We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Performing Stocks in 2024. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) stands against the other great-performing stocks.
Dow Breaks Record
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently made headlines by closing above the 42,000 mark for the first time, a significant milestone that reflects a surge in investor confidence following a substantial interest rate cut by the Fed. This momentous achievement occurred on September 19, when the Dow jumped over 500 points, closing at 42,063.36. This rise was part of a broader trend in the stock market, with major indices experiencing overall gains throughout the week, largely fueled by optimism surrounding the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.5%.
On September 21, Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, while acknowledging that the market tends to keep rising, also discussed the warning signs of a melt-up, in the context of the markets’ response to the September rate cut on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’. He doubted the necessity of such a large rate cut, suggesting that the economy is currently growing at about 3% year-over-year and could potentially grow even faster. Yardeni noted that while productivity gains are expected to be more pronounced shortly, he would have preferred to see the market stabilize for a while instead of continuing its upward trajectory.
Yardeni provided his forecast for the market’s potential growth. In his base case scenario, he predicted that the Dow could reach 5,800 possibly by next week. However, he also entertained an alternative scenario where the market might exceed 6,000 before experiencing a correction. Still, he does not foresee a bear market as a recession is unlikely.
While discussing investment strategies, Yardeni highlighted that with small-cap and mid-cap stocks showing signs of improvement in valuations, there is an indication that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios beyond large-cap stocks. However, concerns remain regarding mid-cap earnings, which have not shown significant growth recently. Lower interest rates might eventually provide some uplift to these earnings.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has indicated that many more rate cuts may be necessary over the next year due to signs of weakness in the manufacturing sector. CNBC’s Rick Santelli, who was reporting on September 23, noted that while manufacturing has faced challenges, there are indications it might be recovering slightly, as evidenced by a recent production increase of 0.8%.
He referenced comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who stated that the economy is experiencing strong growth and robust consumer spending, which he believed contradicted the concerns raised by Goolsbee. Santelli pointed out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at all-time highs, suggesting that market sentiment remains positive despite underlying economic weaknesses.
Further discussing the economic landscape, he remarked on the currency markets, noting that the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since March 2022. In contrast, the euro has reached its strongest level since April 2022. This shift in currency dynamics reflects broader economic trends, with Santelli suggesting that Germany’s economic situation appears significantly weakened compared to its previous state.
On the topic of interest rates, Santelli reported that since Tuesday’s market close and following the Fed’s easing on Wednesday, two-year note yields have decreased by 3 basis points, while ten-year note yields have increased by ~9 basis points. He emphasized the importance of monitoring these changes closely as they could indicate shifting investor sentiment regarding future economic conditions.
While Santelli’s discussion underscores a complex economic environment where mixed signals from various sectors create uncertainty, the Dow continues to hover around its record highs and investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Market participants are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed policies to capture future trends. In this context, we’re here with a list of the 10 best-performing stocks in 2024.
Methodology
We used stock screeners to look for companies trading over $10 billion. We then selected the top 10 stocks with the best year-to-date performance and that were also the most popular among elite hedge funds. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of their year-to-date performance.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A customer buying a used car with the help of a finance specialist.
Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA)
Year-to-Date Performance as of September 23: 229.58%
Market Cap as of September 23: $21.61 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 61
Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is an online used car retailer, and the fastest-growing online used car dealer in the US, known for its glass tower “car vending machines”. It offers a fully online platform where customers can browse, select, finance, and purchase a used car without ever stepping foot in a dealership. It is also known for its signature “as-seen-on-TV” car vending machines, where customers can drive off the lot with their new car, making the car-buying process transparent, convenient, and hassle-free.
The company’s slowdown in retail sales growth was a strategic move to focus on more profitable sales. This strategy has resulted in a significant increase in Gross Profit Per Unit (GPU), reaching a new record of $5,500 in 2023, which is $1,000 higher than the previous record set in 2021. While the company may have expanded too rapidly in the past, this strategic shift has proven effective in improving profitability.
Overall, it generated $3.41 billion in Q2 2024 revenue, recording a 14.89% year-over-year improvement, primarily impacted by industry-wide declines in vehicle average selling prices. Despite prioritizing unit economics and profitability, retail unit sales increased by 33%. The operational teams successfully increased production capacity to improve customer selection, but inventory levels remain below target due to ongoing high demand.
The company cut over $1.1 billion in annualized Selling, General, and Administrative expenses in 2024 and restructured its debt to save $430 million in annual interest.
In the second quarter, it bought back $250 million of its 2028 senior secured notes and raised $350 million in new equity. These efforts contributed to a strong first-quarter performance, making it a promising investment opportunity.
Kerrisdale Capital made the following comment about Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) in the investor letter:
“We are short shares of Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA), a $4bn market cap online platform for buying and selling used cars. Originally hyped up as an innovative disruptor, Carvana is now recognized to be just a poorly run auto retailer struggling under the challenges of a severe industry downturn and the unsustainable burden of $6.5bn in debt. While many have shared concerns over Carvana’s business before, we voice ours at a time when shares have risen 165% in only a month on misguided optimism for profits that amount to little more than buffing the paint job on a totaled car.
Over its history of burning billions of dollars of investor capital to manufacture topline growth, Carvana has never generated sustainable profits or free cash flow. Even during the pandemic, when Carvana was virtually the only online option for scores of desperate car buyers willing to pay any price, the company failed to turn an annual profit. As the prospect of bankruptcy loomed, last year management began slashing costs, shrinking its operations and finessing working capital to try to generate positive free cash flow, and still failed. The company is pursuing a last-ditch attempt to sell markets on a new narrative, but ultimately, the business can’t escape the following reality: 1) whether a small local dealer or a tech-driven online platform, flipping used cars is a tough, capital-intensive business with lousy margins and, 2) any company can grow quickly and take share if run irresponsibly on costs, especially if capital markets are willing to foot the bill. Rather than representing true disruptive change, Carvana is a flawed player, armed with tools no better than the competition it seeks to disrupt and led by a management team which lacks seasoned automotive, operational experience. Carvana didn’t make money even when cars sold themselves, interest rates were low and used car prices were skyrocketing. Today, none of that is true anymore, and the company has no hope but to eventually restructure its massive debt load…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall CVNA ranks 2nd on our list of the best performing stocks in 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of CVNA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CVNA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
