We recently compiled a list of the 10 Unstoppable Dividend Stocks to Buy. In this article, we will have a look at where Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) ranks among the other unstoppable dividend stocks to buy.
It’s undeniable that dividends have played a key role in the market’s returns over the past year. While they hit a rough patch for a bit, these stocks still have plenty of room to grow. Their rising significance is tied to the fact that US companies are boosting their dividend payouts, thanks to strong cash flow. Many US firms, particularly in the tech sector, have substantial cash reserves on their balance sheets. Due to this, several major tech companies have introduced dividend policies this year, sparking renewed interest in dividend stocks.
In addition, with the market shifting away from top-performing stocks and the Federal Reserve likely to reduce interest rates, dividend stocks remain a valuable option for investors seeking solid returns. Dan Lefkovitz, a strategist for Morningstar Indexes, also supported investing in dividend stocks this year. Here are some comments from the analyst:
“Investing in dividend-paying stocks is a good way to participate in equities over the long term. There have been long stretches when the dividend-paying section of the market has outperformed. Eventually, they’ll come back into favor.”
When it comes to dividend stock investing, the attention is often split between high yields and dividend growth. Analysts tend to favor dividend growth, as it offers a more reliable income stream. In contrast, high yields can sometimes be misleading, hinting at potential financial difficulties. A report from RBC Wealth Management highlights that high-yield stocks have been lagging behind those with lower yields this year. By July 2024, stocks yielding less than 1% delivered an average return of 18%, significantly outperforming the 0.9% average return of stocks yielding over 3%. The report also mentioned that the Dividend Aristocrats, companies that have raised their payouts for at least 25 consecutive years, have historically performed well both during and after economic downturns. Their success is built on appealing valuations relative to the broader market and business models that have proven durable in the face of economic uncertainty. Currently, these equities are trading at a trailing twelve-month P/E of 24.95, which indicates confidence in the stability and growth of these companies.
Several reports have highlighted that while dividend growth companies might not deliver instant gratification, they provide significant long-term advantages. Nuveen, an Illinois-based financial planning firm, also expressed a positive view on dividend growth strategies this year, noting their strong historical track record. The report emphasized that companies focused on growing their dividends possess qualities that pave the way for solid performance in the future. Over the long haul, companies that consistently boost or introduce dividends have outpaced other market segments, achieving higher annualized returns with less volatility. While they may not always shine in every market condition, their steady, risk-adjusted returns over time make them a cornerstone for any equity portfolio—truly a case of “slow and steady wins the race.” With that, we will take a look at unstoppable stocks that pay dividends.
Our Methodology:
For this article, we first used a stock screener to identify stocks that have reported positive returns in 2024 so far. From this selection, we chose dividend stocks with year-to-date (YTD) gains of at least 30%, as of the close of September 9. The stocks were then arranged in ascending order of their YTD gains.
We also measured hedge fund sentiment around each stock according to Insider Monkey’s database of 912 funds as of Q2 2024. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
Solar panel workers installing a new farm for clean energy generation.
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST)
Year-to-Date Return as of September 9: 92.3%
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) is an American electricity and power generation company that focuses on related markets. The company could benefit from the rising use of generative AI, as increased AI activity will drive up energy demand. With the company investing in alternative energy sources, it is well-positioned to address these growing needs and become a more diversified energy stock. In March, Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) expanded its presence in nuclear energy by completing the acquisition of Energy Harbor. With a year-to-date return of over 92%, VST tops our list of the best unstoppable stocks that pay dividends.
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) reported robust earnings for the latest quarter. Construction has begun on two new solar facilities: a 200 MW site supported by Amazon in Texas and a 405 MW site backed by Microsoft in Illinois. Additionally, pending the successful implementation of market reforms, appropriate market signals, and other conditions, the company plans to develop up to 2,000 MW of gas-fueled electric capacity in its home state to improve grid reliability for its customers. It reported revenues of $3.8 billion in Q2 2024, up from 20.5% from the same period last year.
Legacy Ridge Capital Management, LLC mentioned Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the firm has to say:
“One of the sectors we know well which had been out of favor for several years has quickly come into favor: Independent Power Producers (IPPs). We’ve written consistently about NRG and Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) since the 2019 letter, have owned each, or both, since 2018, and invested a meaningful amount of our assets in VST specifically the past few years. Nate and I intend on spending more time in the year-end letter on our updated views on the IPPs and our learnings from the on-going investment, but we were a bit surprised how quickly the narrative around these companies changed. Our Blue Sky 2030 estimates of intrinsic value converged with the share price 6-years before we thought probable. In the 2019 letter, with respect to VST, we wrote:
“Over the next decade management should have close to $15 Billion to deploy to share repurchases. If you assume they have to pay an average price for the stock that’s higher than the current one, and they can only repurchase 60% of shares outstanding instead of the 100% the math implies, FCF per share in 2030 would be $14. That’s a $70 stock at today’s valuation, but a $140 stock at a more reasonable FCF yield of 10%.” And… “The IPPs are un-investable for most money managers, so there we are. When they become investable we’ll probably be long gone.”
We’re not exactly long gone, but sentiment has certainly surpassed investable. After 5+ years of VST trading between $17 – $26 a share—and $26 exactly a year ago—it hit a high of $107 in May on the heels of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) narrative and the implications for electricity demand. While we agree with the prevailing consensus view that more Data Centers will be built, Data Centers require base load energy, and that the US will probably be short base load energy, predicting the rate of any technological advancement is not our area of expertise, and we feel the margin of safety has dissipated. Therefore, what had been our largest position entering 2023 and 2024, and has been our greatest contributor to performance, is now one of the smaller positions in the fund.”
On July 31, Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2195 per share, hiking it by 0.9% from the previous quarter. This was the company’s 11th consecutive quarter of dividend growth. As of September 9, the stock has a dividend yield of 1.13%.
The number of hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey owning stakes in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) jumped significantly from 79 in the previous quarter, to 92 in Q2 2024. The total value of these stakes is more than $4 billion.
Overall VST ranks 1st on our list of the unstoppable dividend stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential for VST as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than VST but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
