We recently published a list of 12 Best Oil Refinery Stocks To Invest In According to Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) stands against other best oil refinery stocks to invest in according to analysts.
The United States of America is the Largest Oil Producing Country in the World with current production reaching record levels, so it doesn’t come as a surprise that it is also counted among the Countries with the Largest Refining Capacities. The US had 132 oil refineries with a total capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day (bpd) at the start of 2024, a 2% increase compared with the start of 2023.
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2024 was a difficult year for the global refining sector as industry players faced a drop in profitability to multi-year lows amid soft consumer and industrial demand (especially in China), slowing economic growth, increasing energy transition, and expanding global refining capacity. The declining fuel margins in the Q4 2024 led to disappointing earnings results for many oil refiners, as a flood of new output competed with stagnating demand. This has led to several oil majors shutting down operations and putting their refineries up for sale, but that is also not going as smoothly as expected.
Things don’t seem to be getting any better either as according to the International Energy Agency’s recent market outlook, growth in the global demand for oil is expected to slow down in the coming years as energy transitions advance, putting downward pressure on prices. The US Energy Information Administration stated last month that it expects Brent crude oil prices to fall 8% to average $74 a barrel in 2025, then fall further to $66 a barrel in 2026, further reducing margins for refiners.
Moreover, despite his repeated calls to ramp up oil production in the country, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada could make things worse for the refining sector. Many refineries in the Midwest depend on Canadian crude and the upcoming 10% tariff will force them to pay either more for their feedstock, or slash production, further squeezing an industry already in decline. The President wants to make America self-sufficient and independent when it comes to energy, but no matter how much oil the United States pumps, its refineries were designed to process the darker, denser, cheaper crude that is hard to find domestically. However, Trump’s plans to roll back support for electric vehicles and charging stations could slow their sales and bolster gasoline demand, offering some respite to the industry.
The rapid energy transition is also a major cause of concern for the refining sector as governments push drivers toward electric vehicles in pursuit of climate goals. So the only way forward is for the industry to adapt and evolve. Several forward-looking refiners are now boosting their resilience by upgrading their facilities to produce higher-value but lower-carbon products such as petrochemicals and renewable fuels, though it will require significant capital investment.
The energy sector has witnessed considerable fluctuations over the last few months, surging by over 6% in November before declining around 10% in December. However, the broader energy sector ended last year with a return of just 5.72%, significantly lagging behind gains of 25% by the wider market. Nevertheless, the sector’s performance over the past 3-year and 5-year periods remains strong.
Methodology
To collect data for this article, we examined all the companies in the oil refining sector that are listed on NASDAQ and NYSE and then compiled a list of the stocks with the highest upside potential according to Wall Street analysts, as of February 18, 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Massive storage tanks filled with crude oil and diesel fuels at an oil refinery.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO)
Stock Upside Potential: 9.11%
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) is the world’s largest independent petroleum refiner and a leading producer of low-carbon transportation fuels. With a workforce of over 6,000, Valero has 15 refineries in the US, Canada, and the UK, with a total throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day.
Due to the ongoing challenges in the refining sector, Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) saw its Q4 2024 revenue drop 13% YoY to $30.76 billion, but still beating the analysts’ estimates by over $733 million. The company’s adjusted EPS also fell by a massive 82.1% to $0.64 but remained above market expectations by $0.58. Valero’s refining segment reported $437 million of operating income for Q4 2024 compared to $1.6 billion for the same period in 2023. However, the company continued to honor its commitment to shareholder returns with a payout ratio of 78% for 2024, returning $601 million to its stockholders in Q4 and increasing its quarterly cash dividend by 6%, putting it among the 13 Best Natural Gas and Oil Dividend Stocks To Buy.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) announced last month that it is progressing with an FCC Unit optimization project at its St. Charles Refinery that will enable it to increase the yield of high-value products including high-octane alkylate. The project is estimated to cost $230 million and is expected to start up in 2026.
Overall, VLO ranks 10th on our list of best oil refinery stocks to invest in according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential for VLO to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than VLO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
