We recently compiled a list of the 8 Best Golf Stocks To Invest In According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) stands against the other golf stocks.
Investing in the Booming Golf Industry
The golf industry has gained immense popularity for various reasons, making it a significant part of global sports culture. According to the National Golf Foundation, golf’s international reach is estimated at 123 million. In the US, over a third of the population aged 5 and older engaged with golf in 2023, a 30% increase since 2016. Its appeal lies not only in the challenge it presents, requiring skill, strategy, and patience but also in the social and recreational aspects it offers. Its inclusion in international events like the Olympics has contributed to its widespread acceptance and growth, attracting diverse demographics across different countries.
As reported by Grand View Research, the global golf equipment market, valued at $7.48 billion in 2022, is expected to grow at a 5.0% CAGR from 2023 to 2030. This growth is fueled by rising disposable incomes, increased golf course development, global golf tourism, and the rising participation of women in the sport. Innovative product development by industry leaders is further driving market expansion. While the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the market due to global lockdowns, the industry is recovering and is expected to see continued growth.
Following a notable boom in 2020, total golf participation in the US surpassed 40 million for the first time in 2022, highlighting the sport’s increasing popularity, according to NBC Sports Next. Several key trends are shaping the golf landscape in 2024. First, women are playing a pivotal role in driving golf’s popularity, with recent studies revealing that they constitute 49% of surveyed golfers. The National Golf Foundation reported a remarkable 15% increase in female golfers from 2020 to 2022, contrasting sharply with a mere 2% rise among male golfers during the same period.
Additionally, golf has transformed into a social experience, with nearly half of the surveyed golfers indicating they primarily play with friends. This shift emphasizes the communal aspect of the game, which can be leveraged by course managers to tailor marketing strategies and enhance engagement. Furthermore, there is a rising demand for golf lessons, with 36% of golfers reporting they took lessons in the past year, this figure jumps to 67% among GolfNow users, indicating a strong desire to improve skills regardless of competitive aspirations.
Golf stocks can be categorized under consumer cyclical stocks for several reasons. First and foremost, golf-related products and services, such as equipment, apparel, and memberships, are generally considered discretionary items. This means that consumers tend to spend more on these products when economic conditions are favorable. As a result, golf stocks exhibit characteristics typical of consumer cyclical stocks, which thrive during economic expansions and often suffer during downturns. Furthermore, the golf industry often reflects broader consumer trends. Increased participation in leisure activities like golf typically indicates a robust economy. Companies involved in the golf industry in one way or another are directly linked to consumer spending patterns in leisure and recreation, which are key aspects of the consumer cyclical sector. During economic downturns, consumers may prioritize essential spending over discretionary activities like golfing, leading to a decline in revenue for these companies.
On October 23, Jeff DeGraaf, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro, joined ‘Closing Bell’ on CNBC to discuss market seasonality and why he thinks it’s a good time for strong returns. He believes that seasonals have set up a nice cyclical trade from now through 2025. Jeff DeGraaf noted that while there is currently limited internal momentum, this should not be viewed negatively, rather, it could signify a consolidation phase.
He highlighted a unique market condition characterized by overbought conditions in both yields and the dollar, which are currently in a downtrend. Historically, when these conditions contract, it tends to be favorable for cyclical stocks. He emphasized that historically, the end of October marks one of the most bullish weeks for the market’s three-month forward returns. Given this confluence of factors, including overbought conditions and seasonal trends, DeGraaf believes there is potential for a cyclical trade to gain traction through the remainder of the year and into the first half of 2025.
Addressing concerns about yields and the dollar, he acknowledged that there is uncertainty surrounding their future movements, particularly with the upcoming elections. However, he maintained that his quantitative measures indicate negative trends for both yields and the dollar. DeGraaf suggested that while some investors may be recalibrating their expectations regarding these factors, the current overbought conditions are likely to subside as the market moves through the fourth quarter.
His overall insights suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for cyclical stocks as they navigate current market conditions characterized by overbought indicators and seasonal trends. Golf stocks present a compelling investment opportunity as they align with the broader trends of consumer cyclical stocks, thriving during economic expansions. With increasing participation in leisure activities and projected growth in the golf industry, golf-related companies are well-positioned to benefit from rising consumer spending.
