We recently published a list of 8 Most Profitable Lithium Stocks to Invest In. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) stands against other most profitable lithium stocks to invest in.
The lithium market has proven to be a crucial driver as the world moves toward clean energy. Lithium is an essential component for rechargeable batteries, powering electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage systems, and electronics. Due to technological improvements in batteries and a commitment to carbon reduction, demand for lithium has escalated over the last decade. Fortune Business Insights valued the global lithium market at $22.19 billion in 2023, which is projected to reach $134.02 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 22.1%. Despite this promising long-term scope, the lithium industry has faced significant volatility due to supply and demand imbalance and price fluctuations.
Reuters reported that, despite strong demand, lithium prices dropped 86% in the last two years from their peak in November 2022, primarily due to global oversupply that forced many mining operations to pause. Furthermore, the restart of a Chinese lithium carbonate refinery after a five-month pause could further weaken the case for any price recovery in the near future. As a result of this resumption, the oversupply issue could get worse and therefore, shares of big lithium companies in Asia and Australia have seen a decline.
However, analysts predict market stabilization by 2025 as supply and demand rebalance. With China leading the EV market and implementing vigorous policies, excess supply should be absorbed, potentially reversing price drops in the past two years. In addition, EV battery demand continues to grow, with global consumption reaching over 750 GWh in 2023, 40% higher than in 2022. The IEA posted that the U.S. and European EV markets had the fastest growth, each exceeding 40% year-over-year. As transportation electrification accelerates, so does the demand for lithium, establishing its crucial role in the battery metals industry. However, the industry faces production and sustainability challenges even as lithium demand surges. According to McKinsey & Company, battery producers struggle to secure raw materials, scale production, and meet sustainability targets, making supply chain resilience critical.
Meanwhile, lithium extraction raises environmental concerns, including water depletion and toxic waste, drawing increased attention from environmentalists and regulators. Companies are exploring technologies like Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE), offering better recovery rates and reduced environmental impact. Simultaneously, alternative battery chemistries like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and sodium-ion batteries could diversify the market. However, these alternatives are still in early development and are not likely to replace lithium metal in the near future.
Looking forward, the lithium industry is poised to undergo a structural change. After years of oversupply, Fastmarkets projects a tighter market in 2025. By 2026, the market might face a deficit, with oversupply dropping from 154,000 metric tons in 2024 to just 10,000 metric tons, driven by continued EV adoption and battery storage demand. Through these short-term uncertainties, long-term fundamentals remain strong as analysts predict sustained lithium consumption growth and increased investments in mining and refining. With companies navigating these hurdles, lithium’s role remains essential to the global energy transition and investors seeking green energy resources.
Methodology
To compile our list of the Most Profitable Lithium Stocks to Invest In, we first identified companies with significant operations in the lithium sector. We then ranked these companies based on their latest trailing twelve-month net income, while ensuring that they had a strong market capitalization at the time of writing. Additionally, we analyzed hedge fund sentiment for these stocks, as high hedge fund interest often signals strong financial positioning and growth potential. The hedge fund data was derived from Insider Monkey’s database of Q4 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Aerial view of an open pit mine, with workers extracting minerals.
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO)
Last Year’s Net Income: $11.55 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) is a top global mining company focused on the exploration and production of minerals, crucial for industrial and energy applications. The company works across the iron ore, aluminum, copper, and minerals sectors, with a growing focus on lithium to support the energy transition. Rio Tinto has recently made key moves to grow its lithium portfolio and boost the integration of renewable energy.
To strengthen its lithium market stance, Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) acquired Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion in March 2025. This deal, which adds the Rincon lithium project, positions Rio Tinto Lithium as one of the top lithium producers worldwide. The company now aims to produce over 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. By using Arcadium’s prime assets coupled with Rio Tinto’s financial strength, the company aims for higher EBITDA and better cash flow in the future.
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) posted robust financial results despite shifting market trends. Its underlying EBITDA fell just 2% to $23.3 billion, helped by stronger performance in aluminum and copper, even as iron ore prices dropped 11%. Meanwhile, operating cash flow stayed strong, up 3% with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company spent $9.5 billion in capital, with net debt at $5.5 billion, while maintaining its 60% payout ratio for regular dividends, giving $6.5 billion to investors.
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) is setting itself up for future growth by focusing on lithium and clean energy. The company is working to boost profits while supporting global climate initiatives by growing its key mineral assets and forming green energy partnerships.
Overall, RIO ranks 1st on our list of most profitable lithium stocks to invest in. While we acknowledge the potential of RIO, our conviction lies in the belief that certain AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than RIO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
