We recently compiled a list of the 12 Most Undervalued Travel Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) stands against the other undervalued travel stocks.
The travel industry has rapidly evolved, with the leading businesses witnessing healthy growth and strong profit margins. The shift in source markets and destinations, increased demand for experiential and luxury travel, together with innovative business strategies continue to dramatically alter the industry landscape. Much of the travel demand is close to home. As per McKinsey, globally, domestic travel should grow ~3% annually, touching 19 billion lodging nights per year by 2030.
This is particularly true for the US, the world’s largest travel market. Around 68% of trips initiated in the US are to destinations within the country. Despite inflation and record costs weighing over Americans’ travel budgets, most of them will continue to travel. Most American consumers rank travel, domestic and international, as their “highest-priority” areas when it comes to discretionary spending.
Rise of Experiential Travel
Travel experts believe that there has been a growing focus on experiences as compared to material goods.
The demand for experiential travel should continue to rise heading into 2025 because consumers are prioritizing unique and memorable encounters over traditional travel consumption. This shift cannot be tagged as a passing trend, but it’s transforming the global tourism landscape. McKinsey believes that the experiential travel market should exceed ~$3 trillion by 2025. The growth should primarily be seen off the back of an increasing share of consumer spending on experiences like entertainment, adventure travel, and personalized excursions.
WNS believes that ~87% of the people globally agree that having a trip booked in the future provides them something to look forward to. With the pent-up demand unleashing, the upcoming 5 years are expected to see elevated expectations among travelers as they plan to make up for the lost time. Despite a bumpy ride for 4 years, the international tourist arrivals should touch pre-pandemic levels in 2024. However, inflationary concerns, climate change, and geopolitical tensions might keep the sector in a difficult spot.
Some countries and governments have done a better job in minimizing such risks and maximizing travel and tourism potential as per the Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024, published last month by the World Economic Forum.
What Are the Trends Shaping for Travel Sector?
As per the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), international tourism should fully recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2024. UNWTO expects that there is still a significant headroom for recovery across Asia. Chinese outbound and inbound tourism should ramp up in 2024 as a result of visa facilitation and improved air capacity.
Total international arrivals are expected to significantly increase over the upcoming 2 years and will surpass pre-pandemic 2019 visitation in 2025 (as per the International Trade Administration). Total international arrivals should see an increase of 16.8% to 77.7 million in 2024, 9.7% to 85.2 million in 2025, and an increase of 7.0% to 91.1 million in 2026.
Since the bulk of travel spending remains close to home, McKinsey mentioned that 75% of travel spend is domestic. The US has been tagged as the world’s largest domestic travel market, with China well-placed to overtake it in the coming years. New markets like India, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe are the growing sources of outbound tourism. The travel spending of Indians should grow by 9% per year between now and 2030, with annual growth projections for Southeast Asians and Eastern Europeans coming at ~7% for both. Just like the launch of a jet engine significantly reduced travel times, AI continues to change the fundamentals of the travel industry.
As per estimates by McKinsey Digital, companies that holistically address digital and analytics opportunities can experience an earnings improvement of up to ~25%.
Our methodology
To list the 12 Most Undervalued Travel Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds, we used a Finviz screener to filter the stocks catering to the relevant industries and also looked into travel ETFs and online rankings. We gathered a list of 20 stocks and then narrowed our list to stocks that were trading at less than the forward earnings multiple of ~22.56x (since the broader market trades at ~22.56x). Finally, we ranked the stocks in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
A traveler having a delicious meal at a local restaurant with a view of the city.
Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE)
Forward P/E Ratio as of 13 September: 8.70x
Number of Hedge Funds: 56
Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) provides online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. It provides a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services.
In addition to new travel trends, Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) should continue to benefit from the remote working trend. Wall Street analysts believe that worker flexibility will increase the long-term travel demand. The company’s strong user base, on the back of its leading online travel network, should act as a key advantage that should persist over the next decade, despite challenges from supplier consolidation in the US.
Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE)’s ongoing push for the expansion of its international presence should further strengthen the network advantage over time. Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) continues to leverage its AI capabilities, which should also act as a growth enabler.
It embraced the transformative power of AI, with the introduction of more than 40 new AI-powered products and features. These have been designed to offer a more personalized experience for travellers.
The company’s 2Q 2024 results came in at the high end of its expectations as gross bookings and revenue grew 6%. It saw sequential improvement in its consumer brands. Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE)’s merchant revenue increased in 2Q 2024 on a YoY basis mainly because of an increase in merchant hotel revenue. The company’s revenues from “advertising, media, and other” increased as a result of an increase in Expedia Media Solutions’ advertising revenue.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald started coverage on the shares of Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) on 5th September. They gave a “Neutral” rating and a price target of $130.00. At the end of 2Q 2024, 56 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database held stakes in Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE).
Artisan Partners, an investment management company, released its second quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) shares declined 18% during the quarter after reducing its full-year outlook. It lowered its revenue growth forecast to mid- to high-single digits for 2024 and said margins will stay flat. On the surface, a business growing in the high-single digits while maintaining profitability isn’t bad. The issue is the company just completed a major restructuring that was supposed to result in accelerated revenue growth and significant margin expansion. Neither is happening. The company continues to underperform the industry and its peers. Importantly, management will not share with us the important metrics and disclosures that might give us the ability to understand why. It continues to just tell us that improvement is coming. That is not enough for us, and we have lost confidence that the changes will have the intended impact on the company’s financial performance. As a result, we decided to exit the investment at a modest profit.”
Overall EXPE ranks 3rd on our list of the most undervalued travel stocks to buy according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of EXPE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that’s more promising than the stocks on our list, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
