We recently published a list of the Top 10 Overbought AI Stocks in 2024. Since Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) ranks 9th on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
The second half of 2024 is here and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve remain elusive, with warnings about valuations and AI-led market hype growing louder. A number of notable Wall Street analysts have recently warned that the markets remains more concentrated than ever where just a few stocks account for most of the gains, thanks to their dominance in the AI industry. Many also believe the market is up for a correction as it has entered the overbought territory. Financial services company BTIG recently said in a report that the world’s fifth-largest exchange-traded fund by assets under management (AUM), QQQ Trust Series 1, now trades “well into” overbought territory based on its Relative Strength Index technical indicator. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index and it’s not surprising to see the ETF showing signs of being overbought as more and more investors pile into mega-cap tech stocks in order to ride the AI bandwagon.
For this article we scanned the holdings of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF and picked top technology holdings of the fund with higher Relative Strength Index (RSI) values. Usually, an RSI value of 60 and above shows a stock is overbought. We have also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors with these stocks. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 107
Netflix Inc’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) 14-day RSI value is 70, entering the overbought territory. The stock is a key part of the QQQ ETF, which has entered the overbought territory according to BTIG.
However, there are some analysts who are recommending NFLX in the current environment.
Barclays recommends Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) as a stock to offset risks in the concentrated market where most of the gains are coming from AI stocks. Barclays isn’t alone. Evercore ISI recently said in a note that Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is in “the strongest position financially, fundamentally and competitively that we have ever seen.” Evercore reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock and increased its price target to $700 from $650.
Sensing major threats amid rising competition in the market from Disney Plus, Peacock (CMCSA), Max. Amazon and YouTube, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) has fired all engines and is using a multi-pronged approach to thrive. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is expanding into emerging markets, aggressively focusing on user engagement and tapping into advertisement and gaming. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is also expanding into NFL games and WWE. Netflix’s ad-tier now has 40 million global monthly active users, up from 23 million in January.
Thanks to its aggressive focus on expansion, Netflix Inc’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) revenue stream has become extremely diversified, which can protect it from the headwinds at home. In 2023, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) raked in $14.9 billion revenue from US and Canada combined, while revenue from the EMEA region jumped 8% to $10.6 billion. Latin America and Asia-Pacific revenue came in at $4.4 billion and $3.8 billion.
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) added a whopping 9.3 million subscribers in the first quarter alone, a sign that its strategies are working. For context, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) had added 1.8 million subscribers in the prior-year quarter. The subscriber growth is expected to continue as Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) focuses on user stratification and new content. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is targeting original content spending of $17 billion by 2024.
RiverPark Large Growth Fund stated the following regarding Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX): NFLX was a top contributor in 1Q24 following strong fourth quarter earnings and 2024 guidance driven by better-than-expected subscriber adds (+13.1 million versus estimates of +8.9 million). The company’s subscriber growth continued to accelerate following the company’s crack down on password sharing and the rollout of the lower cost, advertising supported subscriber offering known as the Ad Tier. ARPU came in below expectations, but recently announced price increases in the US, UK and France showed signs of moving ARPU higher. NFLX guided 2024 operating margins to 24%, ahead of prior guidance of 22-23%, and guided to 2024 free cash flow of $6 billion.
The recent re-acceleration of subscriber growth, plus price increases on premium memberships and a stabilization of content investments, should position the company for low double digit annual revenue growth over the next few years while driving improved operating margin to more than 25%. We also believe that the stabilization of content spend should allow the company to continue to scale its FCF.”
Overall, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) ranks 9th on Insider Monkey’s list titled Top 10 Overbought AI Stocks in 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
