This accelerating revenue growth outlook is being driven by AI cloud infrastructure deals and boosted sentiment in the stock.”
1. SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 31
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 0.14%
SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) is a key player in the global enterprise resource computing industry. Gartner believes that the firm holds 24% of the global enterprise resource planning industry. This provides SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) with a wide moat, as firms typically do not change their ERP software unless forced to do so because of the high costs and high risks of business disruption involved. Consequently, at a time when non-AI cloud-driven stocks have struggled in a sluggish business environment, the software company has held its own. SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)’s shares are up 54.7% year to date as consistent performance on the earnings front has kept investors bullish. Its second-quarter earnings in July set the shares soaring by 7% after its operating profit jumped 33% annually to touch €1.94 billion and beat analyst estimates of €1.81 billion. A 33% growth is nothing short of incredible in today’s industry where some of the biggest software firms have struggled. To top it up, October was a historic month for SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) as it became the most valuable company in Europe after chip manufacturing equipment provider ASML slipped by a whopping 19.9% following a weaker-than-expected sales outlook. SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)’s third-quarter results saw it grow revenue by 9% to €8.47 billion. Its backlog jumped by 29% to €15.4 billion, with revenue also surpassing analyst estimates of €8.45 billion.
During the Q2 2024 earnings call, SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)’s management commented on why it’s seemingly immune to the headwinds that the broader industry is suffering from:
“I mean, Mark, indeed, I mean, we have seen a fantastic performance in half year 1, and now entering half year 2, we see very healthy pipeline. And pipeline means sales pipeline but also I see a very strong innovation pipeline.
Now when you sit together with our product owners and see what we are delivering on GenAI use cases and the customers who are sharing their feedback early on, it’s pretty exciting. I mean they see a ton of value, and you have seen now in Q2 already the first impact of Business AI on our numbers.
And then second, what I also see clearly working now is the best of suite. I mean 4 years back, we were rightfully criticized for having a bunch of best-of-breed solutions. But when you want to have a high-quality AI, when you want to steer your business end to end, when you want to connect your commerce and your omnichannel with supply chain and when you want to connect your procurement with the warehousing, I mean, that all comes together on BTP.
And I would say we are also just at the beginning. I mean please don’t forget, when customers are using their ECC solution, so their on-premise monolithic ERP solution today, that doesn’t mean that they use all the modules in the past. And now with our land-and-expand strategy, we have really, I mean, a motion that customers are really landing. And then they get that they have to connect the different parts of their company and the different parts of the supply chain. And that’s why we also stay confident for the second half of the year.”
SAP is a software stock institutional investors are piling into according to Jefferies. While we acknowledge the potential of SAP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SAP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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