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JD.com Inc (JD): A Bullish Thesis

JD, sometimes referred to as Jingdong, is a Chinese e-commerce company that is evolving to become the leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. This summary is based on a stock write-up by VIC, which highlights JD.com (JD) as undervalued at $26 per share—less than its cash value of $28 per share. Despite challenges like weak consumer demand in China, competition from Alibaba (BABA) and Pinduoduo (PDD), and a sluggish post-pandemic recovery, VIC presents a compelling bullish case for JD. JD shares currently trade at $35. We are going to summarize VIC’s bullish thesis below:

A wide and imposing view of a supply chain distribution center, illustrating the company’s technology capabilities.

Share Buy-Back Program

VIC identifies the share buyback as the strongest factor supporting the bullish case. JD.com (JD) has substantial effective cash reserves and prudent capital spending. In 2024, JD completed its previous buyback program, repurchasing 7.2%, or $3 billion, of its shares in just five months. This move exemplifies management’s optimism about the company’s future growth prospects. With an additional $5 billion buyback program, JD is expected to continue reducing its shares in the market, potentially improving earnings per share (EPS) and enhancing shareholder wealth.

Growth in JD Retail and JD Logistics

From a practical standpoint, VIC notes that JD is registering growth across its JD Retail and JD Logistics service segments. Potential reasons for these improvements include supply chain efficiencies and scale benefits. JD Logistics, in particular, indicates a healthy incremental margin of 35%. Revenue is anticipated to grow steadily in the future, with JD Retail projected to deliver a CAGR of 3 percent, while JD Logistics is expected to expand by 10 percent. The total revenue is forecasted to reach approximately $180 billion by 2026.

Cash Generation and Financial Flexibility

VIC highlights that JD’s cash generation capabilities appear robust, with estimates of free cash flow generation ranging from $14 billion to $21 billion over the next three years. This provides significant financial headroom for additional buybacks or pursuing growth opportunities.

Projected Stock Performance

At a projected price of $50 by 2026, JD has the potential for a 2-3x return, translating to a 40% internal rate of return (IRR). VIC concludes that JD’s strong liquidity, ongoing buybacks, and margin expansion position the company well to create substantial shareholder value.

While we acknowledge the potential of JD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than JD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

Do the math. According to Musk, this technology could be worth $250 trillion by 2040.

Put another way, that’s roughly equal to:

  • 175 Teslas
  • 107 Amazons
  • 140 Metas
  • 84 Googles
  • 65 Microsofts
  • And 55 Nvidias

And here’s the wild part — this $250 trillion wave isn’t tied to one company, but to an entire ecosystem of AI innovators set to reshape the global economy.

It’s a leap so massive, it could reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate worldwide.

Even if that $250 trillion figure sounds ambitious, major firms like PwC and McKinsey still see AI unlocking multi-trillion-dollar potential.

How could anything be worth that much?

The answer lies in a breakthrough so powerful it’s redefining how humanity works, learns, and creates.

And this breakthrough has already set off a frenzy among hedge funds and Wall Street’s top investors.

What most investors don’t realize is that one under-owned company holds the key to this $250 trillion revolution.

In fact, Verge argues this company’s supercheap AI technology should concern rivals.

Before I reveal the details, let’s talk about how some of the richest people on the planet are positioning themselves.

  • Bill Gates sees artificial intelligence as the “biggest technological advance in my lifetime,” more transformative than the internet or personal computer, capable of improving healthcare, education, and addressing climate change.
  • Larry Ellison — through Oracle, is spending billions on Nvidia chips and partnering with Cohere to embed generative AI across Oracle’s cloud and apps.
  • Warren Buffett — not known for tech hype — says this breakthrough could have a ‘hugely beneficial social impact.

When billionaires from Silicon Valley to Wall Street line up behind the same idea — you know it’s worth paying attention to.

Even as we admire what Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft have built, we believe an even greater opportunity lies elsewhere…

But the real story isn’t Nvidia — it’s a much smaller company quietly improving the critical technology that makes this entire revolution possible.

And judging by what I’m hearing from both Silicon Valley insiders and Wall Street veterans…

This prediction might not be bold at all:

A few years from now, you’ll wish you’d owned this stock.

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Wall Street calls this $3 stock a “Melting Ice Cube.” They said the same thing about BTI before it returned 90%.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

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We alerted our subscribers, and BTI returned 90% in just 16 months.

Now if you had invested just $10,000 in BTI in June 2024, you’d be sitting on $19,000 in October 2025.

Today, we have identified a nearly identical pattern in a digital-first giant trading at $3.

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