Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And then put ourselves hostage to not only aircraft build rates of actual production, but also the rest of the supply base if we will match to the weakest link in the supply chain. And because I don’t know where every one of those weak links are, I choose to take something which is fundamentally good, improving, significantly increasing, solid. If it turns out to be better, that will be great for us. I hope that gives you the context, Kristine?

Kristine Liwag : That’s great color, John. Thank you.

John Plant: Thank you.

Operator: And our next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Myles Walton: Thanks. Good morning. John, a quick clarification. Really appreciate the conservative look at the guidance. I’m sure there was frustration through most of 2022. I’m just curious, does the guidance line up with your operations? And then also just maybe a comment on the responsiveness of your operations if things started to go better, how responsive can you be to some of the upside rates that are out there for going out of 2023 into 2024?

John Plant: Yes. So obviously, because of the amount of people recruited last year, we are set up pretty well for the first quarter to be able to produce at this level or above. Should it reach those heavy rates of 38 and 42 as an example, or if Airbus are in the 57, 58? Provided we know that they’re heading that way, and we’ve got about six months lead time, we’ll be in good shape to meet it. We’ve been particularly good at being able to recruit labor to meet our needs. I’ll recognize that sometimes the stability of that labor hasn’t been everything we’d wanted, but getting the headline numbers has been something which we’ve been very comfortable with. We’ve put increased disciplines around our own recruitment process to make sure we have a higher level of retention, improved training routine, et cetera.

So I think we’re doing all the right things in the same way as we set ourselves up for the initial aerospace ramp to be in a good condition. And so fundamentally, I believe that we’ll be able to respond to meet those customer demands. Clearly — for example, if Airbus got a hit rate 65 for A320s in mid-2024s that’s still the current number. Then, again, knowing it sooner rather than later is highly beneficial to us and also the commensurate engine rate builds from our customers. I think you saw last quarter my commentary that, we were able to produce at a fundamentally higher rate only to get cut back, because the other parts of the supply chain were there. So I feel reasonably confident, Myles, in there to do that.

Myles Walton: Thanks a lot. Thanks.

John Plant: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question will come from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Please, go ahead.

Seth Seifman: Hey, thanks very much and good morning, everyone.

John Plant: Hey, Seth.

Seth Seifman: John, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the profitability in engine products, and we saw kind of in the first half kind of mid-27% type of margin and then, it’s come down in the second half and kind of makes sense that new hires would weigh on the profitability there. But, I guess, when we think about what’s the level setting on the right margin for this business, I think there was a thought that maybe the 27% we saw in the first half was a good margin and then with growth, you’d see incrementals above that, and there’d be some expansion. But, I guess, from a long-term perspective, how should we think about where that shakes out?