We hate to say this but, we told you so. On February 27th we published an article with the title Recession is Imminent: We Need A Travel Ban NOW and predicted a US recession when the S&P 500 Index was trading at the 3150 level. We also told you to short the market and buy long-term Treasury bonds. Our article also called for a total international travel ban. While we were warning you, President Trump minimized the threat and failed to act promptly. As a result of his inaction, we will now experience a deeper recession (see why hell is coming).
In these volatile markets we scrutinize hedge fund filings to get a reading on which direction each stock might be going. Our extensive research has shown that imitating the smart money can generate significant returns for retail investors, which is why we track nearly 835 active prominent money managers and analyze their quarterly 13F filings. The stocks that are heavily bought by hedge funds historically outperformed the market, though there is no shortage of high profile failures like hedge funds’ 2018 losses in Facebook and Apple. Let’s take a closer look at what the funds we track think about Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK) in this article.
Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK) was in 15 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019. ALLK has experienced a decrease in enthusiasm from smart money recently. There were 17 hedge funds in our database with ALLK positions at the end of the previous quarter. Our calculations also showed that ALLK isn’t among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (click for Q4 rankings and see the video at the end of this article for Q3 rankings).
In the financial world there are a large number of tools investors have at their disposal to grade stocks. A pair of the most under-the-radar tools are hedge fund and insider trading indicators. We have shown that, historically, those who follow the top picks of the best fund managers can outperform the broader indices by a solid amount. Insider Monkey’s monthly stock picks returned 72.9% since March 2017 and outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by more than 41 percentage points. Our short strategy outperformed the S&P 500 short ETFs by 20 percentage points annually (see the details here). That’s why we believe hedge fund sentiment is a useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.
Felix Baker of Baker Bros.
We leave no stone unturned when looking for the next great investment idea. For example we recently identified a stock that trades 25% below the net cash on its balance sheet. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences, and go through short-term trade recommendations like this one. We even check out the recommendations of services with hard to believe track records. Our best call in 2020 was shorting the market when S&P 500 was trading at 3150 after realizing the coronavirus pandemic’s significance before most investors. With all of this in mind let’s take a peek at the latest hedge fund action regarding Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK).
How have hedgies been trading Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK)?
Heading into the first quarter of 2020, a total of 15 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of -12% from the third quarter of 2019. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards ALLK over the last 18 quarters. With the smart money’s positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists a few key hedge fund managers who were boosting their holdings meaningfully (or already accumulated large positions).
Among these funds, Redmile Group held the most valuable stake in Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK), which was worth $289.3 million at the end of the third quarter. On the second spot was Baker Bros. Advisors which amassed $32.4 million worth of shares. Cormorant Asset Management, Samsara BioCapital, and Rock Springs Capital Management were also very fond of the stock, becoming one of the largest hedge fund holders of the company. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Samsara BioCapital allocated the biggest weight to Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK), around 11.08% of its 13F portfolio. Redmile Group is also relatively very bullish on the stock, dishing out 6.92 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to ALLK.
Since Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK) has witnessed declining sentiment from hedge fund managers, it’s easy to see that there was a specific group of fund managers that slashed their positions entirely last quarter. At the top of the heap, Jeffrey Jay and David Kroin’s Great Point Partners dropped the biggest position of the 750 funds followed by Insider Monkey, totaling about $9.8 million in stock, and D. E. Shaw’s D E Shaw was right behind this move, as the fund cut about $6.7 million worth. These moves are interesting, as aggregate hedge fund interest was cut by 2 funds last quarter.
Let’s check out hedge fund activity in other stocks – not necessarily in the same industry as Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK) but similarly valued. We will take a look at Eldorado Resorts Inc (NASDAQ:ERI), Companhia Paranaense de Energia (NYSE:ELP), Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ:VLY), and Ardagh Group S.A. (NYSE:ARD). This group of stocks’ market values are closest to ALLK’s market value.
| Ticker | No of HFs with positions | Total Value of HF Positions (x1000) | Change in HF Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERI | 49 | 1337579 | 0 |
| ELP | 7 | 77363 | -1 |
| VLY | 24 | 61415 | 8 |
| ARD | 9 | 81330 | -3 |
| Average | 22.25 | 389422 | 1 |
View table here if you experience formatting issues.
As you can see these stocks had an average of 22.25 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $389 million. That figure was $414 million in ALLK’s case. Eldorado Resorts Inc (NASDAQ:ERI) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Companhia Paranaense de Energia (NYSE:ELP) is the least popular one with only 7 bullish hedge fund positions. Allakos Inc. (NASDAQ:ALLK) is not the least popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still below average. This is a slightly negative signal and we’d rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed that top 20 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 41.3% in 2019 and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 10.1 percentage points. These stocks lost 17.4% in 2020 through March 25th but beat the market by 5.5 percentage points. Unfortunately ALLK wasn’t nearly as popular as these 20 stocks (hedge fund sentiment was quite bearish); ALLK investors were disappointed as the stock returned -46.6% during the same time period and underperformed the market. If you are interested in investing in large cap stocks with huge upside potential, you should check out the top 20 most popular stocks among hedge funds as most of these stocks already outperformed the market in Q1.
Video: Click the image to watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
