We recently made a list of the 10 Best Global Stocks To Buy Now. In this piece, we will look at where UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) ranks among the top ten global stocks to buy.
With the third quarter of 2024 ending, the discourse on the stock market for global equities has shifted back to interest rates. This comes after artificial intelligence drove markets through the course of the year, but with interest rate cuts having commenced in Europe and China’s economy refusing to roar back, global equity investors are carefully parsing through their investments to see which stocks might be worth it.
This was the gist of a note released by Goldman Sachs in July. In it, the bank advised investors to sift through stocks to eliminate those that have exposure to China. This is because Chinese economic growth has remained sluggish, and after Q2 GDP growth figures for the Asian economic giant sat at 4.7%, Goldman and Citi slashed their GDP growth estimates for 2024 to 4.7%. The two banks’ earlier estimates were 4.9% and 4.8%, and in its European investor note, GS’ analysts raised alarm for several potential headwinds for European firms that could emanate from China. The top three of these were a weak demand in China for discretionary products, the country’s plans to tax luxury goods, and potential retaliatory tariffs against European countries after the EU decided to increase tariffs for Chinese made electric vehicles. “While a great deal of earnings downgrades have already occurred year-to-date for our luxury basket, we worry that more could take place,” the Goldman analysts warned, adding that “the valuation premium of the basket has deflated, but remains on the high side of its history.”
A slowdown in Chinese consumer spending, which was also evident in the country’s latest data release that saw retail sales growth sit at 2%, is particularly worrisome for German stocks. This is because they have already felt the pinch of the slowdown during Q2 and H1 2024. For instance, German watch company Swatch saw its China sales drop by 30% in H1 while the luxury goods manufacturer LVMH experienced a 14% Asian sales drop in Q2 which came after Mercedes-Benz’s China sales dropped by 3% in Q1.
For Germany, this is particularly troubling as its economy has suffered after the disruption of cheap Russian gas in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. The German economy contracted by 0.3% in 2023 and continued its downward pace in Q2 by posting a 0.1% sequential contraction. German firms’ disappointing Chinese performance came when the country’s overall exports to China dropped by 14% annually in May to sit at €7.5 billion.
Shifting gears, let’s take a bird’s eye view of global stocks. On this front, JPMorgan has some insights. In its mid year outlook, the bank’s chief global economist Bruce Kasman shared that “Global growth has moderated to a still-solid 2.4% (annual rate) and is less dependent on a U.S. demand engine, as recoveries in Western Europe and emerging markets (excluding China) find firmer footing. The manufacturing sector is also showing signs of recovery, helped in part by a pickup in business spending.” However, in the report which was published in July, the bank remained pessimistic about inflation as it shared that core inflation should sit at 3% at the close of 2024. This led it to wager that higher for longer was the way to go and led to a cumulative 35 basis points of easing in developed markets except Japan by 2024 end.
Yet, the European Central Bank (ECB) led the global charge for rate cuts. It cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and followed it with another 25 basis point cut in September. Additionally, the Bank of England (BOE) also cut rates by lowering rates by 25 basis points to 5% in August for the first interest rate cuts since the coronavirus pandemic was wreaking havoc in 2020. Moving forward, analysts are divided on the BOE’s future rate cuts, and many believe that the ECB might be less forthcoming with the cuts as well.
While several of the world’s biggest economies have suffered this year, global stocks as a whole have performed well. One of the most well known global stock indexes compiled by the MSCI opened at 3,144 points this year. Its latest value is 3,728 to mark a neat 18.5% year to date growth. However, European stocks have lagged in this performance, with the index of the region’s top 600 stocks having delivered a 10.2% return year to date through price appreciation. This is unsurprising since these 600 firms’ Q1 2024 EPS dropped by roughly 2.5%. However, estimates suggest that these stocks can post at least a 10% EPS growth during Q3 2024.
Our Methodology
To make our list of the best global stocks to buy, we ranked the US listed stocks of JPMorgan’s International Equity ETF by the number of hedge funds that had bought the shares in Q2 2024 and picked the top stocks. This particular ETF was preferred because it chose to focus on a diversified set of global stocks as opposed to several others that focused primarily on US tech giants.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
An investor in a suit representing the company, seated in front of a long table of global leaders discussing the company’s investments.
UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders In Q2 2024: 33
UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) is a diversified Swiss bank with a presence in wealth management, asset management, investment banking, and corporate and personal banking. The firm became quite crucial to global financial stability in 2023 when it bought out the assets of distressed Swiss bank Citibank. Citibank was UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)’s largest competitor in the Swiss market and the bank was able to buy its rival for an unbelievable 80% discount. The deal appears to have come just in time for UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS), as lower rates are expected to also lower revenues for banks while also helping them in the form of lower costs. However, as it brings Credit Suisse’s assets under its portfolio, UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) is experiencing growth. During Q1, it reported $1.8 billion in profit which was more than 3x of analyst estimates of $598 million. As of H1 2024, UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)’s wealth management assets jumped by 3% to $54 billion and the bank can see additional tailwinds from the Credit Suisse deal in the future. Yet, it could also impact the income statement if UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)’s capital requirements are also increased.
The global banking sector has been in a tussle with regulators for Basel III regulations. Here’s what UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS)’s management had to say on this front during the Q2 2024 earnings call:
“So on Basel III final as mentioned, we still expect $25 billion impact is 5% of risk-weighted assets, so in that range. As you mentioned, we guided in the fourth quarter in our investor update that $15 billion is in the core, $10 billion is in non-core. I think for now, that split remains pretty robust in terms of how we’re thinking — how we’re seeing it, and actually we’ll continue to work down the NCL portfolio to make that impact lessened over time. In terms of the NII guidance for P&C, just to — you asked for clarity on — it is in Swiss francs, so we’re guiding in Swiss francs. We’ll offer both in the future to sort of help. As I mentioned, in 3Q, we see a low single-digit down in Swissy, but flat sequentially in USD.
And as I mentioned, I think that’s a good outcome that we’ve had a number of headwinds that we’ve been working through sort of reaffirm the guidance for the full-year is also a function of some management actions that have been taken, including some loan repricing actions that have helped. So those are the drivers of the NII guidance for P&C.”
Overall UBS ranks 8th on our list of the best global stocks to buy now. While we acknowledge the potential of UBS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UBS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: $30 Trillion Opportunity: 15 Best Humanoid Robot Stocks to Buy According to Morgan Stanley and Jim Cramer Says NVIDIA ‘Has Become A Wasteland’.
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published on Insider Monkey. All investment decisions should be made after consulting a qualified professional.
