We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Airline Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) stands against the other airline stocks.
We also dive deep into trends in the commercial aviation industry, especially the impact the return of international travel to pre-pandemic levels has had on the airline industry.
The coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc across the global airline industry. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), industry revenues slumped from $838 billion in 2019 to $384 billion a year later, registering a 54.1% downfall. However, the market has gradually recovered over the last few years and is on track for solid growth as international travel resumes worldwide.
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A report by UN Tourism in January this year stated that international tourism was recorded in 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, and is on track to return to levels before the coronavirus struck. The IATA anticipates global airline revenue to reach $996 billion in 2024, 19% higher than in 2019 and 1.5 times higher than the pandemic low of 2020.
The global travel recovery has been led by the Middle East, the strongest tourism market in 2023, as it welcomed 22% more travelers than it did in 2019, becoming the only region to prevail over pandemic levels. Europe reached 94% of the levels in 2019, while Africa stood at 96%. Asia Pacific has been rather slow, recovering only 65% of pre-pandemic levels as of last year.
The uptick in international travel is yielding solid returns this year. As of October 23, 2024, a major airline ETF issued by U.S. Global Investors has grown by 18.44% YTD, outperforming the broader market by 4.5%. Analysts at Forbes believe airline stocks are poised for strong growth during the second half of 2024 as fuel prices dip after long periods of price hikes. Fuel accounts for between 20-30% of airlines’ total costs. Moreover, airlines in the US are cutting down on excess domestic capacity after compressed margins during the summer season. The oversupply of seats has resulted in lower fares, and airline operators are determined to correct that. The deceleration of capacity, coupled with strong travel demand, will enhance their pricing power and improve earnings.
Hedge fund sentiment on airline stocks is also encouraging. Tony Bancroft from Gabelli Funds shared his insights on commercial aviation at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago on June 26. He noted a significant growth in aircraft orders, resulting in major aircraft manufacturers having a 12-year backlog of orders. Bancroft cited China as the primary catalyst driving robust demand.
According to the portfolio manager, the country represented 20% of all new aircraft orders as Chinese airlines strive to cater to the growing demand for travel among the middle class at home and in neighboring India. Bancroft also highlighted the rising middle class in the United States and other parts of the world that are increasing international travel, and contributing to the strength of the commercial aviation industry.
Methodology
We sampled stocks from ETFs with airline exposure and then picked the top 10 companies with the highest number of hedge funds having stakes in them. We ranked them in ascending order of hedge fund holders in each company. Data on hedge funds was sourced from Insider Monkey’s database of 912 hedge funds for the second quarter of 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A busy airport terminal with travelers passing through on their leisure travels.
Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 17
Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) is an airline holding and hospitality corporation headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company offers flight transport, car rentals, hotel bookings, and other related travel services. It owns Allegiant Air, an American airline that serves leisure traffic from underserved small and medium cities. The airline has a low-cost business model, offering reduced fares with minimal offerings while charging for add-ons during the flight.
The business model allows the company to have multiple streams of ancillary revenue, which includes charges for services beyond airfare, like food meals, seat selection, extra baggage, and more. This is one of the key strengths of Allegiant Air in helping the airline maintain profitability while keeping base ticket prices competitive.
Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) announced its quarterly results for Q2 2024 on July 31. It generated a total operating revenue of $666.3 million, of which $649.5 million was contributed by its airline operations. Consolidated net income for the quarter totaled $32.5 million. Consolidated EPS stood at $1.77, while for the airline, it was recorded at $2.24 per share, comfortably beating the company’s initial expectations.
The company attributed strong results for Allegiant Air to a higher-than-anticipated top-live revenue and improved cost performance, the latter driven by a lower-than-forecasted average fuel cost per gallon. Ancillary revenue also outperformed during the quarter and reached $75.34 per passenger, representing a 5% year-over-year increase, and driven by strength in co-brand, seat selection, and baggage.
Looking ahead, the third quarter is typically a low-performing period for Allegiant, and the challenges it has faced heading into Q3 will likely impact the financial results. The airline’s peak utilization for summer months was still 20% below 2019’s average of 9.5 hours per aircraft, noted Greg Anderson, President and Incoming CEO, in Allegiant’s Q2 earnings call. Moreover, losses at Sunseeker Resorts, the global tech outage in July, and aircraft delivery delays from Boeing are also projected to take their toll. As a result, the company forecasts a loss per share of $3 in Q3.
However, Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT)’s outlook for 2025 is encouraging. The company expects increased peak period utilization starting next year and is hopeful of a normalized aircraft delivery pattern from Boeing in 2025 and 2026. It is also working on optimizing its next-gen revenue management system Navitaire, which is estimated to yield an incremental $4 per passenger when it is functional.
Wall Street analysts have a Hold rating for the stock and expect an average appreciation of 1.2% in its share price. As of Q2 2024, 17 hedge funds among those tracked by Insider Monkey have investments in Allegiant Travel Company, making it one of the best airline stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
Overall ALGT ranks 10th on our list of the best airline stocks to buy according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of ALGT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ALGT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
