Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

John Plant: Good.

David Strauss: Good. The 17% commercial aero growth that you forecast, how does that look across the different segments? And on commercial transportation, I think you outlined kind of your volume assumptions. But what should we look for in terms of just commercial transportation revenue next year, I guess, including pass-through as well? Thanks.

John Plant: Yes. Let me deal with the latter part first, because I tend not to comment too much on individual segments growth anticipation thereof. For wheels, as an aggregate next year, my best assumption at this point in time is a $50 million to $60 million revenue decline and with the volume element of that being in the second half. I mean, it doesn’t have to be that way, David. It’s an assumption of what if there is a recession, its impact in Europe. I could get more optimistic about it, given I’ll say the labor strength and recent strength in Europe. But at this point in time, much will be cautious. Right now, build rates in the commercial truck and trailer business are pretty healthy and healthier probably than we thought going into the year.

Maybe that’s because now the supply chain issues that the commercial truck manufacturers have faced beginning to ease and they can be able to build that some of the really high backlog that they’ve got. So it’s no more an assumption, but if you can assume that we’ve got $50 million to $60 million of revenue decline in our numbers, in our guide at this point. In terms of the commercial aerospace percentage by segments, actually haven’t got in my mind, that will have to be a follow-up with Ken and let’s kind of go to him, but we tend not to pull it out anyway.

David Strauss: Yes, it was just — yes, I get that. I was just getting at, would you expect maybe fasteners to outgrow from a narrow perspective, just given how the press, the overall numbers still are there in that segment?

John Plant: If anything, at the moment, I would expect as we move from Q1 into Q2 and Q3, actually, our engine business will probably show a higher rate of commercial revenue growth because I think the engine manufacturers have a job of catch-up from 22 to accomplish as well as look forward to future rate increases. So at this stage, a very rough assumption against 17%, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it’s a little bit higher, maybe 20% in our engine business and a little bit lower elsewhere. And then I think we haven’t covered is the titanium that level obviously factor into 2023, as we go through it again, increasing as we go through the year.

Ken Giacobbe: Yes. So David, I’d put engines in the number one position, structures in number two and then fasteners in number three position.

David Strauss: Great. Thanks, guys.

John Plant: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question will come from Gautam Khanna with Cowen. Please go ahead. Gautam Khanna, your line is open.

John Plant: We can’t hear you, Gautam. Okay, lets move to the next.

Operator: Our next question will come from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Robert Spingarn: Hey, good morning.

John Plant: Hey, Rob.

Robert Spingarn: John, going back, 2019, 2020 and 2021 were pretty good years for you on price. And given that your LTAs are typically three to five years long, could you talk about the pricing opportunity this year and next and any opportunity to pick up share? And also if in these newer LTAs, can you build in mechanisms to pass-through freight costs and energy prices?