Growth in Cigar Market: In 2009, 4.10 billion cigars were sold in the US. Currently on an annual basis there are 4.35 billion cigars sold per year, and further growth in the cigar market could benefit the John Middleton’s segment of Altria’s business (2.49% of overall business is concentrated in the cigar segment)
Growth in Wine Market: The US wine market has grown from $22.9 billion in 2009 to $25.8 billion currently, and further growth could benefit the Ste. Michelle brand and fuel overall company growth slightly (1.81% of overall business is concentrated in the wine segment)
Dividend Growth: Since implementing their dividend program in 1928, Altria has consistently raised their dividend payouts, a trend which is highly anticipated to continue well into the future
Threats:
- Competition: All the industries Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO) operates in are extremely competitive, and the competition to offer the best product for the least amount of money can lead to margin compression
- Shrinking Cigarette Market: The United States cigarette market is rapidly diminishing, with 333 billion cigarettes sold in 2008 shrinking to only 265 billion currently, and further decay in this segment, which makes up 69.63% of total business, could pose serious problems to overall business.
- Government Regulation: Increased taxes or regulation on the tobacco industry could severely cripple Altria
- Stagnant Economic Landscape: The luxuries Altria offers are rather expensive, and in a stagnant economic landscape, less Americans possess the money required to pay for Altria’s products
Competition:
Major publicly traded competitors of Altria include Reynolds American, Inc. (NYSE:RAI) Incorporated, Vector Group Ltd (NYSE:VGR) Limited, Lorillard Inc. (NYSE:LO) Incorporated, and Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) Incorporated . All companies except for Phillip Morris compete with Altria and pose major threats to the company’s success; Philip Morris operates the same brand name as Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO) internationally. Reynolds American is valued at $24.86 billion, pays out a dividend yielding 5.31%, and carries a price to earnings ratio of 16.83. Vector Group is valued at $1.34 billion, pays out a dividend yielding 10.41%, and carries a price to earnings ratio of 60.86. Lorillard is valued at $15.35 billion, pays out a dividend yielding 5.23%, and carries a price to earnings ratio of 14.20. Philip Morris is valued at $147.23 billion, pays out a dividend yielding 3.86%, and carries a price to earnings ratio of 17.61.
The Foolish Bottom Line:
Financially, Altria is a company on the brink of disaster. The company has a massive debt load and a falling revenue stream. The only thing keeping the company afloat is its rapidly expanding margins, a trend which can only continue for so long. A major advantage to the company is its massive dividend, but the company’s products are unhealthy and are becoming progressively more unpopular with Americans. All in all, while Altria’s dividend and expanding margins are very attractive, these are the only reasons to be in the company.
The article Is Altria A Smoking Investment? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Ryan Guenette.
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