Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Matt Preston: Yes, no, thanks for the question Lucas. I mean certainly Q2 volumes are always down as we enter the summer evaporation season. Wendover and HB are wrapping up right now. Moab wrapped up the season a few weeks ago. So we always see the drop down as opposed to just enter that season as far as kind of full year production we had guided in the prior call 10% to 15% higher production rates in ’24 compared to 23. And we’re happy to report we’re still really on track for that probably towards the high end of that guidance kind of 15% above 2023 volumes. So we’ll certainly see that benefit towards the back half of the year as we start to see those capital projects. We’ve talked about the DSD cavern IP 30 b and go back to Moab Cavern four last year really start to improve our brine grades and our production rates in the second half of 24?

Lucas Beaumont: Yes that’s great. So I mean if you I mean that probably implies about one 50 production in the second half then. So you should get us a good step update in your first half sales next year? If that one 50 requires through sort of versus the one 25 associates?

Matt Preston: Yes, certainly second half volumes can be impacted obviously going to get through the evaporation season which is underway right now and can be a little affected by timing of startup would restart of mid-August or kind of the first week of September because as I said kind of 15% above those ’23 rates. We feel like we’re seeing the progress we hope to see here in the first quarter.

Lucas Beaumont: Right. And then I guess just on the pricing side and something you’re expecting sort of flat pricing sequentially there. I mean the benchmark prices have sort of started to come off a little bit. What do you guys — what’s I guess what’s kind of driving your order book versus sort of where the market is and what sort of seasonal resetting you’re expecting this year? Should we see sort of more of one in the third quarter? Are you expecting some more mild seasonality in this year?

Zachry Adams: Yes, this is Zach here. So I think we see the global market as being very balanced and stable right now. Certainly, there’s always some seasonal price movements that you see as you kind of exit the application season and you go into that into that period of peak of the summer timeframe where buyers kind of look to in-season empty on inventory and kind of work on the timing of kind of when they’re going to refill their positions ahead of the fall season. As it relates to kind of second half, I think we’re optimistic about demand there. We think the prospect in the spring season in field inventory will continue and we think come and buyers to be ready to step in at some point this summer for volumes in the crop — the crop economics today still support to our customers and farmers looking to maximize yields. So we think that’s a positive bellwether for volumes in the second half and stable pricing going forward from Creditex.

Lucas Beaumont: Thanks. I’ll get back in the queue. Thanks.

Operator: The next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Joel Jackson: On Trio like your Q1 volumes sales line is I think the best quarter you’ve ever done for Trio in any quarter as a public company, pricing looks like it’s rising a bit in Q2 whereas potash price was stable and your TruVolume guys pretty good for Q2 as well. So I have to tell you what’s happening in Trios is like you’re getting really good uptake on it value and volumes.

Matt Preston: Yes, I’ll let Zach touch on the volumes of you’re right. It was record domestic sales there in Q1, but Zack go ahead.

Zachry Adams: Now, thanks Joe. Yes, I think what we saw on the volume side was some customers entered the year with very low channel inventories on site and across several regions. In the US we saw an early application period. So that really led to see in some volumes that typically might transact in April let’s call it kind of the pull forward into March. And so even with that I mean overall first half volumes look strong for us and in Trio compared to potash always has a little bit more of a tail on this on the application season to it just because it’s used in some side dress and top dress applications that kind of go out through late May and early June. So we expect to see good subscription really through the end of the second quarter and certainly we’ve seen that quarter to date so far.

Joel Jackson: If you are just not potash production clarification so not that my model is right, but I had that you were expecting about a 13% increase in production 2024 and 23% production increase in 2025. You’re talking about 23% increase now, is that for 2024-2025? Is my model right? Or are things going a bit better than you thought? Or am I wrong?

Matt Preston: Yeah. Go back to what we said on our Q4 call, which was a 10% to 15% increase in 2024 and another 15% to 20% in 2025. As I was telling Lucas, I think we’re closer to the 15% increase for 2024 right now. We haven’t — given, change really anything on 2025 that still weighs out, but certainly 2024 volumes look very good and towards the higher end of that guidance.