Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Roger Thompson: Yes, I can help a little bit, but not a lot there because, as you say, it’s very early in the year, and a lot of those are either midyear or year-end. Crystallizations, again, to give you the facts, there’s 2 pieces of performance fees to look at. There’s the U.S. mutual funds, which is about $50 billion of assets, which are subject to performance fees. There, you can see that their 3-year rolling, you can see what’s dropping off. We’ve got a couple of areas, and they’re these so they’re negative at the moment. We’d have to add some good performance to improve those with flat performance. So you know what’s dropping off, you don’t know what it’s adding. But with flat performance, you can calculate that we would or we would expect to see about $60 million, $63 million of negative performance fees in in 2023 without any alpha.

Outside of that, there’s about $29 billion of AUM with performance fees on it. As I say, that’s difficult to predict what’s going to happen. But we are in a — it’s in a range of products and a good number of those are at or above their high watermarks. So sorry for not being able to help fully hopefully, as we had some good alpha and those numbers can come in, but that will depend on what we do in the year.

Operator: Our next question comes from Bill Katz from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead, Bill, your line is now open.

Bill Katz: First of all, thanks for moving the time of the release for us. That’s helpful. So first question, just maybe picking up on noncomp. If I think about your gross savings and then your net increase in your year-on-year noncomp of mid- to high single digits, it would sort of impute to a high single, low double gross spend rate. Is that the right way to characterize it? And B, if that’s correct, I know it’s early, obviously, for ’23. But where are you in the spending cycle maybe on the sort of intentional spend as we start to think about ’24 and beyond in terms of that noncomp growth rate?

Roger Thompson: Yes, as you said, so in Q4, we were running ahead on saves over spend. Those things will start to materialize more in Q1. So that will normalize that. So as Ali said, that’s really just timing. And then — so I wouldn’t — I think Q4 is a little bit artificial probably is what I’m saying, which is why you should look at the full year, and that’s a mid-to high-digit growth rate. As we just said on the on the call with Liz, who probably doesn’t agree with you with the call moving by an hour to — an hour later. So sorry for our Australian friends. Then 40% of that is accounting. So as I said, you’re going to split that into 3 pieces, there’s the accounting, there’s the inflation and FX and there’s the investment. And that investment piece, yes, we we’ve got plans for those. We’re trying to get out of the blocks in the right places as soon as we can.

Ali Dibadj: And Bill, just to the pure math of how you’re describing it, I think that makes sense. If we didn’t have the cost savings, our investments would be significantly higher. You mentioned low double digits, that’s probably in the right range.

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