Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (NASDAQ:HST) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (NASDAQ:HST) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript November 2, 2023

Jaime Marcus: Thank you and good morning. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws as described in our filings with the SEC. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed. And we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. In addition on today’s call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDAre and comparable hotel level results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information in yesterday’s earnings press release, in our 8-K filed with the SEC and the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com.

With me on today’s call are Jim Risoleo, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Risoleo: Thank you, Jaime, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Before we turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating wildfires that occurred on the island of Maui this past August. All of us at Host were deeply saddened by the loss of life and heartbreaking impact on local communities. As the largest hotel real estate owner on Maui for over 20 years, Host has long shared a connection to the island and helping to support the community through this difficult time is important to our company. We are proud to have aided recovery and rebuilding efforts, donating more than $250,000 to emergency response and relief organizations, as well as providing direct financial assistance and relief to our hotels employees.

We also provided food and shelter to these employees, their families and emergency response teams. The strength and resilience of the Maui community inspires us and we are committed to supporting them as the recovery continues. Now let’s move to our results for the quarter. Please note that the results presented on today’s call represent the comparable hotel portfolio, which includes all three Maui resorts and continues to exclude the Ritz-Carlton Naples in Hyatt Regency Coconut Point. When applicable, we will provide estimated impacts from Maui to certain results to provide a more comprehensive view of business trends in the quarter. During the third quarter, we delivered a comparable hotel RevPAR improvement of 1.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022.

Our RevPAR performance for the quarter was driven by an occupancy increase of 150 basis points led by our convention hotels in downtown locations. Overall, Maui had less of an impact on our results than we initially expected as we were able to replace high rated transient business with recovery and relief group business, which impacted our demand mix this quarter. We delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $361 million, which includes $54 million of business interruption proceeds from Hurricane Ian and delivered adjusted FFO per share of $0.41 beating consensus on both metrics. Third quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 26.6% exceeded 2019 by 10 basis points and this marks the sixth consecutive quarter since the onset of the pandemic that we have achieved TRevPAR, RevPAR, comparable hotel EBITDA and margins ahead of 2019 levels.

Comparable hotel RevPAR for October is expected to be approximately $229, a 2.4% improvement over 2022. We estimate that the Maui wildfires impacted third quarter comparable hotel RevPAR by 60 basis points, comparable hotel TRevPAR by 120 basis points, and comparable hotel EBITDA by $4.5 million. Our risk management team is continuing to engage with our insurers about potential business interruption coverage and the timing and amounts of any potential proceeds are not yet known. Despite the wildfires on Maui, which we expect will impact our full year RevPAR guidance by 50 basis points, we maintained the midpoint of our previous full year expected comparable hotel RevPAR growth at 8% and tightened our full year RevPAR growth guidance range to 7.25% to 8.75%.

At the midpoint of our guidance, full year 2023 comparable hotel EBITDA is forecasted to be 8.5% above 2019 with comparable hotel RevPAR growth 5.6% greater than 2019. As we look at the current macro picture, we continue to be optimistic about the state of travel for several reasons. First, group business continues to improve. During the quarter, we booked 245,000 group rooms through 2023 and total group revenue pace is now 6.7% ahead of the same time 2019, up from 4.2% as of the second quarter. Even without the recovery in relief groups on Maui, total group revenue would have been above both 2022 and 2019. The group booking window continues to extend and we are pleased with the base we have on the books for next year. Second, business transient demand continued its gradual improvement during the third quarter.

Business transient revenue was up approximately 9% to 2022 and demand improved 5% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Overall, business transient revenue is down approximately 16% compared to 2019, with room nights down approximately 20%. Room nights have gradually improved throughout the year. In January, we were down nearly 23% to 2019. And in September, we were down just 17% to 2019. We see the continued evolution of business travel, as a tailwind in the future. Third, leisure rates at our resorts remain well above 2019 levels, despite continued moderation in the third quarter as expected. For context, transient rates at our resorts were 56% above 2019 in the third quarter, which is particularly impressive when considering that this excludes the benefits from our two newly renovated noncomparable hotels in Florida and includes the impact from our three resorts on Maui.

