We recently published a list of Top 12 Luxury Stocks According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) stands against other luxury stocks according to hedge funds.
The Luxury Goods Market and Consumer Behavior
According to a report by Mordor Intelligence, the luxury goods market has a size of $103.10 billion as of 2024. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.07% and reach $145.08 billion by 2029. Similarly, a study by Global Market Insights published on Yahoo! Finance shows that the luxury packaging market was valued at $17.2 billion in 2023. It is also anticipated to grow and reach $25.8 billion by the end of 2032.
North America’s demand for luxury products is significantly high, primarily due to the region’s high disposable incomes. This is especially significant in the ongoing holiday shopping season in the US. On December 17, Simeon Siegel, BMO Capital Markets senior analyst for retail and e-commerce, appeared on CNBC to discuss the state of the consumer in the current holiday shopping season. He said that the US consumer is overly resilient. In the current scenario, the market is seeing winners grow and laggers fall behind, which is how it should be. This trend goes opposite to market dynamics in COVID-19 when every company grew. Siegel was further of the view that the consumers are still spending. For better and for worse, consumers are scared of not having something under the Christmas tree this year.
On December 10, CNBC’s Steve Liesman appeared on ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the CNBC NRF Retail Monitor. Numbers from the Monitor corroborated Siegel’s claim and showed healthy consumer spending in November despite a shorter holiday shopping season in 2024. Non-store retailers showed a 21.5% year-over-year growth, reflecting these positive trends. Since this holiday shopping season came with lower gas prices and a deflation in the prices of goods overall, consumers had more discretionary dollars in their pockets and paid somewhat less compared to a year ago. Since luxury items fall in the category of discretionary items, these trends show positive stimulus for the industry.
We discussed consumer behavior in the ongoing holiday shopping season in a recently published article on the 7 best department store stocks to buy now. Here is an excerpt from the article:
“The holiday shopping season is in full swing in the United States. On December 2, Jessica Moulton, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, appeared on CNBC to discuss Black Friday spending and its effects on consumer sentiment. She said that while 2024 was a challenging year for retailers, the numbers rolling in from the holiday season seem promising. High hopes were especially placed on Black Friday sales, and while the numbers aren’t all in, they look pretty good. This trend holds particularly true online, where sales seem to be up by 15% or so compared to last year in many markets. According to CNBC, the total Black Friday e-commerce spending was around $10.8 billion. However, Moulton said that footfall in stores wasn’t so good, and continued to be flat year-over-year.
She said the trends in the sector are changing, with around 75% of shopping journeys starting online at the outset. Although some of them end up with consumers paying visits to the brick-and-mortar stores, much of the shopping journeys end with sales happening online. Furthermore, the retail sector is showing consumer behavior that tends to undertake a multiple retailer journey these days. If it is a bigger purchase, most consumers prefer checking out four to five retailers, either online or offline. This poses a significant change in the sector as compared to around two decades ago”.
Consumers Looking Towards Value at a Discount
On December 2, Mastercard Economics Institute chief economist Michelle Meyer appeared on CNBC to discuss industry trends and said that consumers have been geared to find value and best deals. She said that the Black Friday numbers show that consumers have been monitoring the market and gearing up to spend on the Black Friday weekend.
With inflation cooling and promotions returning, consumers are focused on finding the best deals in the market that offer value at a discount. This was one of the major motivating factors that drove considerably strong spending in e-commerce during the Black Friday weekend. Apparel, jewelry, and electronics remain the top gift sectors for the holidays, but consumers are prioritizing promotions with the greatest value instead of going ahead with brand loyalty. Meyer was of the view that consumers have the ability and the willingness to spend; they are just being savvy with their expenses by spending when promotions and deals come in.
Our Methodology
We sifted through stock screeners, online rankings, and ETFs to compile a list of 30 luxury stocks. We then selected the top 12 most popular stocks among elite hedge funds as of Q3 2024. We sourced the hedge fund sentiment data from Insider Monkey’s database. The list is sorted in ascending order of hedge fund sentiment.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 75
Nike, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) designs, markets, and distributes luxury athletic footwear, accessories, equipment, and services for sports and fitness activities. Its operating segments span EMEA, Greater China, APLA, and North America. The company also designs products specifically for the Converse and Jordan brands. Several of its products are valued at thousands of dollars. Nike, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) is considered one of the top luxury fashion brands, and has a market cap of $113.75 billion.
Nike, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported a decline of 8% in its revenues on a reported basis and a 9% decline on a currency-neutral basis in fiscal Q2 2025. This decline was primarily due to the ongoing headwinds from the company’s franchise management actions. It is shifting its product portfolio by reducing the proportion of its business driven by its classic footwear franchises, including Air Jordan 1, Air Force 1, and Dunk. This caused a reduction in revenues from these franchises as the company continued to tighten its marketplace supply. These franchises decelerated faster than the company’s business in fiscal Q2 2025, at a rate greater than fiscal Q1 2025. The company is actively rebalancing product allocations to its highest traffic channel to maximize full-price realization and franchise health.
The company is driving the biggest reductions to its classic footwear franchises on NIKE Direct, which fell 14% with NIKE Digital declining 21% and NIKE Stores declining 2%. However, the company also saw momentum build with positive physical and digital traffic. Black Friday week proved to be the largest demand week ever on NIKE Digital with sales increasing by double-digits. Similarly, 11/11 sales exceeded company plans in Greater China. Fiscal Q2 2025 thus reflected progress in key areas, with the company gaining consumer support.
ClearBridge Large Cap Growth Strategy stated the following regarding NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Other moves during the quarter included sales of United Parcel Service (UPS) and NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE). Nike has become overly reliant on key platforms, like Jordan, for revenue growth while innovation in areas like running has lagged. Nike could face continued revenue and profit pressure as it invests to re-invigorate innovation and re-position the business back toward wholesale outlets. As such, we are seeking out better ways to participate in the global consumer recovery in companies where earnings estimates have already reset.”
Overall, NKE ranks first on our list of luxury stocks according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of luxury stocks, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NKE but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
