In this piece, we will look at the top ten long semiconductor stock positions among institutional investors according to Jefferies.
Semiconductor stocks are among the most dynamic ones that you’ll find on Wall Street. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, chip stocks have seen it all. Nowhere is it clearer than in the performance of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange’s well-known index of semiconductor stocks, which is one of the most widely used benchmarks for the sector’s performance.
The index opened 2020 at 1825.59 points and by February 18th, or two days before the coronavirus stock market crash started, the semiconductor stock index had gained 3.5% to close at 1891.05. Then, as markets began to crash, between the 18th of February and the bottom on March 26th, the index had bled one-third of its value or 31% to close at 1298.54 points. During the same period, the flagship S&P index had also lost 31%, so both indexes mirrored each other, which was unsurprising as semiconductor stocks are in no way defensive stocks that hedge their losses during economic turmoil.
Following the drop, both the S&P and the semiconductor stock index changed direction. As interest rates dropped to historic lows, money flew into the stock market and semiconductor stocks in particular soared as the demand for personal computing products boomed because of work-at-home mandates and lockdowns. Between the March 2020 bottom and January 10th, 2022, the flagship S&P and the semiconductor index gained 102% and 200% respectively. As you can see, the soaring demand meant that chip stocks delivered 2x the returns of the benchmark index.
After a crash and a rise, these two paradigm shifts took place in less than two years. To complete the cycle, semiconductor stocks were in for another crash – and then another rise. 2022 was the year of interest rate hikes as the Federal Reserve unleashed monetary policy tightening via multiple 75 basis point hikes to try to tamp down inflation. For chip stocks, this meant that consumer budgets were suddenly squeezed and data center spending before the AI era ground to a halt. This was evident in the annual filing of the world’s largest data center CPU company, which now tops our list of the 10 Worst Performing NASDAQ Stocks in 2024.
In its filing, the firm–whose Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue dropped by 15% to sit at $19.1 billion and led to a whopping 73% annual operating income drop–shared “DCAI server volume decreased, led by enterprise customers, and due to customers tempering purchases to reduce existing inventories in a softening data center market.”
So, as firms struggled with a “softening data center market” and struggling consumer behavior, the semiconductor stock index dropped by 44% between January 10th, 2022, and the bottom on October 10th, 2022. In short, this meant that the index trimmed down its returns to 66% from the March 2020 bottom.
But as fate would have it–in less than two months from the October bottom–OpenAI would make it ChatGPT chatbot publicly available. ChatGPT was released in late November 2022, and from the start of 2023 to today, the semiconductor stock index has gained 102% and far surpassed its peak before the interest rate hiking cycle. This shows how dynamic the semiconductor industry is, and since the coronavirus bottom, it has gained a whopping 301%.
However, not all semiconductor stocks are equal. As we covered in detail as part of Goldman Sachs’ Best Phase 2 AI Stocks: Top 24 High Conviction AI Stocks, the paradigm around AI stocks and AI semiconductor stocks appears to be shifting. So far since the launch of ChatGPT, only one chip stock has led the semiconductor space in terms of share price gains. This is the only Phase 1 stock in Goldman’s list, and since the launch of ChatGPT, post-split, the stock is up by 717%. However, since its peak in June, the shares have gained just 1.78%, after having dipped by 27% between June 18th and the first week of August. Wall Street is now in waiting mode, as investors are eager for the upcoming earnings to see how good margins are and whether firms that are buying GPUs are able to generate profits from their investments.
Ahead of the third quarter earnings season, Jefferies released its Trading Positioning Survey in October. This analyzed institutional investor holdings in semiconductor stocks ahead of the earnings season. The results were rather striking. Jefferies’ July survey revealed that 60% were overweight on semiconductor stocks, but this percentage dropped by 18 points to 42% in October. The latest survey analyzed investor positions between September 30th and October 11th, and it also revealed that the investors who were underweight on semiconductor stocks had grown by 5 percentage points to 16% from July’s readings.
So, as AI semiconductor investing enters Phase 2 as per Goldman Sachs and Jefferies shared interesting insights, we decided to see which semiconductor stocks institutional investors are long on.