Fourth, we expect international demand to be a positive trend going forward. International inbound air traffic increased to 88% of 2019 levels in September, up from 80% in June. At the same time, international outbound air traffic increased to 118% of 2019 levels, after hovering near 108% since January, which indicates that consumers continue to prioritize travel. As evidenced by recent booking volume trends for US airlines, the international imbalance is likely to revert to 2019 levels over time. Most importantly, we are not seeing evidence in weaken consumer at our hotels. Food and beverage outlet revenues remained both above 2022 and 2019, driven by resorts and nonresort alike, which is encouraging, given that occupancy still lags 2019 levels.

Golf and small revenues also remained significantly ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Taken together, we believe this indicates that consumers continue to desire and ability to spend on experiences at our hotels. Moving to our reconstruction efforts following Hurricane Ian. The newly transformed Ritz-Carlton Naples has been very well received since its reopening in July and we are optimistic that the resort is set up to exceed our underwriting expectations. Transient rates were 75% above 2019 for the second half of this year, driven by the increased suite mix in the new Vanderbilt Tower. Looking forward to festive season, club-level room night booking pace is up more than 25% over the same time in 2019 with an ADR premium of almost $900 and suite bookings are pacing up 125% with a more than $1,300 rate increase over 2019.

We are proud of the well-deserved tension that Ritz-Carlton Naples is receiving, including regaining the coveted AAA five-diamond designation and we look forward to seeing the results it delivers in the years to come. In terms of insurance proceeds related to Hurricane Ian, to-date, we have received $208 million of the expected potential insurance recovery of approximately $310 million for covered costs. During the third quarter, we received $54 million of business interruption proceeds, and we expect to receive an additional $26 million of business interruption proceeds in the fourth quarter. Turning to group. Revenue exceeded 2022 by 10% in the third quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter group revenue exceeded 2019. Definite group room nights on the books for 2023 increased to 4 million in the third quarter, which represents approximately 110% of comparable full year 2022 actual group room nights, up from 103% as of the second quarter.

For full year 2023, total group revenue pace is up approximately 20% to the same time last year, and up 6.7% to the same time 2019 in part due to recovery and relief groups on Maui. Group rate on the books is up 7% at the same time last year, a 40 basis point increase since the second quarter. Looking ahead to 2024, we have 2.6 million definite group room nights on the books, a 15% increase since the second quarter. Total group revenue pace is up 13% at the same time last year, driven fairly evenly by room nights and rates. We are encouraged by the ongoing strength of group, as evidenced by increasing pace, lengthening booking windows and improving citywide calendars. Moving to portfolio reinvestment. We are excited to announce that we reached an agreement with Hyatt to complete transformational reinvestment capital projects at six properties in our portfolio.

The properties include the Grand Hyatt, Atlanta; the Grand Hyatt, Washington D.C.; the Grand Hyatt, San Diego; the Hyatt Regency, Austin; the Hyatt Regency, Capitol Hill; and the Hyatt Regency, Reston. Building on the success of the Marriott transformational capital program, we believe these portfolio investments will position the targeted hotels to compete better in their respective markets, while enhancing long-term performance. Hyatt has agreed to provide us with priority returns on these investments. Additionally, Hyatt will provide $40 million in operating profit guarantees as protection for the anticipated disruption associated with the incremental investment. Our total investment is expected to be approximately $550 million to $600 million, two-thirds of which we were planning to invest as part of our capital plan over the next few years.

We expect to invest between $125 million and $200 million per year over the next three to four years on this program. We are targeting stabilized annual cash-on-cash returns in the low double digits on our incremental investment through a combination of enhanced owners’ priority returns and RevPAR index share gains. Turning to our capital expenditure guidance for 2023, we tightened the range to $615 million to $695 million, which includes approximately $200 million to $230 million of investment for redevelopment, repositioning and ROI projects and $150 million to $175 million for hurricane restoration work. Major capital expenditure projects included the December completion of a transformational renovation at the Fairmont Kea Lani, as well as the start of construction at the Finishing Canyon Suites Villas and the luxury condominium development at Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort.

