InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (NYSE:IHG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson: I think that it really depends on the demand environment. And — so we have very strong revenue management tools. And as demand comes in, then we revenue manage that to the best outcome of rate and occupancy for us. So — certainly, so far, it’s been a very strong rate environment and looking at forward bookings and looking at level of leisure demand. So it certainly all goes well for the future.

Operator: And the next question goes to Leo Carrington of Citi Leo.

Leo Carrington: Just two for me, please. Firstly, on the comments in the presentation on IMF being still lower than 2019 in EMEAA. Can you give an indication of how they recovered in H2 or even Q4 in order to give an indication of the 2023 path, please? And then secondly, a brief follow-up on net unit growth, that 4% to 5% corridor for 2023. Does that include the Iberostar rooms being brought in this year?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson: Yes. Look, on the second, that’s an easier one. Iberostar is as part of our organic business getting added in. It’s not something we’ve acquired or anything. This is just part of what we do. So yes, exactly how many of the Iberostar rooms remaining coming in ’23. We have to wait and see, you’ll probably be paced across ’23 and 2024. And then in terms of the IMF, yes, they are obviously down on where they were back in 2019. And that’s principally in EMEAA and in China. So don’t get a lot of IMFs in the Americas these days anyway but it’s actually ahead of the 2019 levels. So I’m not going to give you the exact numbers but there’s certainly still room for recovery there in future profitability.

Leo Carrington: Okay. Maybe just a follow-up on that. The — would 2023 be a 2019 like level for EMEAA hotel profitability, maybe put it that way without going plus — I mean, without being more quantitative?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson: Yes, I think you can get there or thereabouts. It partly depends on the cost environment. And so obviously, I think revenues will be there. owners are seeing higher wage costs and higher operating costs which obviously does have an impact on IMF. But as long as the rate environment remains strong, then I think they’re going to have a very good year in 2023.

Operator: And the next question goes to Tim Barret of Numis.

Tim Barrett: My last question left is around demand. What you said on Slide 10, what you showed there is really helpful in terms of the leisure and business recovery. And verbally, you said that group is 13% below. Just wondering how you see that trending this year? Do you under-indexing group versus the industry? But are you still as confident on group as you are, say, on what your very bullish comments on business transient?

Keith Barr: Yes. Thank you. I mean we do index lower than our peer set in terms of percentage of group that’s about 15% of our mix is groups. And just to give you a sense, though, for the exit rate, again, group revenue was down, in Q2 was down 16%, then down 11% in Q3, then down 7% in Q4. December’s exit rate was down 4%. So you’re seeing that progressive set of recovery in the group segment which gives you confidence and talking to the teams, we’re seeing as restrictions have been lifted in China, groups meetings and events inquiries are coming in, seeing strong requests in the U.S. too, can’t find confidence in meeting space in many of the major markets right now. And strange enough hybrid working is actually a tailwind for groups because people are getting people together, too. So I think we’re confident that you’re going to see this continued progression in the recovery of group business.

Operator: And our final question goes to.

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