Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Keith Weiss: Next quarter in Q1. The question that we’re all going to get tomorrow from investors is the outlook derisked. So I wanted to dig into kind of like your guys thought process. When you’re talking about Credit Karma, you told us that — you looked at sort of the trends that happened in — at the end of the quarter in the last couple of weeks, and you assume that those trends deteriorate a little bit further on a go-forward basis to get a conservative Credit Karma guide. Can you talk to us about — like you didn’t change any of the other numbers? All the other sort of business lines are kind of intact with your prior expectations. But is there any similar kind of derisking them? Like are you assuming any degradation in the underlying business for QBO or Mailchimp or like any of the other businesses in a similar way you are Credit Karma?

Sasan Goodarzi: Yes. Keith, thank you for your question. And I just want to acknowledge that you and others were pushing us on our Credit Karma side at Investor Day. And let me just start at the top level to share sort of what we’ve learned and what we’ve adjusted, and then I’ll answer your question. When we look across tax, which is 35% of the Company; and then when you look at across small business, which is over 50% of the Company, so that’s like 86% of the Company, we have sort of — which includes Mailchimp, we have proven and tried KPIs that allows us to see things well into sort of the future not only to ensure that we’re investing in all the right things, but also be able to be very intentional and thoughtful about how we guide because we take our guidance very seriously.

One of the things that we learned with Credit Karma is there are two factors that we look at but we did not take into account: one is unemployment, the other is delinquency rates. And what I mean by that, not taking it into account as we view it, we look at it, and they’re at historical lows. And the one thing that we learned from this process, what we are adjusting and have adjusted our KPIs is just looking at where they are today, but also projecting where they could be a year from now and ultimately projecting what could happen if we were sitting in the shoes of some of the partners that are on our platform. So that is a very important shift, which actually gets at the point you made around our Credit Karma guidance. We feel that it is absolutely derisked.

We — as you heard from Michelle and I, we have built a deterioration and conservatism in the back half of the year because we have taken into account uptick in both unemployment and delinquency rates, and therefore, have put out a guidance that we believe is the risk. To go to the second part of your question, tax, which is 35% of the Company, that is really economically resilient. So let me focus my answer on Small Business. Because of our KPIs and the rich data that we have access to and what we see within Small Business, we actually feel like our guidance in Small Business is derisked because we make certain assumptions around how things will potentially play out the remainder of the year that we took into account when we set the initial guidance, and we still feel very good about the guidance.

And you can see based on what we delivered in Q1, we can just do the math and see what it means for the rest of the year. So we feel very good about the way we set guidance in those two businesses. We feel very good about the guidance in those areas for the rest of the year. And hopefully, my explanation made sense around Credit Karma.

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