Lastly, we are well underway with the repositioning renovation of the Hilton Singer Island, which is expected to be complete in the first quarter of 2024, and we are working with Hilton to top brand the hotel as a Curio Collection Resort. We are targeting a stabilized cash-on-cash return in the mid-teens on our repositioning investment. As we have said many times before, our exceptional balance sheet puts us in a position to execute on multiple fronts, which is what you saw us do during the third quarter. We continue to reinvest in our portfolio, and we believe our comprehensive renovations is while enhancing the EBITDA growth of our portfolio well into the future. We announced an exciting transformational capital program with Hyatt. We purchased approximately $100 million of stock and return capital to shareholders through a 20% increase in our quarterly dividend.

We continue to be optimistic about the state of travel and we believe Host is very well positioned to outperform in the current economic environment. With that, I will turn the call over to Sourav.

Sourav Ghosh: Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Building on Jim’s comments, I will go into detail on our third quarter operations, our updated 2023 guidance, our balance sheet and our dividend. Starting with business mix, we estimate that Maui impacted overall transient revenue by 450 basis points, which skewed the comparison this quarter, resulting in transient revenue down 330 basis points to the third quarter of 2022. We were encouraged that transient rates at resorts remained 56% higher than 2019 despite the impact from Maui and the renovation at the one Hotel South Beach, which contributed to the decline over last year. As expected during the third quarter, we continued to see a normalization in transient rates at resorts compared to 2022.

Business transient revenue was approximately 9% above the third quarter of 2022. Business transient rooms sold remain approximately 20% below 2019 levels, but it’s worth noting that New York, San Francisco and Denver three of our largest business transient markets were within 10% of 2019 room nights in the third quarter. Looking at top business transient customers, large consulting and audit firms continue to drive the biggest share of business travel room nights but they’re also the largest contributor to room night decline compared to 2019. Encouragingly, during the third quarter large technology companies showed room night growth compared to 2019. Turning to group. Group room revenues were 10% above the third quarter of 2022, driven by a rate increase of 8%.

It is worth noting that these results were skewed higher by the recovery and relief groups at our Maui Resorts, which positively impacted group room revenue. In the quarter for the quarter, group room night bookings were up 49% compared to last year and 85% compared to 2019 with growth driven by New York, Phoenix and San Francisco as our convention hotels continue to focus on building a strong in-house group base. Maui also contributed to the strong in the quarter for the quarter bookings, but results would still have been up meaningfully excluding its contribution. We are encouraged by the continued recovery of international arrivals San Francisco, which stood at 87% of 2019 levels in the third quarter, up from 76% in the first quarter driven by increased airlift from Asia.

With respect to group mix, corporate group room revenue was up 8% in the third quarter, driven by 7% rate growth. Association Group revenue was down 11% in the third quarter compared to last year led by a decline in room nights as the citywide recovery remains uneven. Social, Military, Educational, Religious and Fraternal or SMERF Group revenue was up 39% in the third quarter, driven by recovery and relief room nights on Maui, which are designated in the smart category. Excluding Maui, room night growth in this category would still have been up over 7% led by our hotels in New York and Washington D.C. Looking ahead, our 2024 total group revenue pace is 13% ahead of the same time last year and we continue to be encouraged by the citywide booking pace in markets such as Seattle, New Orleans and San Diego.

All of which have citywide group room nights meaningfully ahead of the same time last year. Shifting gears to margin performance. Our third quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin came in at 26.6%, which is 10 basis points above the third quarter of 2019. Total comparable expenses grew 5.5% over 2019 while total comparable revenues were up 5.6%. As we have said many times before, we are encouraged that comparable hotel EBITDA margin remains above 2019 despite elevated expense inflation over the past four years and occupancy still 8-points below 2019. As Jim mentioned, despite the impact of the wildfires in Maui, we maintained the midpoint of our previous full year expected comparable hotel RevPAR growth at 8% and tightened our full year RevPAR growth guidance range to 7.25% to 8.75%.