A close-up of a laptop monitor with stock market prices scrolling up and down.
Our Methodology
To make our list of Jefferies’ top overcrowded semiconductor long positions, we ranked the top ten crowded long positions from the latest Trading Positioning Survey by their shares short as a percentage of outstanding shares.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
10. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 108
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 2.76%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is a semiconductor designer that sells CPUs and GPUs. Its products are used in a variety of applications, such as data centers, AI computers, personal computers, and gaming consoles. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is the only company that simultaneously competes with Intel in the CPU market and NVIDIA in the GPU and AI accelerator market. Consequently, it enjoys the benefit of having depth in its chip portfolio by offering a lower-priced option to both its competitors’ customers. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)’s shares have been one of the best performing on the market recently as they are up by 854% since mid-2018. This has been on the back of its ability to secure market share from Intel, and the firm could see additional tailwinds if AI demand sticks and businesses turn towards diversifying their chips away from NVIDIA.
Baron Funds mentioned Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is a global fabless semiconductor company focusing on high performance computing technology, software, and products including CPUs, 9 GPUs, FPGAs, 10 and others. Shares of AMD remain volatile, and after a strong run earlier in the year, the stock fell during the quarter as investors continue to wrestle with AMD’s competitive positioning in the AI compute market relative to NVIDIA, who continues to strengthen its full-system solution offerings at a rapid pace. AMD also updated its MI300 GPU chip revenue expectations for the full year to “greater than $4 billion” vs. prior $3.5 billion, which disappointed the market a bit relative to high expectations. Over the long-term, we believe AMD, with its unique chiplet-based architecture and open-source software ecosystem, will play a meaningful role in the rapidly growing AI compute market, where customers don’t want to be locked into a single vendor and AMD offers a compelling total-cost-of-ownership proposition, especially in inferencing workloads. Simultaneously, we believe AMD will continue to take share from Intel within traditional data center CPUs, which, while now a slower growth market, is likely to see a near-term refresh as data centers look for ways to improve energy efficiency and optimize existing footprints.”
9. QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 100
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 2.30%
QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. It has a diversified portfolio of semiconductor products that serve the needs of the smartphone, IoT, and automotive industries. Additionally, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) also enjoys somewhat of a diversified business model as it also earns licensing revenue from the chips that it has already sold. However, as of the nine months ending in June 2024, 84% of QUALCOMM Incorporated’s (NASDAQ:QCOM) revenue came from equipment sales which means that the firm is at the mercy of the global consumer technology industry and consumer spending. Additionally, within the firm’s $24.5 billion in equipment and services revenue, $18.8 billion is from handset sales. This makes it unsurprising that QUALCOMM Incorporated’s (NASDAQ:QCOM) shares are up by a modest 23.50% year to date despite the tailwinds enjoyed by semiconductor stocks in the AI era. A sustained recovery in the global smartphone industry could see the firm experience more tailwinds.
Aristotle Capital Management mentioned QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Qualcomm, a leading wireless communications technology company, was the largest contributor for the quarter. After a period of weaker global demand for smartphones (driven by a slowdown in China) and elevated channel inventory, demand from Chinese handset manufacturers accelerated 40% year‐over‐year. More importantly, in our opinion, Qualcomm continues to execute on a previously identified catalyst of shifting its business mix beyond smartphones. The company announced increased progress for its automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions. Within auto, the increase in vehicle content has resulted in 35% year‐over‐year revenue growth, with a design win pipeline of ~$45 billion, keeping the company on track to achieving ~$4 billion in auto‐related revenues by 2026. In recent years, despite persistent threats of insourcing from large clients (most notably Apple), Qualcomm has been able to retain its high market share in handsets while simultaneously expanding in non‐smartphone devices. We believe this progress is a testament to Qualcomm’s history of high (and productive) R&D spending, resulting in technological superiority. We believe Qualcomm’s technologies will continue to benefit as the world stays on a path toward a proliferation of connectivity between varying devices and as AI applications extend from the cloud to on‐device.”
8. Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 50
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 2.11%
Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN) is one of the oldest semiconductor companies in the world. Unlike Intel, which is another original Silicon Valley firm, it makes and sells power and signal management products among others. Most of Texas Instruments Incorporated’s (NASDAQ:TXN) revenue comes from selling analog chips which are used to convert real-world measurements and inputs such as temperature into digital outputs that computers can use. These chips are predominantly used in the smartphone and sensing industries, both of which are dependent on global economic activity. Consequently, Texas Instruments Incorporated’s (NASDAQ:TXN) shares are up by a modest 14.60% year to date and the firm has also been targeted by activist investor Elliot Management. Elliot announced a $2.5 billion stake in the firm in May, and Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN) can benefit from a global consumer electronics recovery, subsidies through the CHIPS Act, and low-cost operations in China.
The London Company mentioned Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN) – TXN rallied in 2Q despite declining revenue in its latest update. TXN is beginning to see some encouraging signs of destocking nearing an end and some sub segments of the market are experiencing improving demand. TXN continued to spend on capex and should begin to see positive benefits to cash flow next year from the CHIPS Act.”
7. Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 74
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 2%
Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) is a semiconductor firm that caters to the needs of the data center industry. This makes it unsurprising that not only are its shares up 43.29% year to date but institutional investors have also taken a long position. Some of Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)’s products include signal processors, storage controllers, network adapters, and switches. These provide it with broad exposure to the data center industry. This exposure has transformed Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)’s income statement in just a year as data center spending grows because of AI. How so? During the six months ending in July 2023, data center sales accounted for 34% of Marvell Technology, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MRVL) $2.6 billion net revenue. Now, as of six months ending on August 3rd, 2024, the data center makes up 70% of the firm’s business through its $1.7 billion net revenue which marks a 90% annual growth. In fact, the data center is now crucial for Marvell Technology, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MRVL) growth, as revenue from its enterprise networking, carrier infrastructure, consumer, and industrial businesses has dropped annually.
During the Q2 2025 earnings call, Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)’s management shared details for custom chips that could be all the buzz in the AI industry soon:
“Our AI custom silicon programs are progressing very well, with our first two chips now ramping into volume production.
Development for new custom programs we have already won, including projects with a new Tier 1 AI customer we announced earlier this year, are also tracking well to key milestones. Looking ahead to the third quarter of fiscal 2025 for our data center end market, we are forecasting revenue growth to accelerate into the high teens sequentially on a percentage basis. We expect the largest contributor to this growth will be our AI custom silicon programs as they begin to ramp meaningfully in the third quarter, further augmented by ongoing growth from our optics portfolio.”
6. Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 77
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.97%
Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) is a semiconductor manufacturing equipment firm whose products are used in chip manufacturing and production optimization. This makes the firm one of the most important in the world since increased AI spending and geopolitical tensions have placed media, investors, and government spotlight sharply on firms that make and sell chipmaking equipment. That said, Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) has felt the pinch and its China revenue dropped to 32% of total fiscal Q3 sales from the previous quarter’s 43%. This also led to muted investor reaction to the overall earnings release as Applied Materials, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMAT) shares dipped by 2.8% in after-hours although its quarterly revenue of $6.78 billion beat analyst estimates of $6.67. Part of the bearishness stems from the weak status of the memory industry, but over the long term, the introduction of new manufacturing technologies and techniques such as 18A, 2 nanometers, gate all around (GAA) position Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) well to benefit from the industry’s upcycles.
Parnassus Investments mentioned Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Applied Materials is the world’s largest supplier of wafer fabrication technologies used in semiconductor manufacturing. The company reported solid earnings for the quarter, and investors believe Applied Materials should continue to benefit from accelerated industry spend due to AI and share gains.”
5. KLA Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024:
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.82%
KLA Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC) is a California-based semiconductor manufacturing equipment provider. Its products enable chip manufacturers to etch, inspect, drill, and conduct other chip and printed circuit board manufacturing operations. Since KLA Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC) serves the needs of the broader chip manufacturing industry instead of AI-specific needs such as packaging, the shares have been stressed in 2024. The stock is up by a modest 19.6% year to date and it sank by a whopping 19% in October. This was because ASML, the only manufacturer of high-end chip fabrication machines, provided a muted guidance for 2025 which made investors worry that chip manufacturers might not be as aggressive with their capital expenditure as previously expected. Consequently, any improvement in the spending outlook could introduce tailwinds while further US sanctions against China might prove troublesome.
