We recently compiled a list of the 10 Most Undervalued Quality Stocks To Buy According To Analysts. In this article, we will look at where Axos Financial Inc. (NYSE:AX) ranks among the most undervalued quality stocks to buy according to analysts.
Are More Rate Cuts Necessary to Maintain The Current Economic Trajectory?
Despite global uncertainties, the US economy is viewed as stronger than its international counterparts. But then again, market challenges are undeniably persisting, and strategists are inclining toward one opinion or the other to help investors build a stronger portfolio for the rest of the year.
In such volatility, quality stocks with reliable earnings offer potential opportunities for risk-averse investors. Interest rates are currently high, but there is potential for significant gains if they decline. As current economic indicators support a favorable environment for growth and income generation, we covered a conversation from CNBC in our 10 Best Quality Stocks to Buy According to Analysts article, where the Global Investment Strategist at ProShares Advisors, Simeon Hyman, emphasized ‘income’ as a key focus, highlighting that fixed-income markets could provide 10-15% returns if geopolitical tensions worsen. Here’s an excerpt from that article:
“…the yield on the 10-year bond is nearly 4%, and there is potential for it to drop to 3% or lower if significant negative events occur. This scenario presents an opportunity for investors to realize gains of 10% or 15% on bonds in a tumultuous environment, a situation not seen in over a decade.
Despite the current market being down by 3.7%, which is slightly less than 4%, Hyman insisted that rounding was at play… there has been a 50-basis point cut and indications of a soft landing for the economy. A month-over-month increase of just 0.1% suggests that if one can overlook geopolitical issues, the US economy is faring better than many others globally and remains on solid economic footing.”
Richard Fisher, Jefferies’ senior advisor, joined ‘Closing Bell’ on CNBC on October 1 to discuss the Fed’s recent rate cut and what it means for the market from here. The former Dallas Fed Chair Richard Fisher shared his insights on the current state of monetary policy and the Fed’s approach to interest rate cuts, noting that he was not surprised by Chair Powell’s signals indicating smaller rate cuts are forthcoming. Fisher explained that he had been bullish since the end of 2023, despite initially predicting a recession that did not materialize. He emphasized the importance of measured cuts, stating that the Fed is looking at monetary policy with a long-term perspective, roughly 18 months out.
He highlighted the significance of recent economic data, particularly from the Atlanta Fed, which indicates strong growth above 3%. Fisher characterized the current economic environment as experiencing neither a soft landing nor a hard landing, but rather a smooth glide path. He believes that two more quarter-point cuts would be appropriate to maintain this trajectory. When discussing concerns about whether current rates are too restrictive relative to inflation, Fisher disagreed with the argument and pointed out that financial conditions remain accommodative, citing narrow spreads and strong private lending activity. He argued that with another two cuts, the Fed would not be overly restrictive.
Despite acknowledging Powell’s effective leadership, Fisher maintained that it was premature to declare victory regarding economic stabilization. He believes Powell’s term will continue until April 2026, and only then can a true assessment of success be made. Overall, Fisher’s emphasis on measured rate cuts and ongoing economic strength underscores the delicate balance policymakers must maintain in fostering growth while managing inflationary pressures.
This could have a positive impact on the stock market, especially for undervalued quality stocks. When interest rates fall, investors often shift their focus to equities as they seek higher returns. This could lead to increased demand for undervalued quality stocks, potentially driving up their prices. In that context and given Fisher’s cautious optimism, we’re here with a list of the 10 most undervalued quality stocks to buy according to analysts.
Methodology
To compile our list, we first sifted through Vanguard U.S. Quality Factor ETF holdings to find the ones with an upside potential of over 15% as of October 7, 2024. We then selected stocks with a forward P/E ratio under 15 and made a list of 10 stocks that were the most popular among elite hedge funds and that analysts were bullish on. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of their analysts’ upside potential.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Axos Financial Inc. (NYSE:AX)
Average Upside Potential: 25.87%
Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 8.64
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 25
Axos Financial Inc. (NYSE:AX) is a digital bank that offers a range of financial products and services, including personal and business banking, mortgages, and wealth management. It is known for its online-only approach, which allows it to offer competitive rates and fees. It also focuses on providing excellent customer service through its digital channels.
In FQ4 2024, the company showed strong financial performance, reporting a 20% increase in net income to ~$105 million and earnings per share of $1.80, marking a 51% year-over-year growth. Ending loan balances rose by 2.7% linked quarter and 16.9% year-over-year, reaching $19.2 billion. The overall revenue grew by 23.03% in this quarter.
Deposits increased by about $256 million, primarily from non-interest-bearing sources, contributing to a 26% growth in tangible book value per share. The net interest margin was reported at 4.65%, up 46 basis points from the previous year but down from the prior quarter due to higher excess liquidity.
The company maintained strong credit quality, with net annualized charge-offs at just 5 basis points and non-performing loans decreasing by $9 million sequentially. It continues to focus on diversifying its lending and deposit businesses, with ongoing investments in technology and operational improvements aimed at enhancing customer experience and driving future growth. These factors come together to make Axos Financial Inc. (NYSE:AX) well-positioned for success.
Gator Capital Management made the following comment about Axos Financial, Inc. (NYSE:AX) in its first quarter 2023 investor letter:
“A second but higher risk opportunity is in select regional banks. Coming into March, regional banks were already at the low end of their long-term valuation range. In March, the regional bank index declined 29%, and many well-run regional banks declined more than the index. We admit there are many new negatives for regional banks in the aftermath of the Bank Crisis. Still, we think they have become too cheap and have the potential to outperform as we get clarity on the going forward business model.
We see four new negatives for regional banks: 1) uninsured deposits will decline unless deposit insurance limits are increased, 2) banks will operate with higher liquidity going forward, 3) deposit repricing is accelerating, and 4) regulatory uncertainty is high.
Despite these four new negative issues for banks, we believe regional bank stock prices have overshot to the downside. We estimate these four issues will cause a 10% decline in earnings, which is not bad compared to a 30% decline in stock prices. We believe the banks will be able to overcome some of these negatives with wider spreads on loans going forward. We believe we must focus on the best management teams that have shown the ability to grow while maintaining discipline on expenses.
Some banks we have identified include Axos Financial, Inc. (NYSE:AX), United Missouri Bank, Webster Financial, and Pinnacle Financial. These banks are strong performers and don’t have the same problems that SIVB and others had with their bond portfolios. These banks have strong deposit franchises and have posted strong loan growth for many years. We believe they will be able to balance the demands of the new banking environment and post strong results.”
Overall AX ranks 3rd on our list of the most undervalued quality stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of AX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AX but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published on Insider Monkey.
