We recently compiled a list of the 8 Fastest Growing Auto Stocks to Invest in Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) stands against the other auto stocks.
Auto Sector Outlook 2025
On December 20, 2024, S&P Global released its auto sales forecast for 2025. The report forecasts a slight decrease in global light vehicle production for 2025, estimating a 0.4% decline to 88.7 million units. Moreover, the production is also expected to fall slightly by 1.6%, with production levels finishing at 89.1 million units. The report predicts this decline to be across all regions except mainland China and South America. The primary factor influencing the 2025 outlook is the anticipated implementation of a widespread tariff regime by the incoming US administration, which includes a universal 10% tariff on all goods entering the US and a 30% tariff on goods from mainland China. You can read more about it in our article titled, 11 Best Undervalued Stocks to Invest in Now.
While elaborating on the expectations from a regional point of view, the report highlights stable production levels in Mainland China for 2025. The production level is anticipated to rise slightly by 0.1% to 29.6 million units. This will be driven by strong domestic demand for New Energy Vehicles and robust exports, though tempered by EU import tariffs on Chinese-made BEVs. On the other hand, in North America, the overall production is set to decrease by 2.4% to 15.1 million units. The report highlights that the US administration’s policies are expected to influence overall demand and challenge vehicle mix assumptions. Deregulation could provide tailwinds for the North American auto industry later in the administration’s second term.
Production in Europe is expected to reach 16.6 million units in 2025, a 2.6% decrease from the estimated 17.0 million in 2024. This reflects adjustments in the propulsion mix in preparation for the 2025 EU emissions rules, along with new tariffs associated with the Trump administration, which particularly impacts premium vehicles.
Despite concerns around electrification, the report expects electric vehicles to remain a significant growth sector. Global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles are projected to reach 15.1 million units in 2025, indicating a 30% increase compared to 2024 and accounting for an estimated 16.7% of global light vehicle sales. Moreover, in 2024 an estimated 11.6 million BEVs were sold globally, representing a 13.2% market share.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of 8 fastest growing auto stocks to invest in now, we used the year-over-year sales growth and 3-year sales growth as our primary indicators. Using the Finviz stock screener, we looked for auto manufacturers, auto parts, and auto and truck dealership companies that have a year-over-year sales growth of more than 15%, followed by a positive 3-year sales growth. We cross checked these figures from Seeking Alpha and ranked the eligible stocks in ascending order of the number of hedge fund holders sourced from Insider Monkey’s Q4 2024 database.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
A customer buying a used car with the help of a finance specialist.
Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA)
Year-Over-Year Sales Growth: 26.94%
3-Year Sales Growth: 2.19%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 84
Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) operates an online platform that makes it easier for people to buy and sell used cars. It allows users to research cars, get financing, and arrange delivery or pickup. On March 7, Bank of America Securities analyst Mike McGovern maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $270.
McGovern believes Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is well-positioned for sustained long-term growth in the used car market, which he estimates to be over $800 billion. The analyst noted that the company is expected to improve its unit economics and leverage as growth accelerates. Moreover, he expects the company’s 2025 revenue to be $15.45 billion and EBITDA of $1.50 billion, which is slightly above estimates.
During the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024, Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) achieved record revenue of $13.67 billion for 2024, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the previous year. It also reported a net income of $404 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.38 billion, with a 10.1% margin. Notably, management noted the company sold 416,348 retail units in 2024, a 33% increase from the previous year, and emphasized that it did this with only 1% of the market. It is the fastest-growing auto stock to invest in now.
Recurve Capital stated the following regarding Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“One year is too short a time frame to evaluate anything and we will never be perfect, but overall, nailing Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) mattered much more than anything else.
We assess our portfolio management performance by looking at the breadth of participation across the portfolio and by comparing our actual results to two parallel scenarios: (1) our performance relative to an equal-weight portfolio of the same positions, and (2) our performance relative to the actual portfolio assuming no further trading over the evaluation period. Encouragingly, our actual performance has been better than both alternate scenarios across substantially all evaluation periods. The primary exception is at the end of 2022, when an equal-weight portfolio would have produced better forward returns by having significantly more exposure to Carvana at its record-low prices. These analyses give me comfort that we add value through our active management and optimization of the portfolio.
We care most about portfolio-level returns which largely depend on slugging percentages, but we also know that having a consistent batting average is important. As shown in the chart below, the median position in our portfolio returned +35% in 2024 on a total return basis (including dividends), below our actual performance but nicely above the returns for the major indices. Carvana’s excellent performance in 2024 pulled our actual performance well above the median, but that was our intention given our large position size. We had healthy contributions across the portfolio, but we also benefited from great slugging percentages in 2023 and 2024…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall CVNA ranks 1st on our list of the fastest growing auto stocks to invest in now. While we acknowledge the potential of CVNA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CVNA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
