InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (NYSE:IHG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 3 of 12

Keith Barr: Thanks, Vicki. In terms of the share buyback, I mean it was a conversation at the Board level, how do we utilize catch right to invest in the business, grow the ordinary dividend and return surplus cash to shareholders. And based upon where you look at where consensus is today, how the trading outlook is and the tailwinds that we have, we were quite comfortable that the $750 million put us right in the range. Now it is a reset to make sure that we got back in the range because we were lower than we were expected to be. And we will continue to make sure that we look at future performance to continue to return surplus cash to shareholders as well, too. But effectively, I mean this is how, as Paul and team and I have been kind of rebuilding and engineering this business over the last 5 years, this is the outcome that we were expecting to achieve.

Grow the ordinary dividend every year and consistently from free cash flow, return capital to shareholders, not through asset sales but through the operating performance and free cash flow generation of the company and we’re quite confident that’s going to be the way moving forward.

Vicki Lee: And just circling back on that, any sort of different view then on the absolute level of leverage, just given higher interest rates currently?

Keith Barr: No, no, we’re quite happy with that range that we previously provided.

Operator: The next question goes to Richard Clarke of Bernstein.

Richard Clarke: Three, if I may, first 1 just following up really on what Vicki asked there. If I sort of look forward to where you’ll be in a year’s time and you even just repeat your free cash flow and EBITDA, you achieved in 2022. It looks to me like you’d be slightly below your 2.5 to 3x leverage target. So is there sort of scope to do further investment, any working capital outflows, CapEx, anything we should think about? Or could that buyback actually even be accelerated as the year goes on? Second question, you obviously hinted on the call that Iberostar could be the first of a few partnership deals. Is this a sort of a new venture for you? Why do you prefer that way to grow rather than M&A or organic growth? Is there some scope there as well?

And what kind of deals might you look at in that space? And then the third one, just I think there’s a little bit of confusion out there sometimes about what the competitive landscape looks like in China with regarding the wider industry, what are you seeing in terms of the number of rooms that have come out of that market aside from yourselves and the other branded players, has that market noticeably shrunk in terms of room numbers over the last few years? Or do you just see that as a temporary effect?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson: Thanks, Richard. I’ll take the first and then Keith will comment on the other 2. In terms of where the buyback would take us to — I mean, it requires a prediction of what the EBITDA in 2023 is going to be doesn’t it? But we think the $750 million announced now which would add to 0.8 turns on to the 2.1 that we end up with the 2022 numbers is a sensible place to start and it does give us capacity to continue to invest in the business which we’ve always said is the most important thing. I think as you listen to Keith and I talk about how we think about the business, we need to make sure this is a strongly invested business that can continue to support the growth that we generate. So we do invest back into the business but then we continue to have significant amounts of spare cash and we return that.

Page 3 of 12