We recently compiled a list of the 7 Cheap Beginner Stocks to Invest In. In this article, we will look at where Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) ranks among the cheap beginner stocks to invest in.
Does Fed Rate Cut Translate to a Higher Consumer Borrowing Trend?
The Federal Reserve has approved the interest rate cut of 50 basis points, which at least for the time being is turning out to be good for the stock market. The interest rate cut also means that businesses and consumers have received immediate relief, but is the public ready yet to jump out of their high inflation rate mindset?
According to a recent report by Reuters, even before the Fed announced a rate cut the financial markets had already begun making credit cheaper for consumers and businesses. Mortgage rates were slightly down, corporate bond yields were also cut, and day-to-day personal and auto loans were also eased. For instance, the average rate a person had to pay for a 30-year fixed home mortgage is 6% after decreasing 2 percentage points from a year ago. Moreover, as per Redfin, a real estate firm, the average median price of houses sold in the middle of September was $3,000 less than the all-time high prices in April and represented a 3% decrease year-over-year. A recent survey shows that while inflation has come down significantly during recent times, the public mood is still distracted due to the past two years of high inflation.
In one of our recent articles, we talked about how the interest rate cut helps both growth and value stocks. However, the market trends show that the recent announcement is favoring growth stocks more than value stocks. Here’s an excerpt from the 10 Worst Affordable Stocks Under $10:
“It is true that interest rate cuts help both growth and value stocks, but which ones are doing better? The current market trend shows the interest rate cut expectation and the announcement supported growth stocks more than the value stocks and also resulted in small caps becoming new favorites.
Talking about value stocks and how the market could be entering into a slower growth period, Vahan Janjigian, Chief Investment Officer at Greenwich Wealth Management, and Margaret Patel, Senior Portfolio Manager for multi-asset solutions at Allspring Global Investments discussed this in a recent CNBC interview. Janjigian expressed his cautiousness regarding the market even after the Fed cut rates. He believes that interest rates will go up in the long term. It is because the market is eventually going to get a more normalized yield curve, which he believes is good for the economy. If the yield curve continues to follow the upward trajectory, it will favor value stocks more than growth stocks.
Stated that the market moves in the direction Janjigian expects, we can see a sell-off for the stocks that are currently moving higher, including the tech and growth stocks. Moreover, he also pointed towards some of the biggest investment risks. He mentioned that the rising deficit, debt, and cost of servicing the debt are some of the biggest threats. Debt is also one of the reasons interest rates could potentially go up in the future, as the debt grows it can potentially push the market-determined interest rate higher.”
Banks are considered value stocks, Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets managing director, thinks banks’ margins will open up as the Fed begins rate cuts.
On September 20, Cassidy appeared in a CNBC interview to talk about how banks are likely to perform in the current scenario. Gerard Cassidy has done some research on the 25-year banking history of the United States and has concluded that when the Fed cuts rates in a period of no recession, bank stocks tend to go up. He mentioned that in 1995 when the Federal Reserve cut the interest rates and the economy was not going into a recession, bank stocks went up 55%.
Cassidy believes deposits of the banks set them apart from any other company. When the Fed starts to cut rates, the funding cost of the banks comes down due to their deposits. Moreover, most banks have loans and bonds from 2021 and 2022 at extremely low yields, so these assets mature in a higher rate environment even as rates come down. Regardless of this, the funding rates come down faster resulting in higher margins for the banks.
The concept explained above hasn’t changed since the comparison period of 1995, thereby indicating that bank stocks could potentially benefit from rate cuts. Gerard Cassidy thinks the current market condition should result in higher net interest margins and net interest income for at least the top 20 banks.
Lastly, while talking about consumer borrowing behavior, Cassidy believes, we need a greater amount of cuts and the magnitude of easing has to come in. He thinks perhaps at least a 100 basis point will trigger some borrowing trend among the general public.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of 7 cheap beginner stocks to invest in, we selected the stocks of established companies that were the most widely held by hedge funds and are trading below a forward P/E of 15. The list has been ranked in ascending order of the number of institutional holders, as of Q2 2024.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)
Forward P/E Ratio: 9.95
Earnings Growth This Year: 3.70%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 91
One of the first names that comes to mind while talking about Chinese technology is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA). However, the company has been facing some difficulty maintaining its market-leading position. But it is still amongst the leaders when it comes to e-commerce, cloud technologies, and now AI as well.
The concept of artificial intelligence is not new for the tech giant. It has been using 24/7 chatbots long before artificial intelligence became a buzzword. However, management has made some recent developments within its cloud business which is driving improved revenues.
In the fiscal first quarter of 2025, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) reported that its revenue grew 6% on the back of double-digit growth in its cloud business. Its AI-related product revenues were impressive with 155% growth during the same time.
The cloud segment growth was also due to an artificial integration that provides personalized suggestions for customers, resulting in targeted marketing of its products. It is also developing its large language model called Qwen 2.0, which will support more than 27 languages. Users have been liking Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s (NYSE:BABA) AI cloud platform indicated by a robust 200% growth during the quarter.
Management and analysts believed that artificial intelligence has the potential to bring the company to its former glory and it seems Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has been doing well in keeping up the expectation.
O’keefe Stevens Advisory stated the following regarding Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“We initiated two new positions during the quarter: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) and Perrigo (PRGO). Both have seen their stocks decline over 70%+ from their all-time highs.
Alibaba is the largest e-commerce player in China, with 40% gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share through its Taobao and T-mall businesses. While the cloud computing business is relatively small, its 37% market share in China positions it well to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-related products. In the most recent quarter, AI-related cloud revenue recorded triple-digit growth y/y, with the expectation that total cloud revenue will accelerate to double-digit growth in 2H 2025.
It’s rare to find a dominant market share business with significant tailwinds trading for ~10x adj. EPS. After accounting for their ~$60B net cash balance sheet, the stock is trading at 6-7x, which, we believe, is far too cheap. We understand this business would not trade at this price if it were a U.S. business. However, the valuation gap at a high single-digit P/E is pricing in a combination of the following risks – 1. China invading Taiwan. 2. Cash can never leave mainland China (disproven). 3. Increasing competition from Pinduoduo and Shien resulting in market share loss 4. China’s geopolitical tensions worsen. 5. Economic slowdown stemming from the recent housing market downturn. 6. VIE structure creates doubt over the actual ownership of the business. All risks have merit, with cash distribution restrictions at the lower end due to the recently announced dividend and special dividend. Cash returned to shareholders totaled $16.5B in FY24, up from $13.4B in FY23…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall BABA ranks 4th on our list of the cheap beginner stocks to invest in. While we acknowledge the potential of BABA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a promising AI stock that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure. None. This article was originally published on Insider Monkey.