Our guidance range continues to contemplate varying degrees of moderating growth in the fourth quarter. We would expect year-over-year comparable hotel RevPAR percentage changes in the fourth quarter, to be down low single digits at the bottom end to up low single digits at the top end, with the range driven, primarily by the evolving nature of demand on Maui. We expect fourth quarter operational results to roughly follow 2019 quarterly seasonal trends, as provided on page 17 of our supplemental financial information which at the midpoint of our guidance implies slightly positive fourth quarter RevPAR growth. At the midpoint, we would expect full year adjusted EBITAre of $1.620 billion. Please note that our adjusted EBITDAre guidance includes $54 million of business interruption proceeds, which we received in the third quarter and an additional $26 million which we expect to collect in the fourth quarter, all of which is related to Hurricane Ian.

Excluding the impacts of business interruption our revised full year comparable hotel EBITDA midpoint only declined $8 million versus the second quarter, despite a full year estimated impact of $25 million from Maui. It is important to remember that, although business interruption proceeds are one-time in nature we expect the Ritz-Carlton Naples and Hyatt Regency Coconut Point to contribute a full year of EBITDA in 2024. As a reminder, comparable hotel EBITDA and comparable hotel EBITDA margin are not affected by operational results or business interruption proceeds related to these two resorts as they are considered non-comparable at this time. Shifting to margins. As we have discussed over the past few quarters, year-over-year we expect comparable hotel EBITDA margins to be down 210 basis points at the low end of our guidance to down 170 basis points at the high end, due to stable staffing levels at our hotels, higher utility, and insurance expenses, and lower attrition and cancellation fees.

For these reasons, we do not believe 2022 represents a stabilized comparison for margins. Relative to 2019, which we believe is a more representative year for margin comparison, we expect margins this year to be up 20 basis points at the low end of our guidance to up 60 points at the high end. This margin expansion is despite impacts from Maui, occupancy still meaningfully below 2019 levels, moderating attrition and cancellation revenues and expense inflation. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position. The $163 million loan to the buyer of the Sheraton Boston was repaid in full during the third quarter. Our weighted average maturity is 4.5 years, at a weighted average interest rate of 4.6%. We have a balanced maturity schedule with our next maturity of $400 million coming due in April 2024.

We ended the third quarter at 2.1 times leverage, and we have $2.6 billion of total available liquidity, which includes $218 million of FF&E reserves and full availability of our $1.5 billion credit facility. In addition, we repurchased 6.3 million shares at an average price of $15.90 per share bringing our total repurchases for the quarter to $100 million. Year-to-date, we have repurchased 9.5 million shares at an average price of $15.82, bringing our total repurchases for the year to $150 million. We have approximately $823 million of remaining capacity under our repurchase program, and we will continue to be opportunistic when executing share repurchases. We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share, an increase of $0.03 or 20% over our second quarter dividend.

Though, we expect to maintain our quarterly dividend at a sustainable level taking into consideration potential macroeconomic factors, all future dividends are subject to approval by the company’s Board of Directors. We remain optimistic on the future of our business and travel overall. We believe our portfolio, our balance sheet, and our team are well positioned to continue outperforming. As we have shown Host can do it all and we will continue to be strategic in the current macroeconomic environment. With that, we would be happy to take your questions. To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. At this time, we will conducting our question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question is coming from Aryeh Klein with BMO. Your line is live.

Aryeh Klein: Thanks, and good morning. Maybe just on the group bookings pace. It’s up 30% for next year. Curious what you’re seeing from the end of the quarter for the quarter bookings and do you think that bookings pace for next year ultimately narrows as maybe booking windows extend? And then if you could just touch on which markets looks strongest and weakest for next year from a group standpoint?