Our Methodology
We sifted through ETFs, online rankings, and internet lists to compile a list of 15 golf stocks with high analysts’ upside potential. We then selected the 8 stocks that were the most popular among elite hedge funds and that analysts were bullish on. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A group of happy golfers basking in the warm sun on a golf course.
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO)
Average Upside Potential: 19.89%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 28
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) is a sporting goods retailer that offers a range of athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment for various sports, including golf. Golf offerings include clubs, balls, bags, and accessories from a variety of popular brands, as well as golf technology and training aids. It also provides golf apparel and footwear designed to cater to golfers of all skill levels, ensuring a comprehensive selection for enthusiasts and professionals alike.
Sales for FQ2 2025 declined 2.15% year-over-year to $1.55 billion. The company’s core customer base, earning between $50,000 and $150,000 annually, remained cautious due to inflationary pressures and rising household debt. This led to reduced consumer sentiment and increased reliance on credit and buy-now-pay-later options. Additionally, severe weather events, including tornadoes and hurricanes, disrupted operations in key markets. Despite these challenges, the company remained committed to supporting its team members and communities affected by the storms.
The decline in quarterly revenue was primarily driven by a 7.4% decrease in transactions, partially offset by a 0.5% increase in average ticket size. Inventory balance increased by 4% to $1.37 billion, while inventory units remained flat on a per-store basis. The company remains committed to its capital allocation strategy, prioritizing financial stability, self-funding growth initiatives, and increasing shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends.
The company remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects. its strategic focus on key shopping moments, value pricing, and innovative product offerings continues to drive sales, particularly in footwear and outdoor categories. While the back-to-school season was slightly weaker than anticipated, Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) is confident in its ability to capitalize on upcoming holiday seasons and new product launches and is well-positioned to improve its top-line performance.
Voss Capital made the following comment about Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) in its Q1 2023 investor letter:
“Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) is a sports and outdoor retailer based in Houston, TX, with 268 locations across 18 states. ASO is concentrated in the south and southeast, which contain many of the fastest growing markets in the country in terms of both population and labor force. Of ASO’s current footprint, 40% of stores are in Texas with another 40% spread across Florida, Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee – all states in the top 20 for net migration since 2020. ASO recently hosted an investor day where they presented their plan to reach $10 billion in revenue, 13.5% operating margins, and 10% net margins by 2027, with a 30% ROIC. This plan includes 120 – 140 new store openings and 3% average same-store sales for existing stores. The company emphasized that these targets were calculated with the assumption that there may be a recession in 2023 or 2024. While there are typically a lot of risks associated with a retailer or restaurant expanding into new markets that aren’t familiar with the brand, we believe ASO has a good track record of doing this successfully and profitably. 7 All ASO’s stores are profitable6, including stores that are the only Academy location in the state such as in West Virginia, Virginia, or Illinois. In fact, ASO’s stores are so profitable that even its worst quartile of stores generates the same amount of operating income ($2 million EBIT per location) as its largest competitor’s average store7.
Two of ASO’s three distribution centers are currently operating at only 50% of capacity, giving them plenty of space to grow into with lower incremental capital needs. If the company executes on its guidance, it will generate $3.5 billion in free cash flow cumulatively from 2023 – 2027. Given this FCF build (assuming no buybacks or dividends), ASO’s enterprise value in 2027 (at the current stock price) would be $1.8 billion or 1.1x 2027 EBIT. The 75th percentile of ASO’s retail peer group trades at 14.5x FY2 EBIT. Achieving these targets over the next four years would cement ASO among the best-in-class public retailers, coming in above the 90th percentile in value-driving metrics including revenue growth, margins, and ROIC. However, even if ASO is valued at just the current median EV/EBIT multiple of the peer group (8.5x) in 2026, it would result in an enterprise value of $11.5 billion. If one adds on the estimated $3.2 billion in net cash in 2027, this will equate to an equity value of $14.7 billion or $184/share, 207% upside from today’s price of ~$60/share or a 45% 3-year CAGR. This assumes the management team can more or less hit the targets they laid out at their 2023 investor day in April–but should they whiff, there could be a downside buffer (or further upside) if there is any value-additive capital allocation along the way.”
Overall, ASO ranks 3rd on our list of the 8 best golf stocks to invest in according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the growth potential of ASO, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
