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Is Nvidia Stock Worth $3.5 Trillion? The Math Behind the Madness

Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price has soared to unprecedented heights, fueled by the AI boom and the company’s dominant position in the GPU market. However, this meteoric rise has raised questions about its valuation. Is the future already priced into the stock, or are there still significant upside opportunities?

To justify a $3.5 trillion valuation, Nvidia would need to deliver extraordinary growth and profitability over the next several years. Let’s break down the math:

READ ALSO 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In

First, we have to take a look at NVIDIA Corporation’s outlook for the current quarter. Here is what the company said:

• Revenue is expected to be $32.5 billion, plus or minus 2%.

• GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.4% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. For the full year, gross margins are expected to be in the mid-70% range.

Nvidia’s market cap is more or less $3.5 trillion. This means investors expect NVDA to earn around $180 billion per year once it becomes a more mature company like Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) which is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 19. NVIDIA Corporation’s quarterly revenue and profits are probably around $33 billion and $18 billion respectively right now. Is it reasonable to assume that NVDA’s quarterly profit can go from $18 billion today to $45 billion in a few years and then continue to grow at the same rate that GOOGL’s quarterly profit is growing?

If NVDA manages to earn $180 billion in after-tax profits in a few years and then its profits continue to increase at around 10% annual rate, its market valuation will probably be around $3.5 trillion. That means NVDA investors will generate a total return of zero percent if NVDA satisfies the expectations embedded in its current stock price. For NVDA investors to generate a modest 10% annual return, NVDA needs to generate close to $250 billion in annual after tax profits by 2028.

While we acknowledge NVDA’s market dominance and potential as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVDA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.

AI Fire Sale: Insider Monkey’s #1 AI Stock Pick Is On A Steep Discount

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal!

The whispers are turning into roars.

Artificial intelligence isn’t science fiction anymore.

It’s the revolution reshaping every industry on the planet.

From driverless cars to medical breakthroughs, AI is on the cusp of a global explosion, and savvy investors stand to reap the rewards.

Here’s why this is the prime moment to jump on the AI bandwagon:

Exponential Growth on the Horizon: Forget linear growth – AI is poised for a hockey stick trajectory.

Imagine every sector, from healthcare to finance, infused with superhuman intelligence.

We’re talking disease prediction, hyper-personalized marketing, and automated logistics that streamline everything.

This isn’t a maybe – it’s an inevitability.

Early investors will be the ones positioned to ride the wave of this technological tsunami.

Ground Floor Opportunity: Remember the early days of the internet?

Those who saw the potential of tech giants back then are sitting pretty today.

AI is at a similar inflection point.

We’re not talking about established players – we’re talking about nimble startups with groundbreaking ideas and the potential to become the next Google or Amazon.

This is your chance to get in before the rockets take off!

Disruption is the New Name of the Game: Let’s face it, complacency breeds stagnation.

AI is the ultimate disruptor, and it’s shaking the foundations of traditional industries.

The companies that embrace AI will thrive, while the dinosaurs clinging to outdated methods will be left in the dust.

As an investor, you want to be on the side of the winners, and AI is the winning ticket.

The Talent Pool is Overflowing: The world’s brightest minds are flocking to AI.

From computer scientists to mathematicians, the next generation of innovators is pouring its energy into this field.

This influx of talent guarantees a constant stream of groundbreaking ideas and rapid advancements.

By investing in AI, you’re essentially backing the future.

The future is powered by artificial intelligence, and the time to invest is NOW.

Don’t be a spectator in this technological revolution.

Dive into the AI gold rush and watch your portfolio soar alongside the brightest minds of our generation.

This isn’t just about making money – it’s about being part of the future.

So, buckle up and get ready for the ride of your investment life!

Act Now and Unlock a Potential 10,000% Return: This AI Stock is a Diamond in the Rough (But Our Help is Key!)

The AI revolution is upon us, and savvy investors stand to make a fortune.

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Our research team has identified a hidden gem – an AI company with cutting-edge technology, massive potential, and a current stock price that screams opportunity.

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A New Dawn is Coming to U.S. Stocks

I work for one of the largest independent financial publishers in the world – representing over 1 million people in 148 countries.

We’re independently funding today’s broadcast to address something on the mind of every investor in America right now…

Should I put my money in Artificial Intelligence?

Here to answer that for us… and give away his No. 1 free AI recommendation… is 50-year Wall Street titan, Marc Chaikin.

Marc’s been a trader, stockbroker, and analyst. He was the head of the options department at a major brokerage firm and is a sought-after expert for CNBC, Fox Business, Barron’s, and Yahoo! Finance…

But what Marc’s most known for is his award-winning stock-rating system. Which determines whether a stock could shoot sky-high in the next three to six months… or come crashing down.

That’s why Marc’s work appears in every Bloomberg and Reuters terminal on the planet…

And is still used by hundreds of banks, hedge funds, and brokerages to track the billions of dollars flowing in and out of stocks each day.

He’s used this system to survive nine bear markets… create three new indices for the Nasdaq… and even predict the brutal bear market of 2022, 90 days in advance.

Click to continue reading…