Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 10 of 11

Phillip Yeager: Yes. And that’s where we utilize that margin per load day model. We really focused on how can we maximize that based on what’s going on in the broader market. I think you saw that our revenue per load was up 19% in Intermodal. So we feel like we’re staying very disciplined and really trying to pick our spots to create better balance and velocity in the network. We’re seeing a pretty disciplined start to overall bid season, obviously, more competitive than what we’ve seen before, but not anything different than what you’d expect in this environment. And so we’re really focusing on winning volume in the places where it benefits our network, benefits our drivers and ensuring that we maintain incumbency as well. So we’re really making sure that we lock in that incumbency in advance of RFP events, which we think will benefit us as well.

Thomas Wadewitz: So I guess when you put that together and you say the guide is $7 to $8, do you assume like a kind of a mid-single-digit decline in Intermodal pricing? Do you assume low single digit? What’s the kind of ballpark without being overly precise?

Geoff DeMartino: Yes, I would say not as strong as 2022 and better than truckload is kind of how we modeled it.

Thomas Wadewitz: Right. Do you think — okay. So I think that market view as kind of truckload down high single digits. So maybe something in mid-single digits or what something better than truck?

Geoff DeMartino: Yes, better than truck. Yes.

Thomas Wadewitz: Okay. All right. Great. Thank you for the time.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley. Your question please, Ravi.

Ravi Shanker: Thank you. Good evening, everyone. Sorry to revisit the whole midyear inflection topic again, but if I were to ask that question in a different way, what are your customers telling you is going to happen kind of in the back half of the year once we do have that mid-year inflection? Is it a case of we get inventories back down to normal and then we sort of bounce along the bottom here waiting for macro to improve? Or if like the macro conditions that we see right now remain reasonably the same, do they expect an actual restock and a real up cycle in the back half of the year going into ’24?

Phillip Yeager: Yes, Ravi, this is Phil. I think that’s the unknown with our customer base is how fast do inventories bleed down? And what does that require from an ordering for peak season. I’ve heard a myriad of different thoughts on that. I think what we’ve seen historically is a bleed down probably too far in overall inventories, and that leads to more snack sort of ordering and rush ordering, which typically leads to more West Coast transloading and really supports intermodal growth. And so we didn’t build that into our guidance, but I think that, that might delay the increase in ordering, but it also might exacerbate the extreme of the capacity tightness, if that makes sense.

Ravi Shanker: Got it. No, that is helpful. And I agree kind of that. That’s probably the biggest unknown out there. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of obviously, you said that you expect over-the-road conversion which is understandable as rail service improves. But again, your conversations kind of over the last few years, how has the kind of the rail service you’ve seen kind of has that kind of permanently shifted any customers towards truck? And also in the last couple of up cycles, when shippers are looking to restock, they look for service and speed and so they tend to kind of bias towards truck versus rail. Are you confident that will not happen in the next up cycle, hopefully, that’s in the back of this year?

Page 10 of 11