We recently compiled a list of the 7 Best American Bank Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we will look at where The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW) stands against the other American bank stocks.
According to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, August marked a 142,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, up from 89,000 in July but less than the 161,000 predicted by most analysts. As anticipated, the jobless rate dropped slightly by 4.2%. However, the “real” unemployment rate increased to 7.9%, the highest level since October 2021. Moreover, the average hourly wage grew by 3.8% over the previous year and by 0.4% over the previous month, exceeding the predicted increases by 3.7% and 0.3%.
Nonetheless, the U.S. market for digital banking platforms is growing rapidly, and it was estimated at $1.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.63% to reach $2.04 billion by 2031, according to Verified Market Research. Per the research, it is expanding due to a number of factors, including shifting customer preferences, the rise of mobile banking, technological advancements, and the need for customization.
On the other hand, according to the Research and Markets, the US retail banking market is expected to expand by $91.47 billion between 2023 and 2028, with a CAGR of 4.35% during that forecast period. The industry is being pushed by the further digital transformation of retail banking, the expansion of fintech company partnerships, and the increased emphasis on financial inclusion per the research.
In the United States, the average bank account balance increased from $5,300 in 2019 to $8,000 in 2022. In 2022, the median balance was $62,500, a 29% increase from 2019 as per the Forbes survey. The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that 98.2% of American families own a transaction account of some kind. As per the Federal Reserve: Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2021, the percentage of people without banks is 6%, up 1% from 2020 to 2021. As of 2022, 78% of consumers preferred smartphone applications or websites over traditional in-person banking, revealing the dominance of digital banking according to the Forbes Advisor: 2022 Digital Banking Survey. For 57% of Americans, debit cards are their preferred mode of payment per the Forbes 2023 Banking Survey, and even though rates are likely to rise, only 48% of people have opened a certificate of deposit (CD) as per the survey.
According to the US Bank Market Report 2024, U.S. bank earnings are expected to fall 2.8% year on year, discounting gains from unsuccessful bank acquisitions in 2023. Pressure on net interest margins and rising credit costs are the causes behind this decline. As banks acknowledge losses on their commercial real estate portfolios and accumulate reserves, higher loan costs are expected. In 2025 and 2026, earnings are anticipated to grow despite these obstacles as loan loss provisions decline and profitability increases.
Looking forward, Deloitte’s “2024 banking and capital markets outlook” outlines that, amidst a volatile global economy, the banking and capital markets industry will confront significant challenges in 2024. The industry is changing as a result of tighter rules, rising interest rates, and a declining money supply. Digital identity and generative AI are two examples of how quickly advancing technology will change how banks function and provide for their customers.
Banks need to adapt to modest organic growth and discover new revenue streams even with a strong base. The increase in private capital is one of the rising competitive forces that trading and investment banking will need to adjust to. In addition, the industry is reevaluating its tactics in light of evolving business models and recent regulatory changes.
Methodology:
We sifted through holdings of bank ETFs and online rankings to form an initial list of 20 American bank stocks. Then we selected the 7 stocks that were the most popular among institutional investors. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
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The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 72
The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW), an American savings and loan holding company, was established in 1986 and offers a range of services, including banking, asset management, wealth management, custody, and financial advising.
About half of the company’s revenue comes from net interest income, and the company is best recognized for its platforms for retail investors and registered investment advisors. As of the end of 2023, it held about $300 billion in deposits.
According to Morningstar analysts, Charles Schwab is doing well in terms of capital and liquidity, and within the next year, earnings should be on a sustainable, rising trajectory.
Growing interest rates have put pressure on Charles Schwab by causing bank deposits to decline and net interest margins to decrease. In order to counter this, the company intends to reduce the size of its bank and transfer excess deposits to third-party banks, which will improve liquidity at the expense of slower growth. According to the analysts, the change may hurt earnings in the short run, but if rates and inflation stay high, the long-term plan could potentially turn out well. While the negative case emphasizes additional earnings concerns brought on by higher-cost funding, the bull case sees Schwab stabilizing by adjusting to a high-rate environment.
Charles Schwab became the biggest retail broker in the US by client assets after acquiring TD Ameritrade, which strengthened its offerings for individual investors and improved trading.
Ariel Appreciation Fund stated the following regarding The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Shares of global investment bank, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), also rose in the period following solid earnings results, highlighted by strength in fixed income, currencies 1 Sindreu, Jon. “The Second Quarter Split the Market.” The Wall Street Journal, July 1, 2024, p. B9. and commodities (FICC) as well as equities trading and better-than-expected investment banking fees. Meanwhile, GS continues to successfully execute on its strategic initiatives to improve the overall return of the company. It is right sizing headcount and narrowing its ambitions in consumer strategy through divestitures and working to improve profitability in Platform Solutions by 2025. With the possibility of increased capital requirements from its regulators, GS plans to reign in buybacks over the short-term but maintain its dividend. Looking ahead, we continue to view the near and long-term outlook for Goldman as attractive, given favorable business trends, continued positive momentum on strategic initiatives and active expense/capital management programs.”
The company anticipates profitability in late 2024, supported by stabilization of the net interest margin and expense savings. With Schwab’s solid market position and growth prospects in mind, DBS analyst Ken Shih set a price target of $82.
Overall SCHW ranks 5th on our list of the best American bank stocks to buy according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of SCHW as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SCHW but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.