Is Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Really Worth $100 a Share?

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently told analysts that it expects to be making around 500,000 vehicles a year eventually, but there are reasons to be skeptical about its ability to get there.

Start with this one: Counting all of its variations (wagons, coupes, sedans, convertibles, et cetera), BMW sold  406,752 3-Series around the world in 2012. Given BMW’s global brand cachet and the (well-deserved) excellent reputation of the 3-Series in particular, that’s probably the extreme upper limit of global annual sales for the future baby Tesla we discussed above.

The realistic number of sales that Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) could achieve in any given year is probably a lot smaller. That means that even when we add in Model S and Model X sales, and sales from a future next-generation Roadster, Tesla’s going to have to execute to perfection and dodge competitors just to get close to that 500,000 number.

Given what we know today – and granted, things could change – it’s very hard to see how it could increase sales much beyond that.

Second, General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is about to roll out a new electric car of its own, the Chevy Spark EV. It’s a little tiny car with just  82 miles of range, but it’s priced right: $19,995 after that federal tax credit, or you can lease it for $199 a month. It’s not a Tesla, but it’s said to be a hoot to drive as cheap small cars go, with a zero to 60 time under eight seconds.

GM probably won’t sell very many, but think long and hard about what GM – which has been playing with electric cars off and on for about 20 years now, since the first EV1 – could do if there turned out to be a serious market for a battery-electric compact luxury sedan at $45,000 or thereabouts.

Or for that matter, what BMW or Volkswagen, or Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), or Honda Motor Co Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:HMC) could do. Remember that this mass-market Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still three to four years away, according to Musk, so there’s some time to work on this.

If you add up all of the above, and you can still explain to me – with facts, and realistic assumptions – why Tesla’s stock is worth $100 a share right now, then you absolutely should. Scroll down to leave a comment and share your thoughts.

The article Is Tesla Motors Really Worth $100 a Share? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by John Rosevear.

Fool contributor John Rosevear owns shares of Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM). Follow him on Twitter at @jrosevear. The Motley Fool recommends BMW, Ford, General Motors, and Tesla Motors. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford and Tesla Motors.

Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.