ICL Group Ltd (NYSE:ICL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

If you add to them M&A that will account for about 30% of the revenue growth in growing solutions and about 15% and the growth of phosphate specialties. I hope that’s not too much information. As far as industrial products is concerned, the growth will be organic, unless there is some unexpected development. We don’t need M&A to hit our targets. We have relatively aggressive target for industrial products, but we have a very detailed outline plan that we feel confident about. So our R&D is in place, our operations in place, the plants that need to be built are either in planning are being built, we have tremendous new opportunities in specialties because of what’s happening in the electric vehicle space. And other than commodities, which will be cyclical and we’ll be happy to get — we’ll be happy to get same conditions as 2022, but we’re definitely not counting on them.

So long-term margins will go back to 2021 margins for now, they will incrementally increase every year until 2027 and the growth will be organic, other than 30% M&A in growing solutions and 20% in phosphates specialties.

Ben Theurer: Thank you very much.

Aviram Lahav: When you think about M&As, especially in the agricultural side, it can come by one of two ways, it’s either portfolio or geographies or both of them. So we speak a lot about portfolio, but we also have massive plans about geographies, and it might be that we will opt to shortcut and do some M&As in order to support geographies as well. So, bear it in mind, with the new five year plan we are definitely looking and we’re looking in all directions as long as it’s synergetic, as long as we can add value to the acquisition not an acquisition per se. Thank you

Ben Theurer: Perfect. Thank you very much.

Raviv Zoller: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kyle Caunt from Citi. Please go ahead. Go ahead, Kyle

Kyle Caunt: Hi. Sorry I’m on mute. Firstly on your specialties guidance $1.6 billion this year, $1.1 billion next year. Can you give us an idea on the bridge break down between the different Specialties divisions that would be great? And then my second question on the flip side, obviously, that implies a commodities contribution of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion. What is your potash ASP that you’re baking in to arrive at that guidance? Thank you.

Raviv Zoller: Okay. So, like I said before, when you look at industrial products, then we’re looking at numbers that are almost identical to 2021 with the exception that behave — the seasonality will be different, given that we’re starting the year with a slow start, second half to be higher. On specialty phosphates and growing solutions will see a growing trajectory through the year, but we’ll go back to the 2021 margins for the year. So that’s the way to think about specialties and that’s how we got to the $1.1 billion, which is a conservative estimate for the modeling that I just talked about. And, again, some of the upside will be in the second half of the year, because of industrial products. On commodities, the way to maybe look at it is that, if you look at — if you look at the fourth quarter, $700 million of EBITDA and you multiply that by four and get to $2.8 billion for the year and given that we expect a couple of $100 million upside on specialties and that means that we get to the upper side of our guidance, you need to take out about $600 million, $600 million would reflect the downside on commodities and, of course, about 80% of that comes from potash.

So you get to close to the $500 million number for sales price of potash