Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jeremy Ford: Yes, so you said that we’ve seen I’d say a reasonably consistent trend down in non-interest bearing from a mixed perspective. We expect that likely continues. We’ve got a good solid base of non-interest sparing related to our treasury services offerings that we provide to customers. That said, as rates move higher, obviously the appetite from customers to move their excess deposits into interest-bearing products continues to grow. And so, we would expect to see non-interest-bearing deposits decline at least from our perspective the next couple of quarters and really remixing into interest-bearing. So, our view is deposits remain reasonably steady and stable from here for the next couple of quarters. But we continue to remix from non-interest-bearing into interest-bearing products over time.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay, great. That’s helpful. And then I guess just on the NII and the NIM obviously, maybe a little bit, if your guys 2.5% to — 2% to 5% I guess, for the full year, are you guys implying maybe that NII in 4Q takes a similar step down as we saw this quarter. I guess on a smaller balance sheet, and the NIM kind of holds in a little bit better?

Jeremy Ford : Yes, I think from a — so we’ll talk about NII first, so from an NII perspective, we’re expecting it will continue to trend modestly lower, not a significant step function lower, but modestly lower as you noted, the balance sheet has contracted modestly. And from an overall yield perspective, we are expecting deposit costs to continue to move higher. So, without a significant shift or change in the Fed funds rate, our loan yields are moving higher, but moving higher at a much more — pace versus where deposit yields are. And we do expect to see those deposit yields move higher. So, from an NII perspective, we’d expect it to continue to step lower from a NIM perspective. We’d also expect that to continue to trend lower.

I think we’ve said, that NIM over time likely moves toward 2.95 [ph]. And I think depending on the number of rate movements through the Federal Reserve, which — with each rate movement, we’ve said we would expect further deterioration in NIM, I think we’re expecting them to be between 2.90% and 3%, given our current rate expectations that we outlined in our prepared comments.

Unidentified Analyst : That was — that’s very helpful. And I guess the last thing I wanted to hit on was just the provision going forward. Obviously, you guys tightened the guidance a little bit this quarter. I’m just kind of wondering what you guys are seeing into 2024 as it relates to the provision line and charge-offs. And it sounded like, I mean, just based on the guidance that you guys are a little bit more optimistic or the scenario’s a little more optimistic on the economy from here.

Jeremy Ford : Yes, I think, with — as we try to say in our prepared comments, the ACL, which changes which drives the provision can be volatile from quarter to quarter. As you saw last quarter, we took a pretty significant provision just under $15 million this quarter near zero. And so, the economic outlook can move and change that obviously will impact it pretty can — impact it pretty substantially. From a credit management perspective, as I noted in my comments, we haven’t seen any material deterioration in law or large swaths of the portfolio. As we noted we’re looking at office closely, we’re looking at retail closely, we’re looking across the portfolio for any negative migration as it relates to interest rates and overall interest payments relative to cash flows.

But again, to date, we haven’t seen anything systemic in the portfolio that would cause us to expect the charge-off, step up materially. But again, we highlight in all of our comments and try to put the announcement out there that the allowance and therefore provision can be volatile based on the economic scenarios quarter to quarter.

Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your line.

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