Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:HEP) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Kalei Akamine: Got it. I appreciate that. My second question is on Waha Gas, so recently the benchmarks there touched to zero, because the takeaway situation is very tight and it doesn’t get fixed until the second half 2023. So I am wondering what that means for the operating cost for Navajo and also with hydrotreating cost?

Tim Go: Yeah. We have watched that differential in the Southwest for natural gas come down, it’s surprising. We were pleased with it. It definitely helps us on operating costs as we have seen natural gas prices go high pretty much across the country earlier in the year. So we are happy to see that. Overall, I think, we have made these comments before, but for every dollar plus or minus in natural gas, we normally see about a $44 million change in our overall EBITDA on an annual basis across all of our fleets. So we watch energy prices pretty carefully.

Kalei Akamine: I appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Connor Lynagh from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Connor Lynagh: Yeah. Thanks. Just wanted to think about 2023 a little bit here, you were talking about higher turnarounds, but then I am also thinking through, obviously, a reduced cost on Renewables. So, can you help us walk through the big puts and takes on CapEx and just how we should think about those big cost items for next year?

Mike Jennings: Yeah. I think at a high level, we are going to be providing specific guidance for CapEx as we roll into the coming year. But higher maintenance expense, planned maintenance around turnarounds, obviously lower on Renewables. Those probably largely offset, and again, we will update the guidance come February timeframe.

Connor Lynagh: Okay. So net-net, you are kind of about the same place 2023 versus 2022 is the takeaway there?

Mike Jennings: Maybe a little higher, but roughly.

Connor Lynagh: Okay. Got it. Maybe one just higher level structural one, where do you see pricing in your core markets, you guys obviously have a lot of sort of niche market exposure. Where do you see pricing being set off of, if that makes sense? So in your mid-cycle forecast previously, you basically pointed to a Gulf Coast crack plus transportation costs. Do you feel like that’s the right way to think about it, do you think you are being more priced off of coastal markets, how do you think about that on a go-forward basis?

Tim Go: Yeah. I will take a shot at that, Connor. So we believe that the East Coast — the marginal East Coast refining economics are set off of historically the European imports that would come in. Clearly, that has changed given the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the natural gas price increases that they are seeing over there, part of the trade shift flows that have occurred through the conflict. And really some of the marginal barrels that are coming into the East Coast now are really coming from Asia, which actually creates more of a structure, more of a higher cost price setting mechanism for us. We believe the Gulf Coast is basically set off the East Coast and then our Mid-Con refineries are set off the Gulf Coast. So we think we see a structural advantage that we have versus the Gulf Coast today that we think we have versus the East Coast today and then we think we have versus the marginal price setting mechanism, which today is really the Asia import barrels coming in.

So as we look at the structure, those are all the things we are looking at, both from a op cost standpoint, we know we have a natural gas advantage from a crude differential standpoint and we know with the strength of WCS and the WTI and there that you are seeing right now that we believe we have a structural advantage there. And then when you look at the product placement advantage, where we see a strong niche market for our products both for diesel and for gasoline. We think we have advantages again over a marginal producer.