Imperial Oil Limited (AMEX:IMO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Brad Corson : Yes, thanks for the question, and I will let Dan comment, but we would just emphasize the significant return of surplus cash that we’ve made last year over $7 billion. We’ve just kind of summarized what we’ve done so far, and obviously our dividend, strategy is key and integral to returning surplus cash to shareholders. But maybe I’ll let Dan talk a little bit about kind of how we view one mechanism versus another and kind of our long-term philosophy on base dividends.

Dan Lyons : Sure. Thanks Brad. Yes, look, a reliable and growing dividend is the kind of bedrock of our cash return strategy and where it all starts. And we’ve done pretty significant increase over the last few years and on a growth basis, I think caught up with, well — on a growth basis, exceeded most of our peers. And look, we continue to want to grow the dividend. Obviously, it’s a trade-off. You don’t want to get ahead of yourself and have to cut and things like that, but I think fundamentally you’re correct, there is room to grow and obviously as we deliberate that we look at our future prospects and everything else and we set those levels. So we take your point, looking for more dividend growth and that that’ll certainly come over time and we’re highly aware of what our competitors do in terms of increases and yields and that obviously reflects our thinking and their actions and yields affect us in a way that probably the way you want that if they’re going higher, we would tend to follow that of course, looking at our unique situation and what we see is our future cash flows.

But you’re right, we’re very resilient. We put out a $35 and last investor day, break even day, including, I’m sorry, at our investor day, a $35 WTI break even, which includes sustaining capital and dividends. So our dividend super secure and you’re absolutely correct. We have room to increase it. Look, it’s one of those good problems and we appreciate the thoughts. My really quick follow up is on Kearl, so third quarter volumes were obviously very strong and you look on page for the bid point of guidance for the full year. Just wondering if you can give a quick update on October volumes and address if there’s any tension between volumes and wide differentials as you execute the rest of this quarter.

Brad Corson : Well, we continue to be committed to our full year guidance for Kearl and the third quarter performance, I think is demonstrative of our capability to achieve that. October has been a strong month for us so far. There’s still, I guess five, six days to go relative to the latest volumes that I’ve seen. But we expect to be somewhere in the two eighties for this month, which also reflects some very minor kind of routine plan maintenance that we executed. And we see continued strength as we move into November, December.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Menno Hulshof with TD Securities.

Menno Hulshof : I’ll start with a question on the 2024 outlook. I do understand that you’re in the midst of the budgeting process, but would you be able to give us the broad strokes on planned turnaround activity within upstream and downstream for the coming year?

Brad Corson : Yeah, we’re not in a position to discuss all those details yet. That’ll be part of our normal guidance and we’re in the process of finalizing all of our plans for next year. But as we think more broadly about it — we’re expecting a pretty typical turnaround year next year. I don’t think anything kind of extra ordinary. So, I’d say that that’d be the planning, rough planning basis now. And then as we get to the end of the year, we’ll give more specifics on each of the assets the target timing, duration, cost, but just a little bit to premature to share those details with you.

Menno Hulshof : Maybe I’ll just follow-up on line five. It’s been pretty quiet on that front for a while. And just going back over some of the comments from past conference calls, you’ve talked about contingency plans and constantly refreshing the different scenarios. Can you just give us an update on what you’re hearing there and what’s your best guess on how this plays out?

Brad Corson : Yeah, I think, you characterize it right from the beginning. It’s been pretty quiet. There’s continued progress by Enbridge to kind of install the new pipe work through all the technical and permitting considerations there. We continue to be optimistic that there won’t be any interruptions of service. We do have contingency plans in place, but I’d say, even as I sit here today versus a year ago or two years ago, we’re becoming increasingly comfortable that, there won’t be any interruption. There is obviously things well outside our control. But it has been quite quiet.

Operator: We will take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta: Thank you. And I will add my congratulations. Dave, you will be missed. And Peter, wish you lots of luck in the new role. A couple of questions here. The first is just around the SIB. Can you just go through the thought process behind the decision around $1.5 billion, similar to last year and just thoughts on whether, if the commodity price stays up here, is it possible to do this again in the spring? Last year was a little tougher earlier this year was a little tougher because of the large deferred tax payment, but I don’t think you have the same thing in 1Q of 2024. So thanks.

Brad Corson : Thanks for the question. I would like to answer that question. But I promised to Dan that I would let him answer all the SIB questions because he loves talking about it. Over to you Dan.

Dan Lyons: Sure. Look, you know, our philosophy is not super complicated. As we generate the cash, the free cash flow, we return it. So that’s really kind of where the $1.5 billion came from. And I would say, I was rerouted, we don’t go to a precise number. So $1.5 billion is a good round number. It makes sense based on our cash balances and cash flow. You are correct that we do not have a big make up payment. Like, we had a very unique situation last year. That is not expect to be the case this last year, unless in a good world, prices go to $200 or something, may maybe then we have that. But, not likely to happen. So as we look to next year, our commodity prices stay strong, our cash generation stays strong. We generate free cash flow. Our base plan is to return that to shareholders. So I think we will see where those numbers go. But, that’s really an unchanged philosophy. It is a continuation of what we have been doing for a while.

Neil Mehta: Okay. That’s helpful. And it’s good to see the return of capital. Follow-up is on Pathways. It’s been quiet from our perspective as an investment community around this. I know, Brad, you spend a lot of time on this. So maybe you can peel back the onion a little bit for us and help us to understand, are we getting closer to FID? What are the gating conditions here? And is it fair to assume in the base case this gets FID in 2024? Thank you.

Brad Corson : Thanks for that question. And, I guess, interesting perspective that it has been quiet from your standpoint. It hadn’t been quiet from my standpoint, though, or the rest of the Pathways team, because they are is an extraordinary amount of work underway. And may maybe I will break that into a couple of key components that that all need to come together to achieve an eventual FID. First of all, there is a lot of work underway to progress the engineering side of the project. This is a big multibillion dollar project, and that requires significant pre-engineering work, which we’ve now essentially completed and positions us to move into kind of more feed engineering studies. There’s a significant amount of environmental studies that need to be conducted across the pipeline right of way route that’s planned.