Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) is sometimes grouped with the likes of Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), which are integrated oil and gas Supermajors. But there’s one difference: Hess isn’t a Supermajor, far from it.
Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES), the $25 billion market cap company, is transitioning into a higher growth exploration and production (E&P) company. Yet, the company is still trading like an integrated oil and gas operator.
Head scratching valuation
When you take a look at the valuation, one of the things that annoys me is that Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) gets no respect. Trading at 7 times earnings, Hess is well below the U.S. Supermajors, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), which trade at 9.6 times and 11 times, respectively.
Enter into evidence, previous case studies. ConocoPhillips spun off its downstream business as Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) back in 2012. Now ConocoPhillips is trading at 10.7 times earnings and Phillips at 7 times.
The other example is Marathon. The company split its downstream and upstream businesses back in 2011. Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC) (the downstream company) trades at 7 times earnings, and Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) (the upstream company) trades at 14.7 times.
See the issue here? Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES), at 7 times earnings, is trading as if it’s a downstream operator, when in reality it’s moving toward becoming a full blown upstream operator.
I believe the company should trade at a modest 10 times earnings. If the market realizes its mistake and the company enjoys a multiple expansion 10 times earnings, the potential is $100 per share, or 40% upside from current levels.
Enter the Bakken
Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) has impressive exposure to the rapid growth Bakken shale. The Bakken shale play is expected to remain one of the top oil and gas plays in the U.S. for some time to come, with output expected to double by 2015.
The Bakken accounts for around 19% of Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES)’ total production and 23% of reserves. What’s more is the shale play is expected to contribute nearly 50% of volume growth over the next half decade.
The good news doesn’t stop there. Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) has grown Bakken production at a 67% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, going from producing a mere 5 Mboe/d at the start of 2008 to 64 Mboe/d at the end of 2012. All this while lowering well costs, as Hess believes it is one of the lowest cost operators in the Bakken.
Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES)’ 2012 well costs for the Bakken came in at $9 million per well, but Hess believes its proxy peers have an average well cost of $10 million while pure-play Bakken operators have a $9.4 million cost per well.
Bright future
The next few years should be bright for both Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) and its shareholders. Hess has a five year plan, and in essence we’re not even in inning 6 of this 9 inning game.
By the end of 2015, the company plans to be completely out of the downstream business, which includes divesting its retail (over 1,300 gas stations) and marketing businesses (including power plants and trading). The other big goal is to be fully monetizing its Bakken assets by then.
These moves are all shareholder positives. Additional asset sales, namely Thailand and Indonesia, will further provide more capital for dividends and buybacks. Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) has already announced a dividend boost to $1 annually, which is nearly a 1.4% dividend yield on current levels, and the company also has a $4 billion buyback plan, which is around 15% of outstanding shares.
