We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best E-Commerce Stocks To Invest In. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) stands against the other e-commerce stocks.
An Overview of the E-Commerce Industry
According to a report by Forbes, the e-commerce industry is expected to grow to a valuation of $7.9 trillion by 2027 from $6.3 trillion in 2024. In 2027, 23% of retail purchases are expected to be made online, up from 20.1% in 2024.
An increase in consumer confidence, after a period of sluggish growth, has been a key catalyst in improving the position of the e-commerce industry. On July 30, Reuters reported that the consumer confidence index, in the US, increased to 100.3 in July after it was revised down to 97.8 in June. Previously, experts predicted the index to fall to 99.7 after reaching 100.4 basis points. Chief Economist, Dana Peterson, suggested that while consumers remain resilient they are concerned over rising prices and interest rates. However, despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment, e-commerce companies are taking advantage of the current consumer sentiment by reducing prices. Companies like Target have also revised their profits for FY 2024 as lowered prices have drawn more customers.
To shed light on the state of online retail, US Mastercard Economics Institute Chief Economist, Michelle Meyer appeared in an interview on Yahoo Finance on August 16. Online retail sales went up by 8.2% in July, compared to a 2.9% growth rate in July 2023. She further explains that personal finances, time efficacy, and the overall state of the labor market impact which sites consumers choose to shop from. Meyer also added that in the past quarter, the average individual in the United States saw an appreciation in wealth, which has a positive bearing on consumer spending and therefore online retail.
What Does the Competitive E-Commerce Landscape look like?
The future of e-commerce is unpredictable. Bans on products from China, questions about cheap labor, criticism over fast fashion, and the increasing use of technology are different forces shaping the industry. In the first quarter of 2024, the US pushed to ban TikTok in the country, which mongered fear among Chinese e-commerce sites such as Shein and Temu. In April, law-making agencies in the US suggested a ban on Temu over labor rights infringement. Moreover, on August 21, Shein sued Temu over copyright infringements. The former suggested that Temu stole the company’s designs and trade secrets resulting in Temu losing money over every sale. Despite such, the founder of Temu, Colin Huang, stands as the wealthiest person in China with a net worth of $51.4 billion, as of August 22. You can also take a look at the best Chinese stocks to buy now.
On the other hand, e-commerce sites in the United States are trying to win against their competitors using advanced technology. Walmart, for instance, launched a generative AI search tool that customers can prompt and get a list of ideal products or items needed. For example, a customer who wants to throw a birthday party, but is unaware of the items needed, could use the search tool to save time. Similarly, Amazon launched Rufus, an AI shopping assistant, earlier this year. Rufus is capable of personally assisting a shopper and helping them find the right products. While we discuss technology, we cannot ignore eBay’s magical listing tool for sellers backed by artificial intelligence. The tool can analyze images, categories, and titles to curate product descriptions, prices, and shipping costs. You should also read our piece on the latest AI news and analyst ratings you should not miss.
As the e-commerce industry grows, it is crucial to know which companies are pioneering the race. You can also read our piece on the best advertising stocks to buy according to short sellers.
Our Methodology
To compile the list of the 10 best e-commerce stocks to invest in, we looked at holdings of e-commerce ETFs and screened for Internet Retail companies on the Finviz stock screener. We sorted our screen by market cap and looked at the 20 largest e-commerce companies. We picked stocks that were the most widely held by institutional investors, as of Q2 2024. The list is in ascending order of the number of hedge fund holders for each stock.
Note: All pricing data is as of August 22.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
An e-commerce platform displaying a wide range of products to customers online.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 91
Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) is a technology and internet retail company that operates e-commerce sites that serve both consumers and small business owners. In addition to e-commerce, Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) is also involved in cloud computing, logistics, digital media, and entertainment.
Merchants and small business owners use Alibaba.com to buy products such as clothing items, accessories, and shoes for reselling. AliExpress, on the other hand, is a retail site for mass consumers who can purchase all sorts of items such as appliances, office equipment, home improvement, and sports equipment, to name a few. It has over 150 million users and is present in 190 countries.
Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) is among the best e-commerce stocks to buy now and we say that because its platforms are used by more than 800 million people worldwide. It has a 40% share in the Chinese e-commerce market, as per estimates by the DBS Bank in Hong Kong. In the first quarter of 2024, the group reported revenue worth $30.73 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Its global e-commerce segment, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), reported revenue worth $3.8 billion, up by 45% year-over-year. Combined orders for AIDC’s marketplaces expanded by 20%.
One may ask how Alibaba Group is managing to increase order volumes amid fierce market competition. The answer is simple, providing premium customer shopping experiences at the lowest price possible. The company’s revenue was driven by its new strategy, AliExpress Choice, accounting for 70% of orders placed on AliExpress. Choice is a premium e-commerce service offered by AliExpress that allows shoppers to source products directly from factories, shrinking the supply chain. Customers placing orders through Choice enjoy greater control over product selection, price, and shipping.
Despite macro headwinds and geopolitical turmoil in the country, analysts are bullish on the stock, and their 1-year median price target of $111.26 points to a 33% upside from current levels. Overall, BABA was held by 91 hedge funds at the close of Q2 2024 with total stakes amounting to $3.81 billion. As of June 30, Appaloosa Management LP was the largest shareholder with a position worth $756 million. Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) e-commerce segment is part of an industry that is expected to reach $18.81 trillion in 2029 from $8.8 trillion in 2024 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) or 15.8%.
O’keefe Stevens Advisory stated the following regarding Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“We initiated two new positions during the quarter: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) and Perrigo (PRGO). Both have seen their stocks decline over 70%+ from their all-time highs.
Alibaba is the largest e-commerce player in China, with 40% gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share through its Taobao and T-mall businesses. While the cloud computing business is relatively small, its 37% market share in China positions it well to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-related products. In the most recent quarter, AI-related cloud revenue recorded triple-digit growth y/y, with the expectation that total cloud revenue will accelerate to double-digit growth in 2H 2025.
It’s rare to find a dominant market share business with significant tailwinds trading for ~10x adj. EPS. After accounting for their ~$60B net cash balance sheet, the stock is trading at 6-7x, which, we believe, is far too cheap. We understand this business would not trade at this price if it were a U.S. business. However, the valuation gap at a high single-digit P/E is pricing in a combination of the following risks – 1. China invading Taiwan. 2. Cash can never leave mainland China (disproven). 3. Increasing competition from Pinduoduo and Shien resulting in market share loss 4. China’s geopolitical tensions worsen. 5. Economic slowdown stemming from the recent housing market downturn. 6. VIE structure creates doubt over the actual ownership of the business. All risks have merit, with cash distribution restrictions at the lower end due to the recently announced dividend and special dividend. Cash returned to shareholders totaled $16.5B in FY24, up from $13.4B in FY23…” (Click here to read the full text)”
Overall BABA ranks 3rd on our list of the best e-commerce stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of BABA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BABA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
