We recently published a list of 13 Best Canadian Penny Stocks to Invest in Now In this article, we are going to take a look at where New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD) stands against other best Canadian penny stocks to invest in now.
We define penny stocks as shares trading under $5.00, which usually fall into the small cap category. As illustrated by the performance of thematic ETFs, the small cap factor, which performed well historically, fell out of favor sometime in the mid-2010s and has kept underperforming ever since. The 2023-2024 period brought even stronger underperformance of penny stocks, as the proliferation of the AI trend created disproportionate opportunities across the market, favoring only a handful of large capitalization big tech names. This was an important factor in explaining the difference in cross-country stock market returns as well – for example, the Canadian stock market has largely moved in sync or even occasionally outperformed the US market during the first decade of the century, until a noticeable decoupling took place in the early 2010s. Besides lagging on productivity improvement and different monetary policies, the size factor clearly played a role, as Canada lacks big tech players to capitalize on the rapid technological advancements that took place during the 2010s.
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As a result, both the Canadian and small-size factors have found themselves at multi-year lows relative to the US stock market at the end of calendar 2024. While many investors make reactive decisions and avoid stocks with historical underperformance, the smart way to make money is to often take contrarian bets based on forward-looking signals that may suggest a reversal in the previous tendencies. The main questions to answer in this article are the following: will the small cap factor and Canada stocks become favored again and able to outperform their large cap and US counterparts?
When discussing the small factor, we get to see that its recent 2023-2024 underperformance was accelerated by rising stock market concentration to record levels. External data suggests that the 2024 US stock market concentration, as measured by the share of the top 10 largest companies in the total market, was at a record 38%, significantly above the historical average of around 24%. This means that most of the stock market returns were driven by a handful of companies favored by AI-related FOMO which overstretched their market valuations. In a scenario where large caps perform well, the small caps fall out of favor automatically, by setup.
History shows, however, that concentration tends to revert to the mean – this is already happening in 2025 as the Magnificent 7 ETF, which includes the largest big tech stocks, has significantly underperformed the broad market, decreasing its concentration. Furthermore, the small cap factor tends to perform well when the economy is growing, interest rates are low and capital moves freely to riskier assets – while we aren’t there yet, the stock market is a forward-looking animal that tends to anticipate economic developments 6-12 months ahead. We believe small caps and particularly penny stocks may start performing well in anticipation of lower interest rates and better economic conditions in 2026 and beyond, past the current tariff turmoil and other uncertainties induced by rapid policy changes brought by the new US administration.
There are reasons to expect an improvement in the performance of Canadian stocks relative to the US market. First, the Trump Tariff Turmoil has much worse potential implications for the US than it does for Canada – the US has put its entire export/import base at risk of retaliation, while Canada only risks tariffs for its US exports (and likely at a lower overall tariff rate). Second, the breaking of economic and ideological ties with the new US administration could lead to an overall mobilization of the Canadian people and political class, and drive several positive developments: (1) substitution of US consumer brands with local Canadian brands; (2) accelerating investments into the mining/energy infrastructure and pipelines to create alternative paths and markets for the main Canadian product, which is commodities. Both (1) and (2) would have positive implications for the entire Canadian stock market and economy.
The main takeaway for readers is that combining the small size factor with the Canadian factor could lead to substantial outperformance relative to the US market which witnesses heightened uncertainty and negative returns year-to-date. In such a scenario, Canadian penny stocks appear the ideal securities to pick for a bet on both factors, which would be contrarian to the trends we witnessed in the last 10 years.
Our Methodology
To compile our list of best Canadian penny stocks we use a stock screener to filter for Canadian companies trading in the US with a stock price below $5.00. Then we compared the list with our proprietary Q4 2024 database of hedge funds’ ownership and included in the article the top 13 stocks with the largest number of hedge funds owning the stock, ranked in ascending order.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Aerial view of an open mine with large cranes and excavators working on the surface.
New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD)
Closing Stock Price as of April 17th: $3.64
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 26
New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD) is a mining company with two primary gold operations in Canada: the Rainy River Mine in Ontario and the New Afton Mine in British Columbia. The Rainy River is an open-pit gold-silver mine that has recently extended its mine life to 2028, with processing expected to continue until 2029 due to optimized pit designs and increased underground reserves.
New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD) delivered strong operational performance in 2024, producing nearly 300,000 ounces of gold and 54 million pounds of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,239 per ounce, beating the low end of their cost guidance. The company generated significant cash flow from operations of over $390 million and free cash flow of $85 million, while successfully achieving key project milestones, including commercial production at C-Zone field and commissioning of crusher systems at New Afton, as well as mining first development ore from Rainy River’s underground Main Zone. The company’s stock price closed at $3.64 per share during the most recent trading day; its substantial progress in its key fields makes NGD one of the best penny stocks on our list.
New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD) projects substantial growth over the next three years, with gold production expected to increase 30% to reach 410,000 ounces by 2027, while copper production is forecasted to grow 90% to 405 million pounds. At current consensus commodity prices, NGD expects to generate over $1.7 billion in free cash flow over the next three years, with potential to exceed $2 billion at spot prices, representing over 80% of their market capitalization. This growth trajectory is supported by mine life extensions at both assets and positions the company for significant value creation through increasing production and robust free cash flow generation in a strong commodity cycle.
Overall, NGD ranks 5th on our list of best Canadian penny stocks to invest in now. While we acknowledge the potential of NGD to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NGD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.