We recently compiled a list of the 10 Unrivaled Stocks of the Next 10 Years. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) stands against the other unrivaled stocks of the next 10 years.
Growing a business is not an easy task. Several factors come into the picture when you talk about growth. In 2019, McKinsey reported that ~50% of the companies that enjoyed healthy and stable shareholder returns but didn’t see top-line growth were either acquired or delisted. Growth is getting tougher amidst new market dynamics such as higher consumer expectations, competitive intensity, and digital disruption. Growth can only be rewarded to businesses that spot opportunities at hyper-granular levels and then seize them quickly.
Pricing Power Remains Critical, Says Legendary Investor
Warren Buffett, the billionaire CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., mentioned that he tends to rate businesses based on their ability to increase prices. He pays so much attention to the pricing power that he sometimes doesn’t even consider the people who are managing the business. Buffett has had a successful career of stock picking and takeovers.
The veteran investor has bought companies in the business of railroads and electricity producers, whose pricing power comes from a dearth of competitive options available to their clients. Buffett has also built stakes in several consumer discretionary companies relying on the appeal of their brands to bring in customers.
Forecasts for 2024
Wall Street analysts expect that S&P 500 companies are expected to report steady earnings growth in 2024. They anticipate a ~5.4% earnings growth in 3Q 2024 and over ~15% earnings growth in 4Q 2024. The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at ~22.40x as of August 30. The 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio came at ~17.9x, suggesting that the stock valuations might be slightly stretched.
Moving forward, the US presidential election remains the most significant potential market catalyst for 2H 2024. Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management believes that inflation numbers might surprise to the upside towards the end of 2024 and into 2025. This is because year over year comparables might become more difficult and the effects of increased Chinese shipping rates start reflecting in the inflation data points.
Equity Market Outlook Amidst Uncertain Macro-Economic Environment
A “higher-for-longer” backdrop favoured larger and higher-quality companies that are less cyclical and rate-sensitive. Such companies were supported by mania in Artificial Intelligence/Large Language Models (AI/LLM) stocks. JPMorgan believes that, in the US equities, momentum crowding and stock market concentration reached multi-decade extremes.
Market volatility in the US remains low, with VIX averaging only ~14 for the year to July 2024. This was mainly because of fundamental and technical factors, such as rising markets, risk complacency, and lower realized correlation, among others.
In Europe and other areas, the broader equities were supported by improved economic activity and the expectation of multiple Fed cuts at the start of 2024. However, the growth-policy trade-off might worsen in 2H 2024. JPMorgan believes that “there is a risk of disappointment.” The large bank expects that the Fed might stay ‘higher-for-longer,’ US activity momentum might decelerate and there can be a softening of pricing and top-line growth. Collectively, this might hurt earnings delivery in 2H 2024. Therefore, investing in stocks with wide economic moats and companies having significant market share should help offset the losses in the remainder of 2024.
Our methodology
To list 10 unrivaled stocks of the next 10 years, we sifted through wide moat ETFs and checked online rankings. Next, we narrowed our list by filtering out the companies that have held a near-monopoly status for years or decades. Finally, we ranked the stocks in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that hold them, as of 2Q 2024
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A professional tax preparer, using a laptop to complete an income tax return.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU)
Number of hedge fund holders: 82
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) is a provider of small-business accounting software, personal tax solutions, and professional tax offerings. The company has the largest market share in the Tax Preparation Software Developers industry, making up over ~70% of total industry revenue.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) has now transitioned into a cloud-first company. Therefore, the company can now use its customer data to streamline the user experience throughout its products and to market its offerings. This should help Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU ) in terms of switching costs and building a network effect, which make up the company’s wide economic moat. The company enjoys market leadership and brand recognition, helping it dominate the US market for small-business accounting and DIY tax filing software.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) has been launching Intuit Assist across its product lines. This is a GenAI-powered digital assistant. This will help Credit Karma users select new credit cards, QuickBooks customers to project their cash flows, and Mailchimp customers to create targeted email marketing campaigns. Also, it will help TurboTax customers understand changes in their tax returns.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) continues to shift its customer base to subscription offerings. This should help in achieving revenue growth moving forward as this can create a recurring revenue stream. Apart from enhancing revenue visibility, it will also foster customer loyalty and will reduce churn rates.
Analysts at Bank of America upped their price target on shares of Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) from $730.00 to $780.00. They gave a “Buy” rating on 23rd August. In Q2 2024, the number of hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database with stakes in Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) increased to 82 as compared to 77 in the preceding quarter.
Baron Funds, an investment management company, released a second quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“GenAI has captured the market’s imagination, but it’s still very early in the user adoption of this new technology, and the financial payoff from investments into GenAI models and infrastructure is still unknown. We are focused on investing in strong businesses that will be improved by AI, even if this improvement takes time to materialize. Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) has been rolling out Intuit Assist, a GenAI powered digital assistant, across its product lines to help Credit Karma users select new credit cards, QuickBooks customers forecast cash flow, Mailchimp customers create targeted email marketing campaigns, and TurboTax customers understand changes in their tax returns from the prior year. We consider these GenAI advancements to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, but we continue to closely monitor the impact of new technologies on the fintech industry.”
Overall INTU ranks 5th on our list of the unrivaled stocks of the next 10 years. While we acknowledge the potential of INTU as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than INTU but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
