We recently published a list of 10 Best Economic Recovery Stocks to Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) stands against other best economic recovery stocks to buy.
Economic cycles, as defined by economists, alternate between periods of growth, peak, recession, and recovery, depending on the stage that a country’s economy is at. In particular, the term “economic recovery” describes the period that follows a recession and is characterized by improving employment, increased business activity and investment, rising consumer confidence, and accelerating GDP growth. Recoveries usually start after governments enact fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate investment and spending – the primary stimulative instrument in the US has been the FED funds rate. When an economic recovery kicks in, the sectors that tend to outperform are the cyclical ones – consumer discretionary, industrial, financial, and technology – driven by both a recovery in the previously depressed valuations as well as by broad acceleration in growth.
Another important consideration for investors is that the stock market and the economy do not move in sync; the former tends to be a forward-looking animal, meaning that stock prices tend to rise in anticipation of an economic recovery, while the actual economic conditions may still be depressed and reflect low GDP growth, high unemployment and sluggish private spending. Consequently, the key takeaway for readers is that investments in economic recovery stocks shall be made during peak uncertainty and pain, at or near a market bottom when everyone is fearful and reluctant to buy. As the legendary Warren Buffet has put it,
“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.”
READ ALSO: 11 Best Counter Cyclical Stocks to Buy According to Analysts.
The US economy and stock market are the most developed in the world and often reflect textbook examples of economic cycles. The previous unofficial recession in the US occurred in 2022, when the GDP growth posted 2 quarters of negative growth amid a sharp increase in interest rates to combat rising inflation. The stock market moved in sync with the economy during that year. The following year, 2023, resembled a slow recovery fueled by the emergence of the AI megatrend as well as strong public spending on infrastructure and other large projects. Calendar 2024 and early 2025 resembled an economic peak, as growth moderated and private spending became weaker. In such moments, even the slightest economic headwind and/or uncertainty can trigger a recession and a broad market meltdown. That’s exactly what happened with the new Trump 2.0 administration, which brought plenty of uncertainty related to tariffs and sharp cuts in the public sector.
While most investors are currently concerned about declining stock prices (the main US stock market benchmark is down over 11% at the time of this write-up since its February peak), the smart money is already looking for signals of a potential recovery. Atlanta Fed projects that the US economy posted negative real GDP growth in Q1 2025, estimated at -2.4%; given the uncertainty and tariff threats persisting in April as well, chances are that Q2 2025 will be in negative territory as well, which would mark an official recession. The problem is that the stock market already prices in such a scenario, which makes it difficult to exploit or hedge against. The only plausible move at the moment is to look for economic recovery stocks in an attempt to time the market bottom. We believe there are solid reasons to believe that the stock market bottomed out in early April and that things will only improve going forward.
The most important signal in favor of a potential economic recovery ahead is that Trump’s tariffs proliferate as a short-term negotiation tool only, which seems to work well in relation to most trading partners. On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause in new tariffs for 75 countries until negotiations to discuss potential solutions are arranged. Here’s how Kevin Breuninger, a CNBC journalist, commented the following on the recent developments:
The White House is clarifying that Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff “pause” means that the “tariff level will be brought down to a universal 10% tariff” during that time, while “negotiations are ongoing.” That respite does not apply to China, which will see U.S. tariffs on its goods rise to 125%.
We see this announcement as a sign that chances are high that the US will reach a positive agreement with the 75 countries mentioned. While the situation with China is still intense, things could deescalate if other countries reach agreements with the US and set the stage for China as well. In this context, if the tariffs saga is successfully navigated, the main headwind for the economy will dissipate, potentially triggering a broad economic recovery that would push stock prices higher. With that being said, we may currently be at an opportune moment to pick the best economic recovery stocks.
An aerial view of a luxurious cruise ship, surrounded by the blue horizon.
Our Methodology
We used a screener to identify stocks with at least a 20% revenue compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last 5 years. Then, we selected the top 10 stocks with the largest estimated average analysts’ upside and included them in the article in ascending order. For each stock, we also include the number of hedge funds that own the stock as of Q4 2024. The stocks are ranked according to the upside potential.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)
Estimated average analysts’ upside: 53.18%
Revenue CAGR last 5 years: 88.47%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 58
Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL) is one of the largest global cruise companies, operating more than 67 cruising ships across five brands, including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises, serving tourists across the entire world. The company’s strength consists of offering diverse and innovative cruise experiences and onboard amenities, which attract new travelers each year and continuously popularize the cruising holidays format. As consumer spending on leisure tends to increase during economic recoveries, RCL is poised to benefit from heightened demand for vacations, which makes it one of the best economic recovery stocks to buy in anticipation of a potential market rebound.
Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL) delivered exceptional results in the latest Q4 as well as full year 2024, with a record 8.6 million vacations, 11.6% net yield growth, and over $5 billion in operating cash flow generated. The company achieved its trifecta of financial goals 18 months ahead of schedule while expanding capital allocation and maintaining investment-grade metrics. For 2025, management expects 23% earnings growth compared to last year, despite significant headwinds from foreign exchange and fuel rates.
Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL) announced a significant strategic expansion with Celebrity River Cruises, placing an initial order for 10 ships to launch in 2027. This expansion into river cruising represents an attractive high-margin, high ROIC business opportunity in a growing market that has experienced double-digit growth over the last decade. The company continues to strengthen its private destination portfolio, with the Beach Club in Nassau opening in late 2025 and Perfect Day Mexico in development, while maintaining strong booking momentum with the best five booking weeks in company history.
Overall, RCL ranks 8th on our list of best economic recovery stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of RCL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than RCL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