Aristotle Atlantic Partners mentioned KLA Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“KLA Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC) contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter as the company reported a strong March quarter. The results were driven by better-than-expected performance in patterning and services segments. The company also provided positive commentary on customer orders and increased visibility on growing sequential revenue through the rest of 2024. Commentary surrounding wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending for 2024 shows improving demand, with 2024 at least flat versus 2023 and growing customer spend driven by strong foundry/logic and high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand from accelerating AI-compute infrastructure spend.”
4. ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 38
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.39%
ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM) is a British chip design and intellectual property company that is one of the most consequential in the semiconductor industry right now. Its IP and designs are used in the majority of smartphone processors worldwide. Additionally, advances in chip manufacturing which have enabled TSMC to make chips with features as small as 3 nanometers have opened a new market for ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM). This is the data center industry, with big ticket names like Amazon and Meta relying on the firm’s designs to build and use custom data center processors. ARM Holdings plc’s (NASDAQ:ARM) status in the chip industry is clear by the fact that NVIDIA–the world’s eminent AI GPU company–was fully intent on acquiring the company before prevented by regulators. Consequently, it enjoys a wide moat but can see trouble in the future from open-source design rules such as RISC V.
Bireme Capital mentioned ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM) in its Q4 2023 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“In our view this was a transparent attempt to boost revenue growth ahead of the IPO. This might work as a one-time boost to sales, but it is not sustainable and will anger and alienate customers. ARM’s largest customers increasingly choose to license just the ARM instruction set architecture (ISA) rather than purchase ARM’s off-the-shelf chip designs. They prefer to design their own chips so they can better optimize their hardware with their software, as Apple has done to great effect with its custom silicon. It is hard to imagine ARM getting significantly more revenue share while their value-add diminishes.”
3. Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 130
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 1.37%
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is a diversified hardware and software company. It has one of the biggest and most important semiconductor businesses in the industry. Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)’s connectivity chips are used in gadgets and electronics worldwide which have allowed it to become one of the dominant players in the industry. Its connectivity products also provide Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) with exposure to the growing data center industry and make it a key player in the AI race. The firm also makes and sells application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) which can become the industry’s mainstay AI chips in the future. ASICs are chips with user-defined use cases, and word on the street is that big-ticket AI names such as OpenAI have approached the firm to design custom AI chips to reduce reliance on NVIDIA’s powerhouse GPUs. Yet, the growing propensity in the industry towards customer chips could also work against Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), particularly if Apple decides to move its networking chip requirements in-house.
Baron Funds mentioned Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Broadcom Inc. is a global technology leader that designs, develops, and supplies a broad range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The stock rose during the quarter as it reported strong earnings on the back of its two key growth drivers, AI semiconductors and its acquired VMware software business. The company once again increased its outlook for AI-related revenue, now expecting $11 billion or more this year (versus prior guidance for $10 billion), on the back of strength in both hyperscale custom compute and networking chips, where Broadcom maintains dominating share. In networking, Broadcom’s solutions are critical to enabling AI training factories to scale towards 100,000 chip clusters in the near term and 1 million chip clusters over the coming years. In AI custom compute, Broadcom designs custom accelerators for large consumer- internet AI companies (such as Google and Meta), who are building increasingly large AI clusters to drive improvements in user engagement and targeted advertising on their consumer media platforms. VMware remains on track to continue rapid sequential growth while simultaneously reducing operating expenses, driving faster-than-expected margin expansion and accretion, as management has simplified the product offering and is converting customers from a license model to subscriptions. We believe VMware will grow beyond the $4 billion near-term quarterly target, well above current analyst expectations. These two factors combined have caused a re-rating to the growth profile for the overall company. To quote CEO Hock Tan, “there is only one Broadcom. Period.”
2. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 156
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 0.5%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is the world’s biggest contract chip manufacturer. The firm covers the chip manufacturing needs of all the biggest companies in the world such as Apple, NVIDIA, QUALCOMM, and AMD. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM)’s lead in the industry is also evident by the fact that the former chipmaking crown holder Intel is also expected to use the firm’s 3-nanometer process for some portions of its processors. Consequently, as chip making is an extremely capitally extensive endeavor that requires billions in investment and years of research, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) has a wide moat in the industry which is quite unlikely to be affected. However, Intel is the current underdog in the chipmaking industry and is aiming to set up its contract chipmaking business. Coupled with the geopolitical risks associated with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited’s (NYSE:TSM) Taiwan-based manufacturing, these two factors could shift the narrative around the company in the not-so-distant future.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is currently diversifying its production base and building a chipmaking plant in Arizona. Here’s what it said about the facility during its Q3 2024 earnings call:
“Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update. TSMC’s mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global logic IC industry for years to come. All of our overseas decisions are based on our customers’ needs.
They value some geographic flexibility and necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value of our shareholders. In Arizona, we have received strong commitment and support from our U.S. customers and the U.S. federal, state, and city governments and have made significant progress in the past several months. Our plan to build three fabs, will help create greater economies of scale, as each of our fabs in Arizona will have a clean room area that is approximately double the size of a typical logical fab. Our first fab entered engineered wafer production in April with 4-nanometer process technology, and the result is highly satisfactory with a very good yield. This is an important operational milestone for TSMC and our customers, demonstrating TSMC’s strong manufacturing capability and execution.
We now expect volume production of our first fab to start in the beginning of 2025 and are confident to deliver same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona as from our fabs in Taiwan. Our second and third fabs will utilize more advanced technologies based on our customers’ needs. The second fab is scheduled to begin volume production in 2028, and our third fab will begin production by the end of the decade. Thus, TSMC will continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers’ success while remaining a key partner and enabler of the U.S. semiconductor industry.”
1. ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 81
Shares Short % Of Outstanding: 0.27%
ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) was until very recently the most valuable company in Europe in terms of market capitalization. This fact alone underscores its importance in the global semiconductor industry. ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) commands a virtual monopoly when it comes to the latest chip manufacturing equipment. Its EUV and High NA EUV machines are some of the most sought products in the world, and without them, companies like Intel and TSMC can not make and sell the most advanced chips ever made. Yet, ASML Holding N.V.’s (NASDAQ:ASML) exposure to the highly cyclical chip industry which is often vulnerable to over and under-ordering leaves it vulnerable to reduced spending. This was also the case in October when its shares dropped by a whopping 21.6% in October when its 2025 guidance of spending by chip manufacturers spooked investors.
ASML Holding N.V.’s (NASDAQ:ASML) management commented on the state of the semiconductor industry during the Q3 2024 earnings call. Here is what they said:
“All-in-all, we have seen continued momentum EUV technology and we are progressing well relative to customer expectations. With regards to market condition, while we continue to view AI as a key driver of the industry recovery with potential upside, we see other segments recovering more slowly than anticipated. The recovery will extend well into 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness and some push outs in their investment. In logic, the slow recovery of end markets such as mobile and PC, together with specific competitive foundry dynamics, as resulted in a slower ramp of new nodes at certain customer who are as a results pushing out some of their fabs and changing their litho demand timing. In memory, the slower market recovery is also resulting in limited capacity addition with the focus still on technology transition, supporting the high bandwidth memory and DDR5 AI related demand.
And finally, we expect the China business to go back to a more normalized percentage of our business in line percentage of China business in our backlog. In summary, while the long-term trends are still very strong and positive, the developments over the past few months combined with customer specific circumstances has led to a reduced growth curve in 2025 and an over overall reduction of our lithography demand. Due to this dynamics over the last quarter, we felt it’ll be appropriate to make some comments on 2025 at this time versus waiting until our Investor Day next month.”
ASML is a semiconductor stock that institutional investors are piling into according to Jefferies. While we acknowledge the potential of ASML as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASML but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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