Sourav Ghosh: Sure. So we saw meaningful in the quarter for the quarter bookings for the third quarter. That trend seems to be pretty consistent. We actually picked up 85% more relative to 2019 in Q3 in the quarter for the quarter. When we looked at the 245,000 group room nights that Jim spoke to that we picked up in Q3 for Q3 and Q4 about 46% of that was a pickup for Q3 and about 54% of that was about a pickup for Q4. Going into next year, as the booking window extends, we do expect that to moderate somewhat just because there wouldn’t be any capacity left frankly at the hotels. So to put that into perspective in the fourth quarter booking window extended by about 10 days, which effectively was it was 80 days before and it’s like 90 days now.

And then all future arrivals that extended by 15 days. So we’re definitely seeing that extend for — in the year for the year as well as for future years. So you will see that moderation into next year. As it relates to markets that we expect will do well for next year we’re certainly seeing strength to our portfolio as meaningful as San Diego Orlando and D.C. Overall citywide pace for 2024 is strong in Seattle, Boston, New Orleans and Miami as well. What’s interesting is right now when you look at 2024 the city-wide room night pace is actually 90% of 2019 actuals which is up from 83% which we saw at the end of Q2.

Aryeh Klein: Thanks. Appreciate the color.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Your line is live.

Michael Bellisario: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just on the Hyatt Capital program for those six hotels maybe just on average, but when were they all last renovated? What’s the current RevPAR penetration index and then do you expect to get the same 3- to 5-point lift that you had underwrote for the Marriott program? Thank you.

Jim Risoleo: Yes, Mike. We’ll be happy to gather that information specifically and share it with you. But suffice it to say that we and Hyatt both believe that these properties were in need of a transformational comprehensive renovation. We were going to undertake work at all six of these hotels. About two-thirds of the work that we agreed to with Hyatt in return for the enhanced owner priorities and the $40 million guarantee to support disruption. So we see returns in the low-teens as we saw with the Marriott transformational capital program and that will be driven by the enhanced owner priority as well as yield index gains. So I think that we have a very high degree of comfort given the performance of the assets in the Marriott program just to refresh your recollection that was 16 properties.

They’re not all stabilized yet due to where we are but due to certain properties and certain competitive sets like New York, in particular, having been closed for a longer time than our property. But the assets that we have seen have delivered truly outsized yield index gains. We had underwritten three to five points and we’re meaningfully above that. So, we’re excited to be able to partner with Hyatt as their largest owner. And really looking forward to getting on with this program which we will complete over the next three to four years.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bill Crow with Raymond James. Your line is live.

Bill Crow: Thanks. Good morning Jim and Sourav. Point of clarifications Sourav, is it fair to say you still have about $40 million in potential BI recoveries that could occur next year right $250 million through the third quarter plus some in the fourth? And then the GAAP to $310 million, is that the right way to think about it?

Sourav Ghosh: Yes, we still plan to get to the $310 million. We’re working with our insurers right now. There will be an allocation between BI and property. So far what the letter we have got from our insurers is that we will be — they’re okay with the $80 million of BI. That’s why we have $26 million of BI in our forecast. We are still working with the insurers to collect on the balance Don’t know what that number exactly is going to be. It won’t be all of the remaining to get to the 310 but certainly more than the $80 million. So, we do expect some BI next year that amount. We are still working with our insurers as to what that is going to be.

Bill Crow: All right. Thanks. And then my question really is I hear you on the comparison of the margins versus 2019 instead of 2022. In a few months we’re going to be talking about 2024 versus 2023. And I’m thinking the question I’ve been asking is a number of the REITs is what sort of topline growth that we’ll make our own decision about what that is. But how much do you need before you could get flat EBITDA margins next year? Is it a 4% number?

Jim Risoleo: Bill that’s the question. It’s really difficult to answer given where we are with respect to the budgeting process. What I can share with you at this time is we would anticipate wage growth next year in the 4% to 5% range. Where insurance costs are going to come in they’re certainly baked through next June because that the renewal is year-to-year and it renews June one of every year or July 1 of every year I guess through June 30th. So, question mark will be what happens in insurance renewal and there are a lot of variables that can impact that. And as we get granular on each hotel budget, we will look for opportunities to continue to enhance improvements in productivity and utilize technology as we have been doing.