We recently published a list of Billionaire Ken Fisher’s 10 Favorite AI Stocks for the Rest of 2024. Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) ranks 1st on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Billionaire Ken Fisher regularly shares his investing wisdom on his YouTube channel, sharing market insights and lessons he’s learned over the decades. Commenting about the Fed’s rate cut, Fisher recently advised investors not to focus on what the central bank is doing and instead pay attention to long-term investing.
“The fact is, and I’ve said this for a long time, I won’t live forever, but I hope to live a long time and keep saying it: central bankers are crazy. Throughout my life, central banks have operated on flawed ideas and groupthink, which is an inefficient way to manage markets.”
Fisher gave an example of how you could end up losing money following the herd mentality when it comes to central bank moves.
“If you had followed the common belief that when the Fed and other central banks hike rates, you should get out of stocks, that would have worked for a couple of months in 2022. By the middle of the summer of 2022, during the height of rate hikes, you would have been on the wrong side of the market. From June 2022 onward, as the Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points nearly every month, the market was just a few months away from rising, leading to the bull market we’re in now, in 2024.
The basic belief that central bank hikes are bad for stocks was wrong from the start because it was already priced in. As soon as central bank hikes were visible, the market had already accounted for them. We saw a bull market begin in October 2022, which has continued despite repeated rate hikes.”
For this article, we scanned Ken Fisher’s hedge fund’s Q2 holdings and picked its top AI investments. We have analyzed the AI-related growth catalysts for each stock. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Ken Fisher of Fisher Asset Management
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Billionaire Ken Fisher’s Stake: $12,187,315,624
Some believe OpenAI was the only key edge Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) had in the AI race and it’s quickly fading away.
DA Davidson recently downgraded the stock, with analyst Gil Luria saying the company’s advantages in the cloud and code generation sectors have diminished, making it difficult for Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) to maintain its previous performance. He highlighted that Amazon Web Services is now nearly matching Azure in cloud growth, while Google Cloud is also gaining momentum.
Luria downgraded Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) from Buy to Neutral, maintaining a $475 price target. He pointed out that Amazon and Google have made significant strides in integrating custom silicon into their data centers, putting Microsoft at a disadvantage. This reliance on NVIDIA (NVDA) for technology means Microsoft is effectively transferring wealth from its shareholders to NVIDIA’s, according to Luria.
Following a year of margin expansion, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is now projecting a decline in operating margins due to increased data center capital expenditures rising from 12% to 21% of revenue. This increase outpaces that of Amazon and Google, largely due to Microsoft’s dependence on NVIDIA.
Luria said that if Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to overinvest at the current rate, margins could drop by at least 1 percentage point cumulatively, potentially necessitating layoffs of around 10,000 employees each year to maintain margins.
The analyst also thinks Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) has lost much of its edge with GitHub Copilot, as Amazon and GitLab (GTLB) have caught up in capabilities.
The concerns voiced by the analyst are not unfounded. Microsoft is also losing its edge in open-source models as enterprises shift toward cost-effective, transparent open-source solutions like Meta’s Llama 3.1.
Baron Opportunity Fund stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is the world’s largest software and cloud computing company. Microsoft was traditionally known for its Windows and Office products, but over the last five years it has built a $135 billion run-rate cloud business, including its Azure cloud infrastructure service and its Office 365 and Dynamics 365 cloud-delivered applications. The stock contributed to performance because of continued strong operating results and investor enthusiasm regarding Microsoft’s leadership across the secular megatrends of AI and cloud computing. Recent business momentum continued to show evidence of the strength and attractiveness of Microsoft’s product portfolio among its customer set: (1) Azure OpenAI – its suite of AI services – is now used by 65% of the Fortune 100 and contributed 7% of Azure revenue (an annualized run rate of $5.2 billion); (2) GitHub Copilot – its AI code writing service – is bending the productivity curve for developers (reports of 40%- plus improvements in developer efficiency) and now has 1.8 million paid subscribers, with growth accelerating to over 35% quarter-over-quarter; and (3) Copilot Studio – its AI application service that makes it easier for anyone to build an application, automate a workflow, or create a Copilot using natural language. 30,000 organizations across every industry have used Copilot Studio to customize Copilot for Microsoft 365 or build their own, up 175% quarter-over-quarter. In the March quarter, Microsoft again reported better-than-expected financial results, highlighted by Microsoft Cloud growing 23% year-over-year, with the fastest commercial bookings in six quarters, and Azure accelerating to 31% constant currency growth, up from 28% in the previous quarter. June quarter guidance came in-line with consensus, but the company provided higher guidance for the most important segment, Intelligent Cloud, on the back of continued strong trends across Azure and Azure OpenAI. We remain confident that Microsoft is one of the best-positioned companies across the overlapping software, cloud computing, and AI landscapes.”
Overall, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) ranks 1st on Insider Monkey’s list titled Billionaire Ken Fisher’s 10 Favorite AI Stocks for the Rest of 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) , our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MSFT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.