Is The Boeing Company (BA) Back on Track?

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Embraer
is a Brazil-based holding company primarily engaged in the manufacture of aircrafts. However, the industry is largely dominated by Boeing and Airbus, both of which have more established operations and brand names. Not unlike Boeing, Embraer is susceptible to large earnings impacts due to order cancellations; however, I take solace in the fact that Boeing has a much broader customer base.

Embraer’s loss of its Delta Airlines contract in late 2012 was a big blow to the company. The order was for 40 regional jets and an option for 30 more. However, the stock is relatively flat over the last twelve months, despite missing earnings by at least 20% in each of the last four quarters. What’s more is that with an 18.2 times P/E, Embraer trades in line with Boeing, but I don’t think it deserves to.

While The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) had 41 hedge funds long the stock, Embrarer had only 8 at year’s end, which was a 27% decrease in hedge fund owners from the third quarter. The notable hedge funds dumping their stock last quarter include Arrow Street, who sold off their $10.3 million investment in the stock, and billionaire Israel Englander followed suit, dumping about $4 million worth.

One of Boeing’s chief defense contractor competitors is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) Grumman  . Its stock is up over 5% this week after posting EPS of $2.03 for 1Q 2013, which beat consensus of $1.74. What’s more is that Northrop provided 2013 EPS guidance of $6.85 to $7.15, compared to consensus of $7.02.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) is the fourth largest U.S. defense contractor, behind Boeing at third. Yet, the thing about Northrop, unlike Boeing, is that the majority of its business is generated within the U.S., with U.S. government related sales accounting for 90% of sales 2012 sales.
Where Boeing has some insulation thanks to a more diversified product portfolio, the likes of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC),
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) and General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) are highly vulnerable to the U.S. Government’s budget deficits and political uncertainty. Northrop also generated nearly 45% of its sales in full year 2012 from fixed priced contracts, which limits the company’s ability make a profit should costs come in higher than contract costs.

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) also had strong negative hedge fund sentiment heading into 2013, with 21 hedge funds long the stock, which was a 13% decrease from the previous quarter. Its most notable hedge fund owner included Jean-Marie Eveillard’s First Eagle Investment Management with the largest position in the stock worth close to $424 million and comprising 1.5% of its total 13F portfolio.

Don’t be fooled

Boeing continues to impress investors and analysts, having beaten consensus expectations in each of the last four quarters. The stock is trading at an attractive valuation, with a PEG of only 0.98. The near term concerns related to the Dreamliner have largely been factored into the stock, and it’s now time to look to the future.

The article Is This High Flyer Back on Track? originally appeared on Fool.com is written by Marshall Hargrave.

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