Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Phillip Yeager: And I think I’d just add there are opportunities, I think, as well for us to be more efficient in our network, creating more balance also, as Brian mentioned, insourcing more drayage, reducing our third-party costs. So by getting back to more of a high-velocity network, we think we can reduce cost there as well. I think Geoff mentioned earlier, we are conservative in our guidance. And so I think your point that perhaps we’re being a little conservative, it’s probably right, but we also don’t want to build in a significant kind of economic bullwhip that maybe some others have. And so we’re trying to just make sure we stay conservative on that economic outlook.

Brian Ossenbeck: All right, thanks for the time, appreciate it.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors of Susquehanna. Your line is open Bascome.

Bascome Majors: When we think about the guidance and the cadence, is there a quarter or a period in the year where a couple of negative things line up, be it the roll-off of accessorials and pricing or really anything like – or even the rail increase, where – you’re just going to feel kind of the maximum part of the pain based on things you have some visibility into. I think that would be helpful as we set expectations for how the year plays out? Thank you.

Phillip Yeager: Yes, great question, something we thought about when we were putting guidance together. It’s going to be a little balanced. We’re going to be entering the year with a nice price tailwind coming out of a strong bid season in 2022. About 75% of our volume will reprice in the first half. So, we’re expecting stronger pricing in the first half, stronger accessorials, but the second half, we’ll see a pickup in volume. The accessorials probably roll off as we see more fluidity and price – we’re not anticipating will be quite as strong in 2023. So we probably will start off the year a little bit stronger. I think there is upside, though. We’ve had really two really strong years of peak season surcharges that really kind of went on throughout the year.

That has gone away. And but to the extent the upper end of our case is realized, that would come with a tightened – a tightening in the second half of the year, which we would expect would come with more surcharge.

Bascome Majors: And to follow-up on an earlier question, you’ve kind of pushed us towards the higher end and talked about conservatism. What scenario has to play out to get you to $7 or below? Just want to understand how dire the dire case is in your mind? Thank you.

Geoff DeMartino: Yes, we think with respect to intermodal, if there’s no retailer inventory levels stay low or the recession is severe impact in consumer spending and volumes don’t kind of pick back up, that would certainly impact the second half. We haven’t talked much about it, but we do have our other lines of business that account for 40% of our revenue, that tend to be less cyclical and less price and volume driven and more kind of longer term in nature. That will – that’s one of the things that’s changed if you look back at our history, those non-asset-based businesses are 40% of our revenue today. That’s up from about 30% five years ago. And it does provide more of a cushion.

Bascome Majors: As a housekeeping item, what sort of free cash flow outlook does the midpoint of your range get to? Thank you.

Geoff DeMartino: Yes, it’s around $250 million, so EBITDA and CapEx and a little bit of cash taxes.

Geoff DeMartino: Thank you.

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