So why the optimism?
As fellow Fool Eric Bleeker noted on Wednesday, Samsung was all set to release its latest flagship smartphone, the Galaxy S4, yesterday evening. Given Samsung’s incorporation of OLED tech in its past Galaxy phones — and considering the fact the Korean conglomerate is currently responsible for the vast majority of Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:PANL)’s total sales — anxious investors have remained on the edges of their seats to confirm to what extent (if at all) the Galaxy S4 would utilize Universal’s OLED materials in its screens.
The Galaxy S4 will go on sale next month and boasts a massive 5-inch AMOLED screen — up from 4.8 inches in the Galaxy S III — with an impressive pixel density at 441 pixels per inch. As a basis for comparison, note Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)‘s iPhone 5 has a pixel density of just 326 pixels per inch.
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean Apple fans will be swayed, especially when we remember CEO Tim Cook’s recent assertion that OLED screens’ color saturation is “awful,” while at the same time noting Apple’s own retina displays are nearly twice as bright. Even so, those comments seemed especially interesting after I noticed that, just a few days earlier, Apple may have quietly hired an OLED expert away from Korean electronics giant LG Display Co Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:LPL), fueling further speculation of Cupertino’s interest in the versatile technology.
In addition, just this morning analyst Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) added fuel to the fire by suggesting that, based on his channel checks, Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:PANL) remains “well positioned to benefit from [Samsung’s] upcoming Galaxy S4 ramp given its leverage to both red and green phosphorescent (e.g. emitter and host) materials” in the design of its display.
What’s more, Lee estimated Universal Display could end up collecting between three and four times as much revenue from each Galaxy S4 device as it did from every S III smartphone, “given its expansion in materials supplied from one to three types.”
Of course, Lee’s perspective should come as little surprise considering the fact he has long remained a proponent for Universal Display’s business and currently holds a $41 price target for its shares.
The bear case
On the other end of the analyst spectrum, let’s not forget Piper Jaffray analyst Jagadish Iyer who, just a few weeks ago, lowered his firm’s price target for shares of Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:PANL) from $18 to $16 after voicing concern that Samsung may also be using green host materials from Japanese OLED supplier Nippon Steel.
While Iyer’s comments helped shares of Universal Display fall by as much as 13% that day, his concerns appeared to be considerably overblown after the company skyrocketed 16% just a few days later following its solid fourth-quarter earnings results.